Odaily星球日报讯 三菱日联银行分析师哈尔潘尼在一份报告中说，如果美联储在周三的会议上对未来几个月降息的可能性持谨慎态度，美元不一定会升值。他说，自 4 月初以来，欧元走强，尽管欧盟与美国两年期国债的收益率差已经向有利于美国的方向移动。这意味着有关降息的谨慎信号不一定会提振美元。哈尔潘尼说，政策的不确定性以及对美国经济将走弱的强烈预期意味着美元可能会保持疲软或进一步走弱。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 三菱日联银行分析师哈尔潘尼在一份报告中说，如果美联储在周三的会议上对未来几个月降息的可能性持谨慎态度，美元不一定会升值。他说，自 4 月初以来，欧元走强，尽管欧盟与美国两年期国债的收益率差已经向有利于美国的方向移动。这意味着有关降息的谨慎信号不一定会提振美元。哈尔潘尼说，政策的不确定性以及对美国经济将走弱的强烈预期意味着美元可能会保持疲软或进一步走弱。（金十）

观点：美联储对降息的谨慎态度不一定令美元走强

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Hal Panney, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said in a report that if the Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance on the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months at Wednesday's meeting, the US dollar may not necessarily appreciate. He said that since early April, the euro has strengthened, despite the yield spread between two-year EU and US Treasury bonds moving in a direction favorable to the US. This means that cautious signals about rate cuts may not necessarily boost the US dollar. Hal Panney said that policy uncertainty and strong expectations of a weakening US economy suggest that the US dollar may remain weak or further depreciate. (Jintian)

Opinion: The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts may not necessarily strengthen the dollar

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise during the European morning session, weighed down by long-term bonds ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement on Wednesday. Tiffany Wilding, an economist at Pimco, said in a report that the latest U.S. employment data is constraining the Federal Reserve, and she expects the Fed will not cut rates before late this year. Rate cuts would only occur if data shows a clear slowdown or contraction in the labor market. (Jinshi)

U.S. Treasury yields rise, curve steepens

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."

JPMorgan Chase: Two major factors hinder the Fed from starting to cut interest rates, and the final decision often lags behind the economic situation

<Odaily>Odaily Planet Daily News</Odaily> - John Luke Tanner, an analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated that he expects Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to maintain his previous stance, likely emphasizing that policymakers need to see more data and are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Tanner said that given the still-high inflation and the seemingly good economic condition, Powell will not be "overly proactive in cutting rates in the future". Tanner is eager to hear comments about tariffs, especially their potential impact on prices. He added that after recent statements from the Trump administration, Powell might emphasize the Federal Reserve's independence. (Jintop)