Odaily星球日报讯 Renaissance Macro 的 Neil Dutta 认为，就业市场最终将推动美联储的降息步伐。他表示：“劳动力市场状况已经降温。美联储凭什么认为这会自行稳定下来？它不能也不会，这意味着最终需要采取政策应对措施。"（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 Renaissance Macro 的 Neil Dutta 认为，就业市场最终将推动美联储的降息步伐。他表示：“劳动力市场状况已经降温。美联储凭什么认为这会自行稳定下来？它不能也不会，这意味着最终需要采取政策应对措施。"（金十）

分析师：就业市场最终将推动美联储降息

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro believes that the job market will ultimately drive the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts. He stated: "The labor market conditions have cooled down. Why would the Federal Reserve think this will stabilize on its own? It cannot and will not, which means policy measures will ultimately need to be taken." (Jinshi)

Analyst: Job market will eventually push Fed to cut rates

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: SignatureFD analyst Tony Welch stated that the U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped after the Federal Reserve meeting, which may indicate investors' concerns that tight monetary policy will impact the economy. Currently, the economy is slowing down, and implementing a tight monetary policy for a longer period will certainly be a negative factor. Trump's tariffs are influencing the Federal Reserve's thinking, as the FOMC statement "initially" mentioned trade. Powell will use the word "uncertainty" multiple times during the press conference. (Jin Shi)

Analysts: Tight monetary policy will drag down US economic outlook

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."

JPMorgan Chase: Two major factors hinder the Fed from starting to cut interest rates, and the final decision often lags behind the economic situation

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Hal Panney, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said in a report that if the Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance on the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months at Wednesday's meeting, the US dollar may not necessarily appreciate. He said that since early April, the euro has strengthened, despite the yield spread between two-year EU and US Treasury bonds moving in a direction favorable to the US. This means that cautious signals about rate cuts may not necessarily boost the US dollar. Hal Panney said that policy uncertainty and strong expectations of a weakening US economy suggest that the US dollar may remain weak or further depreciate. (Jintian)