CITIC Securities: Maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year

Odaily reports that a research report by CITIC Securities indicates that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in January 2025 was lower than expected, with the healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the US did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The declining unemployment rate, rising wage growth, and the smaller-than-expected downward revision in the annual revision suggest a healthy job market. We expect the impact of the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk to be relatively small on the new non-farm employment in 2025. The non-farm data has broken the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of rate cuts has been postponed again. The market's focus will now be on the tariff fog and inflation expectations of Trump, and US stocks are expected to maintain high volatility. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, US bond yields and the US dollar index may rise again. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, each by 25bps. (Gold Ten)