Odaily星球日报讯 路透调查显示，受访的 101 位经济学家中有 67 位认为美联储将在 6 月底前至少降息一次（1 月调查中接近 60%的经济学家预计是 3 月底前降息一次），99 位经济学家中有 57 位认为美联储今年还将另外降息一次或两次（1 月调查中 102 位经济学家中有 56 位这样预期）。 此外，46 位经济学家中有 27 位表示，关税带来的通胀风险最近有所上升，17 位表示没有变化，2 位表示下降。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 路透调查显示，受访的 101 位经济学家中有 67 位认为美联储将在 6 月底前至少降息一次（1 月调查中接近 60%的经济学家预计是 3 月底前降息一次），99 位经济学家中有 57 位认为美联储今年还将另外降息一次或两次（1 月调查中 102 位经济学家中有 56 位这样预期）。此外，46 位经济学家中有 27 位表示，关税带来的通胀风险最近有所上升，17 位表示没有变化，2 位表示下降。（金十）

路透调查：超6成受访经济学家认为美联储将在6月底前至少降息一次

Odaily reports that a Reuters survey shows that 67 out of 101 economists surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of June (nearly 60% of economists in the January survey expected a rate cut by the end of March), and 57 out of 99 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates one or two more times this year (56 out of 102 economists in the January survey had the same expectation). Additionally, 27 out of 46 economists said the inflation risk from tariffs has recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it has decreased. (Jinshi)

Reuters poll: More than 60% of economists surveyed believe the Fed will cut interest rates at least once before the end of June

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The news from Mars Finance shows that over the past week, concerns about the trade war have been lingering in the minds of global investors, and Trump's erratic behavior has exacerbated market volatility. At the same time, the latest non-farm data and the University of Michigan consumer survey have further clouded the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Trump is unlikely to give the market a chance to blink in the coming week, and further news on his tariff plans will continue to attract close attention. In addition, US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill may be key factors affecting expectations of a US rate cut in the near term. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:

Monday 22:00, ECB President Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB's 2023 Annual Report
Tuesday 0:00, US January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation
Tuesday 21:50, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on the economic outlook
Tuesday 23:00, Fed Chair Powell testifies before the Senate and delivers the semi-annual monetary policy report
Wednesday 4:30, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks
Wednesday 21:30, US January CPI, core CPI
Wednesday 23:00, Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy
Thursday 1:00, 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 8
Thursday 21:30, US January PPI YoY, MoM
Friday 21:30, US January retail sales MoM
Friday 22:15, US January industrial production MoM

Several Wall Street analysts have warned that due to seasonal factors, January is traditionally a more challenging time for CPI forecasting, which increases the potential for market volatility around the data release. According to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting indicator, the overall CPI year-over-year growth rate is expected to be 2.85% in January, and the core CPI year-over-year growth rate to be 3.13%, only slightly slower than the previous month. This should reinforce market expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady at its March meeting.

Macro outlook for next week: Trump barely leaves the market a chance to blink, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates stable

Odaily reports that a research report by CITIC Securities indicates that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in January 2025 was lower than expected, with the healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the US did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The declining unemployment rate, rising wage growth, and the smaller-than-expected downward revision in the annual revision suggest a healthy job market. We expect the impact of the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk to be relatively small on the 2025 non-farm employment growth. The non-farm data has broken the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of rate cuts has been postponed again. The market's focus will now be on the tariff fog and inflation expectations of Trump, and US stocks are expected to maintain high volatility. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, US bond yields and the US dollar index may rise again. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, each by 25bps. (Gold Ten)

CITIC Securities: Maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year

Odaily reports that after the January interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve has entered a pause in rate cuts. The non-farm data shows that the US labor market remains resilient. After officially taking office, Trump's tariff policy has been flip-flopping, with limited actual implementation. In addition, the impact of Trump's external tariff policy on inflation also needs to be observed for some time, and the tariff issue will continue to disrupt the market. Since January, the price of gold has continued to rise and hit new highs, with the demand for safe-haven caused by the tariff issue being the dominant factor, and the reaction to the fundamental data has faded. The January non-farm report was generally bearish for gold and did not provide more upward momentum. The Federal Reserve's pause in rate cuts and the stability of the job market provide support for the US dollar index, while US bond yields face upward risks and are expected to stop falling and rebound, and the stock market will continue to fluctuate.