Driven by regulatory breakthroughs, structural fund inflows, and market confidence recovery, Bitcoin is once again approaching its historical high point. With the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" advancing to the final Senate vote, a channel for billions of dollars to flow into the crypto market is about to open. The US SEC has simultaneously initiated a new round of crypto rule drafting, releasing an unprecedented policy-friendly signal.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin's non-liquid supply has reached a new high, with chips steadily migrating from short-term speculators to long-term holders. Spot ETF continues to attract funds, with low funding rates, indicating that this rally is not overheated but driven by institutional buying and structural tightening.

Bitcoin is moving beyond its early speculative logic and entering a more mature, stable, capital-driven new cycle. While market sentiment remains restrained and volatility has not yet expanded, traders and institutions have differing views on new highs. BlockBeats has compiled these perspectives for readers' reference.

Trader Analysis

Positions Not Breaking New High, Price Breaking First = Healthy Rise?

@CryptoPainter_X

BTC's network-wide positions are finally approaching the historical highest level!

There's still a $2.9 billion space to reach the previous high of $69.568 billion in positions;

The current price is only $2,000 away from breaking the new high, so even if completely pulled by futures, it may not necessarily increase positions by $2.9 billion, meaning it's difficult to form a divergence between positions and price;

If the price pulls back and positions gradually increase or even exceed the historical highest level after the pullback, a position divergence might form, similar to the major structural bull top divergence that occurred in late 2021.

So the current logic is simple: price breaking new high before positions break indicates the market is still not excessively FOMO, which is healthy!

If positions break new high before price, it represents excessive speculative sentiment, and a position-killing trend will easily emerge.

"Rising Instead of Falling": Active Buying Dissolves Selling Pressure

@biupa

According to the Coinkarma indicator, Bitcoin's "rising instead of falling" continues

Yesterday in the Tencent meeting live broadcast, I believed there would be a continued upward breakthrough to test previous highs in late May. On one hand, there's an expectation of pulling up before the Bitcoin conference, and on the other hand, Bitcoin's LIQ is continuously improving from the Coinkarma indicator. LIQ measures the difference between upper and lower order book values.

... [rest of the text continues in the same manner]

However>, we discovered that after May 14, the concentration curve suddenly stopped declining around 8.2% and seemed to be about to turn upward again again8.is neither high nor low.

If the price drops drop and return to the concentration concentration area, the the concentration curve will quickly will quickly rise rise and brew greater volatility. to on the chart 2025.1.23, price correction caused concentration to from high levels and then upward,, after which price volatprice volatvolatility was amplified.

Another possibility is that prices continue to rise, then the concentration curve curve curve only pause briefly before continuing downward. Similar to the annotation on.3 situation.

In summary, the current concentration curve does not smoothly decline but pauses midway, bringing, bringing uncertainty to market direction. Through this indicator, we can hardly guess whether to long or short, the it only tells us the may be about a>

However, when concentration rises to a certain height, considering longing volatility would be a goodest choice.

CryptoQuant: No No Signs of Market Overheating

Whenever cryptocurrency prices surge strongly, causing many previously loss-making tokens to quickly turn profitable, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Profit and Loss Ratio rises above 200. The higher this indicator soars,,, the market is approaching an "overhe"he" ""selling pressure" stage.

Currently, this indicator is at is at 99, so there not yet signs of market overheating. If this moving average continues above 200, it will be a clear signal that market market sentiment enters a new frenzy period. In other words, the market may still continue to create new highs, but the "easy fuel" driving profit and loss ratio increase has basically been exhausted, and subsequent stronger price momentum or volatwillility to this indicator rise again.

As I said yesterday, the third "compression period" of this cycle is precisely the key elastic force to push this indicator beyond 200 and enter the overheated stage.

Matrixport: Spot Buying Drives, Long-term Funds Gradually Replace Short-term Speculation

Bitcoin market repeats historical trend: Price approaches newhs uncleared contracts also rise to a historical high of $34 billion, rates remain to. This current trend is driven by spot, spot buying, than not leveraged contracts.

Low funding limited market speculative bubble,, and violent callback risks caused by leverage are relatively low. Affected by this,ility in this cycle remains low, with and significant short-term fluctuations are unlikely.

Bitcoin market structure is evolving, with long---gradually replacing short-term speculation,, becoming the main driving force.

10x Research: Long-term Holders' Coin Holdings Still Rising,, Cycle Not Ended

On-chain data analysis shows that in 2025, Bitcoin "OG wallets" - early investors, miners, and old platform wallets have been continuously distributing Bitcoin. This is not panic selling, but planned, rhythmic asset rotation, with Bitcoin steadily flowing to high-net-worth individuals, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy. Meanwhile, trading platform coin holdings remain low, and market volatis suppressed.

This market trend is slow, strategic strategic, and institution-led. As long as large holders can continue absorbing selling pressure, Bitcoin still has room to rise. Bitcoin's historical rules show that true risk is not when long-term holders start selling, but when they stop selling. That's when demand begins weakening, fails, investors to become "passive holders".

Currently, long-term holders' coin holdings continue rising, indicating this cycle has not ended.. We accurately predicted Bitcoin through $84,500 500, then rising to $95,000 and $106,000. Our next target is $122,000, still based on our macro cycle and behavioral capital flow analysis p models that have successfully identified major turning points.

QCP: FOMO After New High

30-bondJapan's bond yield broke 3%, crossing historical threshold. Japan's continuously's inflating debt issue has long been a potential concern, now approaching critical point. If this. continues and fiscal concerns intensify, market's may re-evaluate Japanese risk, potentially causing short-term yen appreciation. Japanese market volatility has begun affecting global markets. US 30-year bond yield re-breaks 5%, with investors focusing on US debt path.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin today attempted breaking $108,000 but failed maintaining momentum. Current Current price trend closely relates to Strategy and Metaplanet's increasing holdings, currently main buying sources. But markets increasingly worry they might represent "marginal buyers'" final force. If their purchases slow, might trigger other investors profit-taking, potentially reversing current upward trend.

Despite continuous macro head,winincluding bond yield surge, tariff escalation, and potential US3-and Q4 stagflation risks Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience past month. However, once price successfully breaking historical highs, might trigger new FOMO sentiment, pulling sideline observing funds into market, market further pushing cryptocurrency prices.

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