Odaily星球日报讯 SignatureFD 分析师 Tony Welch 表示，美联储会议后美债收益率下跌，可能表明投资者担心紧缩的货币政策将对经济产生影响。目前经济正在放缓，在更长时间内实施较紧的货币政策肯定会是一个不利因素。特朗普的关税正在影响美联储的想法，因为 FOMC 的声明“一开始”就提到了贸易。鲍威尔将在新闻发布会上多次使用“不确定性”这个词。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 SignatureFD 分析师 Tony Welch 表示，美联储会议后美债收益率下跌，可能表明投资者担心紧缩的货币政策将对经济产生影响。目前经济正在放缓，在更长时间内实施较紧的货币政策肯定会是一个不利因素。特朗普的关税正在影响美联储的想法，因为 FOMC 的声明“一开始”就提到了贸易。鲍威尔将在新闻发布会上多次使用“不确定性”这个词。（金十）

分析师：货币政策从紧将拖累美国经济前景

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: SignatureFD analyst Tony Welch stated that the U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped after the Federal Reserve meeting, which may indicate investors' concerns that tight monetary policy will impact the economy. Currently, the economy is slowing down, and implementing a tight monetary policy for a longer period will certainly be a negative factor. Trump's tariffs are influencing the Federal Reserve's thinking, as the FOMC statement "initially" mentioned trade. Powell will use the word "uncertainty" multiple times during the press conference. (Jin Shi)

Analysts: Tight monetary policy will drag down US economic outlook

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Hal Panney, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said in a report that if the Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance on the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months at Wednesday's meeting, the US dollar may not necessarily appreciate. He said that since early April, the euro has strengthened, despite the yield spread between two-year EU and US Treasury bonds moving in a direction favorable to the US. This means that cautious signals about rate cuts may not necessarily boost the US dollar. Hal Panney said that policy uncertainty and strong expectations of a weakening US economy suggest that the US dollar may remain weak or further depreciate. (Jintian)

Opinion: The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts may not necessarily strengthen the dollar

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."

JPMorgan Chase: Two major factors hinder the Fed from starting to cut interest rates, and the final decision often lags behind the economic situation

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting and emphasized that they believe the risks of rising inflation and unemployment are increasing. The FOMC committee stated, "The uncertainty of economic prospects has further increased. The committee is monitoring risks facing its dual mission and judges that the risks of high unemployment and high inflation have risen." Officials unanimously voted to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Federal Reserve said it will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting. Trump's trade policies have triggered a wave of uncertainty throughout the economy. Although tariffs are still under negotiation, economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will drive up inflation and drag down economic growth. This will make the two objectives of policymakers (price stability and maximum employment) contradict each other. (Jin Shi)