5 月 7 日，摩根大通指出，当美联储因为相互矛盾的宏观经济数据而左右为难时，其最终决策往往会落后于形势。特朗普越来越急切地呼吁美联储降低利率，但美联储正处于艰难境地。摩根大通分析师表示，在美联储本周启动 5 月的政策会议之际几乎没有可能降息，而且在后续会议上降息的可能性也很低。摩根大通认为，美联储官员在货币政策方面受到束缚原因有二。
原因之一是通胀预期上升导致美联储难以开启降息。最新的消费者通胀报告显示，3 月份的通胀同比上升 2.4%，高于美联储 2% 的目标。与未来可能出现的情况相比，这一数字仍然相当低：密歇根大学编制的一年期通胀预期为 6.5%。特朗普的关税政策预计会增加消费者的成本，这是通胀预期大幅上升的主要驱动因素。贸易战引发的担忧加剧了滞胀风险，即美国经济陷入增长停滞而物价持续上涨局面的可能性。在这种情况下，美联储实际上陷入了两难境地，因为它无法同时应对这两个问题。
原因之二是宏观数据尚未显示降息的必要性。目前令人鼓舞的数据掩盖了通胀预期问题，宏观经济数据继续保持坚挺，在某些方面甚至表现相对强劲，上周五令人意外的积极的 4 月非农就业报告增强了投资者的信心，并推动股市上涨。换句话说，市场并未定价衰退即将来临。摩根大通的分析师写道：「标普 500 指数（SPX）目前的远期市盈率为 21 倍，预计每股收益（EPS）今年增长 10%，明年增长 14%。这远远没有反映出对衰退的明显担忧。」

<div><p>5 月 7 日，摩根大通指出，当美联储因为相互矛盾的宏观经济数据而左右为难时，其最终决策往往会落后于形势。特朗普越来越急切地呼吁美联储降低利率，但美联储正处于艰难境地。摩根大通分析师表示，在美联储本周启动 5 月的政策会议之际几乎没有可能降息，而且在后续会议上降息的可能性也很低。摩根大通认为，美联储官员在货币政策方面受到束缚原因有二。</p><p>原因之一是通胀预期上升导致美联储难以开启降息。最新的消费者通胀报告显示，3 月份的通胀同比上升 2.4%，高于美联储 2% 的目标。与未来可能出现的情况相比，这一数字仍然相当低：密歇根大学编制的一年期通胀预期为 6.5%。特朗普的关税政策预计会增加消费者的成本，这是通胀预期大幅上升的主要驱动因素。贸易战引发的担忧加剧了滞胀风险，即美国经济陷入增长停滞而物价持续上涨局面的可能性。在这种情况下，美联储实际上陷入了两难境地，因为它无法同时应对这两个问题。</p><p>原因之二是宏观数据尚未显示降息的必要性。目前令人鼓舞的数据掩盖了通胀预期问题，宏观经济数据继续保持坚挺，在某些方面甚至表现相对强劲，上周五令人意外的积极的 4 月非农就业报告增强了投资者的信心，并推动股市上涨。换句话说，市场并未定价衰退即将来临。摩根大通的分析师写道：「标普 500 指数（SPX）目前的远期市盈率为 21 倍，预计每股收益（EPS）今年增长 10%，明年增长 14%。这远远没有反映出对衰退的明显担忧。」</p></div>

摩根大通：两大因素掣肘美联储开启降息，最终决策常落后于经济形势

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."

<div><p>On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decision often lags behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of a rate cut in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.</p><p>The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the main driver of the significant rise in inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the US economy falling into a state of stagnant growth with persistent price increases. In this situation, thethe, Fed caught in a di, a dias cannot address both issues simultaneously.</p><p>The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, andeconomand macmacroeconomic data continues robust, and in some aspects some aspects even relatively strong. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report lastweekend boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase's analysts wrote wrote S& 500 index (has SP) has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected EPS)) to grow% and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."</p></div>

JPMorgan Chase: Two major factors hinder the Fed from starting to cut interest rates, and the final decision often lags behind the economic situation

<source>Jinshi Data</source>

As the saying goes, one's greatest enemy is oneself. When it comes to the Federal Reserve and interest rate issues, Trump has undoubtedly made his situation much more difficult.

Trump has repeatedly attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, including using childish-like mockery and insults, which makes it almost impossible for Powell and his colleagues to cut short-term interest rates at the meeting early the next morning Beijing time, even if they had such an idea.

Any interest rate cut would likely be seen as yielding to pressure from the White House. It is hard to imagine that such an action would do anything other than damage the Federal Reserve's reputation and people's confidence in the U.S. Treasury market...

The more Trump talks, the less likely Powell is to cut interest rates

On May 7, Trump launched his first attack on the Federal Reserve since taking office in January, demanding an "immediate rate cut" and hinting that "I understand rates better than Powell".

At the January Federal Reserve meeting, Powell emphasized that he was not in a hurry to cut rates. Trump immediately criticized on social media: Powell and the Federal Reserve failed to prevent the inflation problem they created.

In March, Trump again called out Powell on social media: As U.S. tariffs gradually begin to affect the economy, it would be better for the Federal Reserve to lower rates. Do the right thing!

In early April, Trump called out to Powell: Cut rates, stop playing politics! For Powell, now is the best time to cut rates. Powell is always acting too late.

On April 17, Trump criticized Powell on social media: Powell's "actions are too slow", he always acts too late and makes wrong decisions. Powell can't be fired fast enough!

On April 18, Trump again emphasized that he was not satisfied with Powell, believing Powell was "playing politics", saying he believed Powell would resign at his request, but also stated that he did not regret nominating Powell.

On April 21, Trump mocked Powell as "Mr. Too Late" and "a big loser", believing Powell always arrives late. Trump stated that inflation is almost non-existent and called on Powell to cut rates quickly.

On April 22, Trump's attitude made a 180-degree turn, saying he had no plans to fire Powell and that the media always makes things messy. He stated that now is the perfect time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, hoping Powell would cut rates early or on time, not too late.

On April 24, Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut rates, hoping for a rate cut, and again criticized the Federal Reserve's slow action.

On April 29, Trump boasted about his 100-day achievements, claiming to understand rates better than the Federal Reserve chairman and criticizing the poor performance of Federal Reserve officials.

On May 2, Trump again called for a rate cut after the non-farm payroll report, saying tariffs brought in billions of dollars and are currently in a transitional phase, and the Federal Reserve should lower rates.

On May 4, Trump gave a clear statement in an interview that he would not consider removing Powell before his term ends in 2026, while reiterating that the Federal Reserve should lower rates. Small U.S. businesses do not need any relief.

On May 7, as the Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate resolution, the market generally expects it to remain unchanged, and Trump may again launch a fierce attack on Powell. (<金十>)

Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve more than 12 times this year and demanded an immediate rate cut

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Swiss Bank Economist David Kohl stated that the U.S. economy shows almost no signs of weakness. After the April non-farm employment report, he said: "Unstable and restrictive economic policies in the United States, including the introduction of high tariffs, have not yet produced the expected negative impact on labor market data." The economist pointed out that better-than-expected job additions and low unemployment rates have driven continued strong growth in private consumption. Kohl added that the data is very solid, and he expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this week. Kohl said the Federal Reserve might ignore negative survey indicators and wait to take action until economic data shows weakness. (Jinshi)