This week's review
This week, from May 12 to May 19, the highest price of BTC was around $107,108 and the lowest price was close to $100,718, with a fluctuation range of about 6.34%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 93,000, which will have a certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 60000-68000, about 1.15 million pieces;
2. 76000-89000, about 1.08 million pieces;
3. 90000-100000: about 1.52 million pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 95,000~100,000 in the short term is 80%;
Important news
Economic News
1. Downgrade of US sovereign credit rating:
◦ Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, and adjusted the outlook to "stable". (This is the first downgrade in this round)
◦ Review: S&P downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA+ in 2011. Fitch downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA+ in August 2023, with a "stable" outlook (Fitch placed the US AAA rating on "negative watch" on May 24, 2023).
◦ Current: The United States has lost all of its AAA top ratings from the three major credit rating agencies. ◦ Reason for downgrade (Moody’s): The U.S. government debt and interest payment ratio continue to rise, and the fiscal deficit is expected to approach 9% of GDP by 2035.
◦ Reactions from Federal Reserve officials:
▪ Federal Reserve Deputy Director: Moody's downgrade will be treated as ordinary data when making policies.
▪ Fed’s Bostic: Moody’s downgrade of the US rating will affect the entire economy and financial markets, will have an impact on the cost of funds, and will wait and see the impact of the rating downgrade on the demand for US Treasuries.
▪ Fed’s Williams: Inflation has been declining slowly and gradually. Tariffs may push up inflation and US unemployment. The outlook will become clearer after June and July.
2. US inflation and monetary policy expectations:
◦ Federal Reserve officials (Williams/Waller): Inflation is slowly declining, the economy is likely to slow this year, and the Federal Reserve can remain calm in its monetary policy decisions.
◦ Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX, also comments on macro): The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has soared, and the Federal Reserve has been "reminded". If it spreads to the MOVE volatility index, it is expected that the printing press will start.
◦ Trump’s comment: The general market consensus is that the Fed should cut interest rates, but Powell, who is a step late, is likely to mess it up again.
◦ Comprehensive analysis: Moody's downgrade, US debt depreciation, tariff pressure, economic slowdown and other factors are combined. If US inflation continues to maintain the current trend in May, June and July (US CPI 2.3% in April), the pressure on US monetary policy/Federal Reserve may be interpreted as a driving force for the market. (That is, the market expects the Fed to turn to easing as a result)
3. American Politics and Finance:
◦ A U.S. House of Representatives panel approved Trump’s tax cut bill, setting the stage for a possible vote this week. Trump’s sweeping tax bill hit a roadblock in Congress last Thursday.
◦The Washington Post reported: No media or photographic equipment was allowed to enter the Trump dinner held on May 22.
4. Performance of the U.S. bond market:
◦ U.S. Treasury bonds: Depreciated, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.5% and the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5%.
5. International financial cooperation and innovation:
◦ The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) jointly released a research report Project Pine to test the feasibility of using smart contracts to implement monetary policy in tokenized financial markets.
◦ The report points out that smart contracts have the ability to quickly deploy and adjust monetary policy tools, providing flexibility and efficiency for central banks to implement policies in tokenized financial systems in the future, but also emphasizes the need to pay attention to interoperability, data standards and potential operational risks.
Encrypted Eco-Messages
1. US cryptocurrency legislation and regulatory developments:
◦ Stablecoin legislation "GENIUS Act":
▪ U.S. Senators Bill Hagerty and Kirsten Gillibrand said that the GENIUS Act, U.S. legislation to regulate stablecoin issuers, may enter the debate and passage stage this week.
▪ Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Digital Asset Advisory Committee, said that the purpose of the GENIUS Act is to safeguard the future of U.S. finance and promote the modernization of the outdated U.S. payment system. Digital asset technology represents the next generation of the financial system, and the United States is ready for this change.
◦ SEC News:
▪ The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released frequently asked questions (FAQs) related to crypto asset activities and distributed ledger technology, covering broker custody rules, physical subscriptions for crypto spot ETFs, net capital treatment of BTC and ETH, and transitory agent rules for securities.
◦ Texas BTC Reserve Act:
▪ The Texas Strategic BTC Reserve Act (SB 21) will undergo a second reading in the House of Representatives on May 20, which is a necessary step before the final vote. If the bill passes a full vote in the House of Representatives before the Texas Legislative Session on June 2, it will be submitted to the governor for signature.
2. Cryptocurrency market performance and analyst views:
◦ Analyst Daan Crypto Trades: CB (Coinbase) has been showing a spot premium recently, which is a good sign and shows solid demand.
◦ Arthur Hayes’ opinion: The arrival of the Shanzhai season requires BTC to break through $110,000 and continue to rise in volume to the $150,000-200,000 range. This is expected to happen this summer or early in the third quarter, after which various Shanzhais will begin to rotate.
◦ CryptoQuant report: ETH/BTC fell to a historically rare range. Historically, whenever the indicator reached similar low levels, ETH achieved significant gains. Currently, ETH/BTC has rebounded sharply, indicating that investors are betting that the market has bottomed out and the village season may soon arrive.
◦ Analyst Apsk32’s opinion: BTC usually follows gold’s rise a few months later. As gold rises to a new high of $3,500 per ounce, if BTC continues to evolve along the momentum curve and gold maintains its current price, while BTC price returns to the track of leading support for five years, BTC’s target price in 2025 may be around $220,000.
◦ Matrixport report: With the easing of the periodic downside risks, the upward path of BTC has become clearer. Risk assets, especially BTC, are expected to usher in a favorable window period before July, which coincides with the end of the 90-day tariff suspension agreement and the start of the second quarter earnings season. Another important catalyst is that FTX will start the debt repayment process around May 30. For accounts with debts exceeding US$50,000, it is expected to issue about US$5 billion in stablecoins. Liquidity may drive market momentum in June, and the market is expected to continue until the summer.
◦ Overall market sentiment: "Bitcoin is stubbornly holding near its historical high, waiting for a catalyst, and Ethereum is not weak either."
3. Cryptocurrency ETFs and fund flows:
◦ Last week: The US BTC spot ETF received a cumulative inflow of US$608 million, and the US ETH spot ETF received a cumulative inflow of US$41.8 million.
◦ DeFiLlama data: The total market value of stablecoins reached US$243.838 billion, an increase of 0.45% in the past 7 days.
4. Institutional and public holdings dynamics:
◦ MicroStrategy (Strategy): Increased holdings of 7,390 BTC between May 12 and May 18 at a price of $103,498, for a total of $764.9 million.
◦ Metaplanet: Increased holdings by 1,004 BTC, with a total holding of 7,800 BTC.
◦ Salvato: Increased holdings by 31 BTC in the past 30 days, with a total holding of 6180.18 BTC.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
• Illiquidity and long-term whale
• BTC spot seller total risk ratio
• BTC US spot ETF fund flows
• Net position of large inflows and outflows on trading platforms
It has remained at a relatively high level recently, and the latest data shows a further upward trend. This shows that the long-term and illiquid BTC (long-term whale) in the market are still increasing steadily, the confidence of HODLers is still strong, and the potential selling pressure is relatively small. The illiquid long-term whale are synchronized with the moderate rise in prices, showing healthy support and upward momentum.
The ratio is currently at a relatively mild level. Although it has risen as prices rise, it is far from the high risk area at the top of the historical bull market. This shows that the current market rise is not dominated by excessive leverage or short-term crazy speculation, and the pressure of profit-taking is relatively controllable.
After a period of fluctuations in capital inflows and even a brief outflow, the rightmost side shows that the net inflow of ETF funds has recovered and maintained a positive trend. Although the daily inflow may not be as high as the initial peak, the continued net inflow shows that funds in the traditional financial market are still actively and steadily allocating BTC. The price and ETF capital flows maintain a strong positive correlation, and the recent steady recovery of prices is synchronized with the continued net inflow of ETF funds.
• Red bars (>10 million USD): After the price rose to a high level, although there were occasional intermittent net inflows (which may represent risk management or small cashing out by some people), there was no trend of sustained large-scale BTC transfers to trading platforms. In recent days, there has even been a weak net outflow or balance.
• Orange bars ($1-10 million): The performance is more mixed, but overall there is no sign of panic selling or large-scale concentrated shipments. Overall, the selling pressure from large addresses is relatively controllable, and no sustained selling pressure has formed. On the contrary, the recent balance or weak net outflows suggest reluctance to sell and potential accumulation behavior. During the price increase, the pressure of large net inflows on trading platforms is not obvious, providing a good environment for further price support.
The short-term speculator cost line (about $94,345, estimated according to the chart) continues to rise slowly, indicating that the average holding cost of long-term holders is constantly increasing, which usually happens in a bull market, when new long-term holders enter the market at a higher price. The current BTC price is much higher than the STH cost line. • BTC price > STH cost > LTH cost: This is a very typical bull market structure.
• The price is much higher than the STH cost: This indicates that short-term holders are currently making significant profits, which is one of the sources of their confidence to continue holding.
Combining the analysis of news and on-chain data
1. Starting point: Expectations of loosening under macro uncertainty + gradual clarification of supervision (News & Figure 3)
◦ News: The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has raised concerns about the long-term credit of the US dollar. The market expects that this may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more relaxed monetary policy in the future (Arthur Hayes' "printing press" argument). At the same time, regulatory progress such as the stablecoin bill has brought positive expectations to the market.
◦ Figure 3 (ETF): The continued net inflow of ETF funds is a direct response to macro expectations and positive regulatory signals, indicating that traditional funds are still entering the market.
◦ Analysis: The "bad news" (credit risk) at the macro level is interpreted by the market as "good news" for crypto assets (risk aversion demand + easing expectations). The gradual clarification of supervision reduces uncertainty and enhances confidence in capital inflows.
2. Follow-up: HODLer confidence is overflowing and supply continues to shrink (Figure 1 & Figure 5)
◦ Figure 1 (Illiquid long-term whale): The illiquid supply continues to increase, indicating that HODLers not only did not sell on a large scale at the current price level, but were reluctant to sell and even increased their holdings, resulting in a further reduction in the actual tradable BTC supply in the market.
◦ Figure 5 (Short-term speculators’ cost): BTC price is much higher than the average cost of long-term and short-term holders, which means that most market participants are in a profitable state. In particular, the large profits of long-term holders are an important basis for their firm holding. The STH cost line, as a key bull market support, is currently far behind.
◦ News: Institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings of BTC, confirming the optimism of long-term holders and smart money.
◦ Analysis: Strong HODLing behavior + general profitability + supply shock effect. The market has very little selling pressure, which provides extremely strong support for prices.
3. Verification: The public’s behavior is sound and market risks are controllable (Figure 2 & Figure 4)
◦ Figure 4 (Net flow of large trading platforms): There is no sign of sustained net inflow (selling) from large addresses on trading platforms. Instead, there is occasional net outflow (accumulation or transfer to cold wallets), indicating that the public is still optimistic about the market outlook and is not in a hurry to cash out.
◦ Figure 2 (Spot Sell Risk Ratio): The spot sell risk ratio is at a moderate level, showing that although market sentiment is positive, it is far from being crazy or overheated, and there is not much short-term profit-taking pressure.
◦ Figure 1 (Illiquid long-term whale: It also confirms that the market has not yet entered the frenzy stage at the top of the bull market (at least they have not sold).
◦ Analysis: The robustness of the majority behavior and the controllability of overall market risks provide a healthy internal environment for further price increases.
4. Progressive: Breakthrough expectations and rotation potential (news side)
◦ News: Analysts are generally optimistic that BTC will break through its historical highs (Arthur Hayes's $110,000, $150,000-$200,000 target), and expect funds to rotate to altcoins (ETH/BTC exchange rate rebound is a signal). Short-term liquidity injection events such as FTX compensation are seen as potential catalysts.
◦ On-chain correlation: All current on-chain indicators point to a healthy bull market structure that is poised to take off. Once BTC breaks upward, it may quickly attract more attention and funds given its scarcity of supply and strong buying support.
◦ Analysis: On-chain data provides a solid foundation for optimistic expectations on the news. BTC is "waiting for a catalyst" to complete the final step, after which the rotation logic of the Shanzhai season is expected to be activated.
Future Outlook:
• Short- to medium-term outlook:
◦ BTC has a high probability of continuing to rise and challenge/break through historical highs: All on-chain indicators (non-liquidity supply, LTH/STH costs are much lower than current prices, selling risk is moderate, ETFs continue to flow in, and the public has no obvious selling pressure) support this judgment. The expected loose policies and regulatory benefits on the news side will be the key catalyst.
◦ The STH cost line (about $94,369) is an important short-term support: Even if a pullback occurs, the short-term upward trend is not expected to change as long as it does not effectively fall below this line.
◦ The conditions for launching Shanzhai Season are becoming more mature: Once BTC effectively breaks through and stabilizes, the spillover effect of funds will be significantly enhanced. The performance of the ETH/BTC exchange rate will be an important indicator. FTX compensation (if it happens as expected) may become the spark that ignites the enthusiasm for Shanzhai.
◦ Variables to watch: Whether macro data (such as inflation and employment) support expectations of easing; the actual implementation of regulatory bills; whether ETF capital inflows can continue.
• Medium to long term outlook:
◦ The certainty of the in-depth development of the bull market is enhanced: The current on-chain structure (especially the STH cost shown in Figure 5 is much lower than the current price) is a typical healthy feature of the mid-term bull market, indicating greater room for growth. Long-term illiquid whale also support this judgment.
◦ The STH cost line (about US$94,345) is the "lifeline" of this round of bull market: as long as the price can continue to stay above it and drive it to rise steadily, the bull market structure will remain solid.
◦ Target price and risk: Analysts predict that BTC will reach a price of more than $200,000 by the end of the year or in 2025. This is not a fantasy, supported by current on-chain data and macro expectations (but the probability is still relatively small at present). However, as prices continue to rise, it is necessary to pay close attention to the long-term whale in Figure 1 and the spot seller risk ratio in Figure 2. If they quickly approach or enter the historical high-risk area, it means that market risks are accumulating sharply and the pressure of callback will increase significantly.
◦ Long-term drivers: The actual degree of easing of US monetary policy, the global demand for hedging inflation and sovereign credit risk, and the improvement of the crypto regulatory framework will be the core factors determining the height and length of this bull market.
Mid-term exploration
• Long-term participant supply share
• Liquidity Supply
• Net position of whale trading platform
• ETH trading platform circulation ratio
• Short-term profit structure composite model
The long-term supply of chips in the market is gradually compressing the selling space of short-term chips in the market, and currently there is a large amount of acceptance. From the current basic situation, the increase in long-term chips will make the market pricing more stable. Of course, the premise is that the short-term supply can be well supplemented. It is possible that overall, after the long-term supply compresses the short-term supply available for sale, the number of short-term chips in the market has been reduced in disguise. The factors that drive pricing may require some updated supply.
The current liquidity supply is still in a healthy state, and the market may also have a certain amount of new supply support. The current market pricing may still hover in a stable area.
The whale are constantly accumulating chips in their hands. This group has not shown any signs of turning to "selling on trading platforms". At present, it is still a weak accumulation structure.
The circulation ratio of ETH on centralized trading platforms has declined. Even when BTC is at a relatively high price, the market still tends to seek stability rather than aggressively participate in high-risk projects. Currently, the market is mainly hoarding BTC. Under this structure, BTC pricing may remain stable, and small currency projects will face the BTC siphon effect, and will show a phased decline due to the inability to obtain BTC overflow liquidity.
BTC is currently in a stage of short-term supply profit overflow, and there may be profit-taking pressure, causing the market to encounter upward resistance.
Short-term observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option Implied Volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Net position of BTC Trading Platform
• Net position of ETH trading platform
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin trading platform net position
• Off-chain trading platform data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red area, and the derivatives risk is relatively high.
The risk factor has been fluctuating in the red area for a week, and no short or long positions have been liquidated. It is still in the red area. It is expected that the derivatives market will experience large fluctuations this week and liquidate derivatives participants.
The proportion of put options increased slightly and the trading volume increased moderately.
Derivatives trading volume was moderate.
Option implied volatility fluctuates only slightly in the short term.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
Although the price is gradually rising, the positive sentiment of the market (blue line) has been in a "divergence" with the BTC price. It may have no impact on the price in the short term, but it is not a good phenomenon in the medium term.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflow.
Currently, BTC continues to flow out in large quantities.
Currently, ETH continues to flow out in large quantities.
ETH has a lot of high-weight selling pressure, but it has eased.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has lost a small amount.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly compared to last week.
The purchasing power of stablecoins has been lost slightly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: The data website failed this week and there is no off-chain transaction data.
This week’s summary:
News analysis and summary:
1. Starting point: Macroeconomic pressure forces policy to shift towards expectations
◦ US sovereign credit ratings fell below AAA across the board + continued debt and deficit pressure + potential economic slowdown signals The market expects the Fed to be forced to adopt a looser monetary policy in the future (which may be evident in the summer or later), despite the official cautious stance in the short term.
2. Transmission to the crypto market: Double benefits of risk aversion and liquidity expectations
◦ The long-term credit of the U.S. dollar is expected to be damaged. Some funds may seek alternative value storage, and BTC’s “digital gold” narrative has once again attracted attention.
◦ Expectations of future easing by the Federal Reserve and improved market liquidity are good for risky assets, and the crypto market as a high-beta asset will benefit.
3. Positive factors in crypto: clearer regulation and continued inflow of funds
◦ Legislative progress such as the Stablecoin Act + clarification of SEC operational guidelines reduce regulatory uncertainty and pave the way for institutional entry.
◦ BTC/ETH ETF continues to attract funds + institutions/countries increase their holdings. Real buying supports the market.
◦ Expectations of short-term liquidity injections such as FTX compensation will further enhance market confidence.
4. Market sentiment and capital signals resonate: expectations of breakthroughs and rotations rise
◦ Analysts are generally bullish + ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounds + ZhaiQi season is highly anticipated. Market sentiment is positive.
◦ BTC is consolidating near its historical high, waiting for a catalyst to complete the breakthrough. Once it breaks through, it may trigger a rotation of funds to ETH and other altcoins.
• Short- to medium-term outlook:
◦ The core driving force of the "Summer Offensive" is the resonance of "expectations of easing" and "clarification of regulation".
◦ BTC may try to break through its all-time high: Any dovish remarks or data from the Fed under macro pressure (such as inflation continuing to be lower than expected), as well as positive regulatory progress (such as the passage of the Stablecoin Act), may become a catalyst for BTC to break through. Arthur Hayes's path for BTC to break through $110,000 and then rise to $150,000-200,000 is worth paying attention to.
◦ The launch window of the altcoin season: If BTC successfully breaks through and stabilizes, the capital rotation effect is expected to emerge. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is a key indicator for observation. FTX's stablecoin compensation (if it occurs in June) may become one of the direct triggers for the launch of the altcoin market. The favorable window period before July pointed out by Matrixport is also worth looking forward to.
◦ Risks: A more hawkish Fed in the short term (although the possibility is reduced, it cannot be completely ruled out), unexpected negative news from regulators, or a failed BTC breakout could all lead to a market pullback.
• Medium to long term outlook:
◦ The actual direction of U.S. monetary policy is key: If the Fed does start a rate cut cycle and re-expands its balance sheet ("starts printing money"), it will provide continued macro liquidity support for the crypto market.
◦ The gradual maturity of the regulatory framework: With the implementation of legislation such as the Stablecoin Act, the US crypto regulatory framework will become clearer, which will help attract a larger scale of traditional funds. The exploration of tokenized finance by central banks such as Project Pine also foreshadows the direction of change in the future financial system.
◦ Long-term value narrative of BTC and ETH: BTC, as a value storage property of "digital gold", may be more favored in the context of sovereign credit risk exposure. With its strong ecosystem and deflation mechanism (if EIP-1559 continues to be effective), as well as the possible ETF narrative (although the ETH ETF approval was not directly mentioned this time, there was information in the last round), there is a possibility that its growth rate will surpass other assets in the late bull market (such as Arthur Hayes predicting that ETH will surpass SOL).
◦ Targets given by market sentiment: The target price of BTC by the end of the year or in 2025 ($220,000-250,000) given by analysts indicates optimistic expectations for the height of this bull market, but this requires continued coordination of macro, regulatory and internal market factors.
Core logic:
Macro level (U.S. credit risk exposure → loose policy expectations) + crypto internal (regulatory clarity → continued capital inflow) Market confidence is enhanced, risk aversion and speculative demand resonate BTC is waiting for a catalyst to break through the historical high (if successful) Funds rotate, the Shanzhai season begins, and summer market conditions are expected The depth of the medium- and long-term bull market depends on the degree of macro liquidity release and the maturity of the regulatory framework. The current market is at a critical game point, and the macro "bad news" (U.S. credit problems) may be interpreted by the market as "good news" for the crypto market (forced easing). Internal positive factors provide the basis for this optimistic expectation. Summer will be an important window to verify these expectations.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. Macroeconomic pressure is expected to ease + supervision is gradually improving, and ETF funds continue to be injected;
2. Strengthen market confidence. On-chain supply continues to shrink (HODLers are reluctant to sell, and the number of long-term illiquid whale increases). Market participants generally make profits (prices are much higher than the costs of LTH and STH);
3. Selling pressure is minimal, the public is behaving prudently, market risks are controllable, and BTC has upward momentum;
4. Waiting for the catalyst to break through the new high (if successful) to trigger the Shanzhai seasonal rotation;
5. The summer market is worth looking forward to. The depth of the medium- and long-term bull market depends on macro liquidity and regulatory maturity. The STH cost line is a relatively short-term key reference.
• Market tone: This round of on-chain data further strengthens the market's bullish logic, especially the STH cost chart, which clearly shows the healthy structure and strong support of the current bull market. To some extent, the market is ready, just waiting for the "East Wind" (key catalyst).
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The increase in the proportion of long-term chips compresses the short-term selling space, the market's ability to bear is enhanced, and new supply is needed to promote price breakthroughs.
2. Liquidity can maintain a healthy level, new supply continues to support, and the current price may continue to fluctuate in the range.
3. Whale continue to accumulate funds at low levels but there is no concentrated selling pressure. The market is still in a mild accumulation stage and no trend reversal has formed.
4. The circulation of ETH on trading platforms is shrinking, and funds are concentrated in BTC for risk aversion. Small currencies may face downward pressure due to liquidity siphoning.
5. The accumulation of short-term profit-taking on BTC creates selling pressure, and the upward space of prices is constrained by the demand for profit-taking.
• Market setting tone:
Wandering, shaking
BTC maintains central oscillation, structural differentiation intensifies, and liquidity risks of small currencies need to be vigilant.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor is in the red area, and the risk of derivatives is relatively high.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
4. The net positions of BTC and ETH on the trading platform are in a state of continuous large outflow.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has lost a little.
6. The probability of not falling below 95,000-100,000 in the short term is 80%;
• Market tone: In the short term, there are fewer chips that choose to take profits at the current price, and the purchasing power is sufficient to support it. Although the market's positive sentiment and prices are in a "divergence" state, due to the accumulation of the derivatives market, the rapid fluctuations in the market are coming soon. The expectations this week are basically the same as last week. There is still the possibility of further short squeezes, and the probability of a direct large retracement is low.
Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
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