1. Market Observation
Key Words: BTC, ETH, AAVE
HashKey Group's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding predicts that Bitcoin is expected to break through its previous high in the near term, aiming at $108,000! From a data perspective, the new billion-dollar funding channel and gradually solidifying market chips all indicate that this day will come soon.
First, the 'GENIUS Stablecoin Bill' passed the Senate procedural motion and will now enter the Senate full vote stage, with passage being inevitable. This will bring a new funding channel to the digital currency market, with billions of new funds to be injected into the digital currency market through stablecoins. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has instructed policy staff to begin drafting cryptocurrency-related rule proposals, showing they are preparing for the bill's passage. If ultimately passed, this important bill will become the first federal-level stablecoin legislation in the US, having a significant and far-reaching impact on stablecoin regulation. Stablecoin track-related concepts like Frax and AAVE have seen significant recent gains.
Secondly, Glassnode data shows non-liquid supply has reached a historical peak. This indicates that the current Bitcoin rally is not driven by retail frenzy, but by multiple structural forces, including institutional capital inflow, historic supply contraction, and improved macroeconomic environment. These factors suggest Bitcoin will challenge new historical highs along a more sustainable and mature path, potentially rising to $150,000-$180,000 this year.
Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to attract capital inflow, showing strong fundamental support. Even under Moody's downgrade of US credit rating and risk-averse stock market sentiment, BTC still managed to rise over the weekend, further reinforcing its positioning as a value storage tool. This narrative is gaining more consensus and is expected to become a long-term positive catalyst.
Meanwhile, the narrative of the entire crypto market is heating up. The volatility market also reflects market optimism. Despite spot price consolidation and macro uncertainties, crypto asset implied volatility remains relatively high. Bitcoin call option skew structure remains stable across most terms, suggesting the market still maintains a structurally bullish expectation.
2. Key Data (as of May 19, 12:00 HKT)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
- Bitcoin: $106,826 (YTD +13.9%), Daily spot trading volume $32.92 billion
- Ethereum: $2,546 (YTD -23.7%), Daily spot trading volume $20.48 billion
- Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)
- Average GAS: BTC: 4 sat/vB ETH: 0.51 Gwei
- Market Dominance: BTC 63%, ETH 9.1%
- Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: BTC, XRP, WCT, ETH, NXPC
- 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.01
- Sector Performance: AI (+2.15%), PayFi (-4.2%)
- 24-hour Liquidation Data: 82,209 people globally liquidated, Total liquidation amount $214 million, BTC liquidation $56 million, ETH liquidation $59 million, SOL liquidation $7.52 million
- BTC Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($103,016.97), Lower line ($100,977.03)
- ETH Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper line ($2,389.95), Lower line ($2,342.62)
*Note: When price is above upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium-long term bullish trend; conversely, a bearish trend. When price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of May 20)
- Bitcoin ETF: +$329 million
- Ethereum ETF: +$64.89 million
4. Today's Outlook
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5. Hot News
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This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and Asia's most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway, committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund safety, and platform protection.
