Last week (May 12 - May 19), BTC was driven by multiple factors to break through $107,000 in the short term, creating a new high since May. After surging and breaking through $100,000 in the previous week, BTC prices remained stable at high levels from the 12th to the 17th, until rapidly rising after 20:00 on the 18th, breaking through the strong resistance level of $104,000 ~ $105,000 from the previous consolidation phase. It briefly reached a high of $107,108.62 in the early morning of the 19th, creating the highest weekly closing price in history. Subsequently, BTC prices pulled back to around $105,000 and found support, with the current price at $105,460 and a maximum weekly volatility of 6.34%.
ETH prices moved opposite to BTC, oscillating and pulling back after reaching a high. Influenced by the warming of US April CPI data, ETH quickly rose after 20:00 on the 13th, briefly touching a high of $2,738.5, then entered a technical correction in the following days, oscillating widely in the $2,400 ~ $2,600 range. On the 19th, ETH explored below $2,400 twice but quickly rebounded, currently stabilizing around $2,550, with a maximum weekly volatility of 15.16% (data source: Binance spot, May 20, 14:50).
As of the close on May 19th, the three major stock indices opened lower but turned higher during the day. US Treasury yields rose and then fell back, with prices making a V-shaped reversal. The US dollar weakened, falling over 0.7% and approaching the psychological threshold of 100 points.
Market Interpretation
ETF Capital Inflows and Institutional Trading Activities Propel BTC to Break $107,000
Recently, US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have continued to receive capital inflows, with net inflows exceeding $5.6 billion since April and cumulative net inflows of over $41 billion in 2024. These capital inflows directly pushed BTC prices higher, breaking through $107,000 with increased volume from the evening of May 18th to the early morning of the 19th, creating a new high for May.
Data shows multiple large BTC transfers on the chain recently, while leveraged fund short positions have decreased, indicating that capital inflows are more from bullish institutional allocations rather than arbitrage trading. Increased net BTC outflows from exchanges have reduced selling pressure. The sentiment index has risen from neutral to greedy, suggesting the short-term market may remain volatile but with a strong bias.
Gold Price Pullback Diverts Safe-Haven Funds to BTC
Since April 2025, gold and BTC trends have diverged. Gold rose nearly 30% from the beginning of the year to early May, but has fallen from its mid-May high of $3,394/ounce to $3,127/ounce since late April, due to a strong US dollar, tight Federal Reserve policies, and US-China trade developments, with a cumulative decline of about 8%.
In terms of capital, gold ETF inflows have slowed, with outflows even occurring in mid-May. In contrast, BTC spot ETFs have shown significant daily inflows, indicating that institutional safe-haven allocations are shifting towards crypto assets. The US dollar index remains high, with rates staying tight, pressuring gold, while BTC's "digital safe-haven" attribute gains more recognition due to policy support and capital inflows.
US April Inflation Data Shows Mixed Performance, Fed June Rate Cut Probability Rises to 91.4%
US April CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, with core CPI also rising 0.3%, basically in line with expectations, and the market reacted moderately to the short-term data.
Meanwhile, PPI unexpectedly decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest drop in five years, reflecting compressed corporate profits and some tariff costs absorbed by companies. Overall, inflation transmission is not yet fully realized, pushing market expectations for the Fed to maintain rates in June to 91.4%.
Market Highlights
US Senate Advances Stablecoin Regulation Bill, Entering New Regulatory Phase
On May 20, 2025, the US Senate passed the procedural motion for the 'GENIUS Act' with 66 votes in favor and 32 against, marking a key step in stablecoin regulation. The bill aims to establish a federal regulatory framework, clarifying issuers, reserve requirements, and compliance standards, filling regulatory gaps.
RWA Total Value Breaks $22.6 Billion, US Leads Global Tokenization Innovation
As of May 20th, RWA total value reached $22.6 billion, growing 5.85% in 30 days, with over 101,854 holders. Wall Street institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are actively promoting on-chain assets, with US policies also strengthening support, driving continuous expansion of the tokenization ecosystem.
Hong Kong SFC Releases Pledge Service Regulatory Framework, Strengthening Compliance Signals
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issued a notice clarifying regulatory requirements for virtual asset trading platforms providing pledge services. This measure provides a clear compliance path for the market, expected to enhance trust and promote healthy development of Hong Kong's virtual asset ecosystem.
Labubu Trend Drives MEME Coin LABUBU Market Cap Surge
The Labubu trend has spread to the crypto market, with the MEME coin LABUBU's market cap soaring from hundreds of thousands to $18 million in a week, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $9.5 million. Previously popular in Thailand, this round of enthusiasm combined with trendy physical items and market sentiment has significantly increased fund attention.
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