Odaily星球日报讯 美联储连续第三次会议维持利率不变，并强调他们认为通胀上升和失业率上升的风险都在加大。FOMC 委员会表示，“经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。委员会正在关注其双重使命双向面临的风险，并判断高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。”官员们一致投票决定将利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间。美联储表示，将继续按照 3 月份会议上宣布的速度缩减资产负债表。特朗普的贸易政策在整个经济中引发了一波不确定性。虽然关税仍在谈判中，但经济学家普遍预计，全面关税将推高通胀，拖累经济增长。这将使政策制定者的两个目标（价格稳定和就业最大化）相互矛盾。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 美联储连续第三次会议维持利率不变，并强调他们认为通胀上升和失业率上升的风险都在加大。FOMC 委员会表示，“经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。委员会正在关注其双重使命双向面临的风险，并判断高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。”官员们一致投票决定将利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间。美联储表示，将继续按照 3 月份会议上宣布的速度缩减资产负债表。特朗普的贸易政策在整个经济中引发了一波不确定性。虽然关税仍在谈判中，但经济学家普遍预计，全面关税将推高通胀，拖累经济增长。这将使政策制定者的两个目标（价格稳定和就业最大化）相互矛盾。（金十）

美联储继续按兵不动，强调失业率和通胀风险上升

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting and emphasized that they believe the risks of rising inflation and unemployment are increasing. The FOMC committee stated, "The uncertainty of economic prospects has further increased. The committee is monitoring risks facing its dual mission and judges that the risks of high unemployment and high inflation have risen." Officials unanimously voted to keep interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Federal Reserve said it will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting. Trump's trade policies have triggered a wave of uncertainty throughout the economy. Although tariffs are still under negotiation, economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will drive up inflation and drag down economic growth. This will make the two objectives of policymakers (price stability and maximum employment) contradict each other. (Jin Shi)

Fed remains on hold, stressing rising risks to unemployment and inflation

According to ChainCatcher, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote that Trump's tariff policy was chaotic, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: whether to address economic recession or stagflation. This week, the Fed officials' two-day policy meeting will focus on carefully communicating such difficult trade-offs.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach, refrain from cutting interest rates, and plan how to fine-tune this strategy. This "strategic patience" reflects the Fed officials' reluctance to prematurely abandon their commitment to fighting inflation.

The current challenge facing the Fed can be likened to a goalkeeper's dilemma: whether to "dive to the right" - maintaining interest rates to curb inflation, or "dive to the left" - lowering rates to address slowing economic growth. "We will make a judgment that is undoubtedly very difficult," Powell said last month.

If the Fed acts too early and tries to implement stimulus measures before an economic slowdown, it could exacerbate short-term inflationary pressures caused by tariffs or commodity shortages.

"This will not be a cycle where the Fed cuts rates early due to predicting an economic slowdown. They need to see actual signs of slowdown in the data, especially in the labor market," said Richard Clarida, who served as Powell's deputy for three years.

Fed spokesperson: Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach and decide not to cut interest rates for now

<Odaily>Odaily Planet Daily News</Odaily> - John Luke Tanner, an analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated that he expects Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to maintain his previous stance, likely emphasizing that policymakers need to see more data and are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Tanner said that given the still-high inflation and the seemingly good economic condition, Powell will not be "overly proactive in cutting rates in the future". Tanner is eager to hear comments about tariffs, especially their potential impact on prices. He added that after recent statements from the Trump administration, Powell might emphasize the Federal Reserve's independence. (Jintop)

Viewpoint: Powell will reiterate that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and emphasize the independence of the Federal Reserve

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."