Big fluctuation warning! Powell will go to Congress tonight to deliver his annual monetary policy. Will there be any changes in the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts?
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The Federal Reserve's website calendar shows that Federal Reserve Chair Ren Powell will attend a Senate Banking Committee hearing at 11 PM Taiwan time on the 11th, deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and then appear before the House Financial Services Committee at 11 PM on the 12th. Bloomberg reports that lawmakers from both parties are expected to question Ren Powell about the impact of Trump's policies on bank regulation, the Fed's backtracking on DEI policies, and monetary policy, among other issues.
Ren Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony comes at a time when Trump's trade, tax, immigration, and regulatory policies are creating uncertainty for the US economic outlook, further complicating the Fed's efforts to lower inflation and maintain a healthy job market.
Focusing on Monetary Policy
The Fed has been unable to achieve its 2% inflation target since 2021, which may draw scrutiny from lawmakers. New House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill stated that many members are concerned about the Fed's post-pandemic policies.
Since September last year, the Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 1%. Reports indicate that Fed officials currently want to pause the rate cuts to assess the economic impact, so Ren Powell has no reason to deviate from this trend, as the January non-farm payroll data shows employment remains strong, with the unemployment rate falling to 4%, though inflation remains above the central bank's target.
Additionally, there is market concern about whether Trump will influence the interest rate decision, as he expressed dissatisfaction with Ren Powell after the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged in January. However, Trump's attitude has softened recently, as he praised the decision to keep rates unchanged on February 2 as the "right decision." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated last week that he "believes Ren Powell will do the right thing and will not be criticized."
Some Democratic lawmakers may question Ren Powell about Trump's tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, and the potential impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation. Ren Powell has traditionally been conservative in commenting on Trump's policies, but may take a more definitive stance under questioning from lawmakers.
French Hill stated that he is concerned about the Fed's upcoming review of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and indicated that "the Fed's assessment of its inflation target and its inflation analysis and planning are a focus of policymakers in Washington."
Expected to Maintain a Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts
In a report, Credit Suisse analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya stated that despite increasing pressure from Trump to cut rates, Ren Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts, as the US economy remains healthy, the job market is strong, and inflation is stable. Trump's economic stimulus policies and tariff threats may exacerbate inflation, and Ren Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts may strengthen the US dollar.
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