Global tariff conflicts eased - US CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, increasing market uncertainty

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ChainCatcher
3 days ago
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Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, of which BTC accounts for 61.55%, or $2.06 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $242.5 billion , up 0.12% in the last seven days, of which USDT accounts for 62.4%.
This week, the price of BTC fluctuated within a range and is currently at $103,628; the price of ETH fluctuated upward and is currently at $2,599.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap , a small number rose while most fell, including: WIF rose 44.8% in 7 days, RAY rose 19.4% in 7 days, ETHFI rose 114.52% in 7 days, and NXPC rose 75.9% in 7 days.
This week, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$607.8 million; the net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETF was US$41.8 million.
The Fear & Greed Index for May 16 was 69 (lower than last week), and this week's sentiment: 7 days was Greedy.
Market Forecast:
This week, stablecoins continued to be issued in small amounts, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a large inflow, and the Ethereum ETF had a small inflow. Due to the easing of global tariff conflicts, the US CPI and PPI data in April were lower than expected, BTC hovered around $103,000, and some copycat projects had a slight increase. It is worth noting that the new project Launchcoin has increased by 2650% in 7 days. The market still has periodic opportunities to make money, and you can focus on the Hotcoin new coin list . Greedy sentiment has eased compared with last week. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June is only 6.7%, which is lower than last week. There is no hope for a rate cut in June, and it depends on whether there will be a rate cut in July. Although the economic fundamentals are good, the market still has great uncertainty before new liquidity comes in, and the market outlook in 2025 is still optimistic. However, liquidity is prone to be insufficient in the summer, so it is recommended to stop profit in some stages.

Understand now

Review of the week's major events

  1. On May 11, Deflama founder 0xngmi posted on the X platform that hackers managed to hack into an address in the Lido oracle multi-signature and exposed their whereabouts after stealing 1.4 ETH. 0xngmi added that it might be worth putting some simple coins in a multi-signature wallet to act as a canary and sound an alarm when the wallet is compromised;
  2. On May 12, the White House issued a statement announcing that the United States had reached a trade agreement with China in Geneva;
  3. On May 13, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase (COIN.O) will be included in the S&P 500 index, replacing Discover Financial. Coinbase will become the first pure crypto company to join the S&P 500 index, and COIN's stock price rose 9.5% in after-hours trading;
  4. On May 13, according to market news, Trump's company Truth Social denied rumors that it would issue Meme coins;
  5. On May 13, Paul Atkins, chairman of the U.S. SEC, announced his vision for crypto regulation, and the agency will take a friendlier approach to digital assets;
  6. On May 13, blockchain cloud service company Nirvana Labs completed a $6 million seed extension round of financing, led by Jump Crypto and Crucible Capital, with participation from RW3 Ventures, Castle Island, Hash3 VC, etc.
  7. On May 14, AI proxy platform Virtuals Protocol announced on social media that the VIRTUAL staking feature is now live. By locking VIRTUAL, users will receive veVIRTUAL, the voting custody version of the token, which represents long-term synergy, deeper utility of the protocol, and future governance power;
  8. On May 14, TheBlock reported that the US SEC postponed its decision on the physical redemption mechanism of BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust and asked the public to submit comments on the proposal. The current cash redemption model requires the custodian to sell Bitcoin before returning cash to investors. Analysts pointed out that if physical redemption is approved, it will improve the efficiency of ETF transactions. In addition, the Grayscale Litecoin Trust and Grayscale Solana Trust proposals have been postponed, and the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF has entered the public comment stage;
  9. On May 14, eToro, a cryptocurrency and stock trading online brokerage and competitor of Robinhood, raised approximately $310 million in its U.S. initial public offering (IPO);
  10. On May 14, the Ethereum Foundation announced the launch of the "Trillion Dollar" Security Plan, a plan covering the entire ecosystem to upgrade the security of Ethereum and help the world move to the chain. The plan includes three parts: "Drawing a full-stack security map", "Tackling key areas" and "Upgrading security awareness";
  11. On May 15, CoinMarketCap officially launched the launch platform CMC Launch, with the first project being the decentralized perpetual trading platform Aster ($AST);
  12. On May 15, a U.S. congressman said that Trump’s involvement in encryption makes legislation more complicated, but the stablecoin and market structure bill is still expected to be passed before August;
  13. On May 16, Coinbase faced the double blow of "SEC investigation" and "hackers stealing user data" during the trading day.

Macroeconomics

  1. On May 13, the U.S. April unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.3%, expected to be 2.40%, and the previous value was 2.40%;
  2. On May 15, the US PPI for April was 2.4% on an annual basis, in line with expectations of 2.5%. The previous value was revised from 2.70% to 3.4%. The PPI annual rate fell for the third consecutive month, the lowest since September last year;
  3. On May 15, according to market news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission decided to postpone the resolution on the 21SHARES spot Polkadot (DOT) ETF application;
  4. On May 16, according to CoinPost, Japanese listed company Remixpoint announced the purchase of an additional 32.83 BTC. After this purchase, the company's Bitcoin holdings increased to 648.82 BTC, with a current market value of approximately 9.91 billion yen;
  5. On May 16, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%.

ETF

According to statistics, from May 12 to May 16, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$607.8 million; as of May 16, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of US$22.944 billion, currently holding US$19.635 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds US$65.435 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETF is US$125.131 billion.

Predicting the future

Upcoming Events

  1. Bitcoin 2025 will be held in Las Vegas, USA from May 27 to 29;
  2. NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025.

Project Progress

  1. DeFi Development approved a 7-for-1 stock split, shareholders will receive six additional shares on May 19, and if Nasdaq approves, trading will resume on May 20, adjusted for the stock split.

Important Events

  1. On May 20, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision.

Token Unlock

  1. Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock 2.13 billion tokens on May 19, worth approximately $399 million, accounting for 58.62% of the circulation;
  2. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock 89.37 million tokens on May 19, worth approximately $4.94 million, accounting for 1.79% of the circulation;
  3. Polyhedra (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on May 19, worth approximately $31.9 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulation;
  4. Pyth network (PYTH) will unlock 2.83 billion tokens on May 20, worth approximately $472 million, accounting for 28.33% of the circulation;
  5. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on May 21, worth approximately $95.47 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulation.

about Us

As the core investment and research center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend analysis + value mining + real-time tracking". Through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24-hour market volatility monitoring, combined with the weekly "Hotcoin Selection" strategy live broadcast and "Blockchain Today's Headlines" daily news delivery, we provide investors at different levels with accurate market interpretation and practical strategies. Relying on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continue to empower novice investors to establish a cognitive framework, help professional institutions capture alpha returns, and jointly seize value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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