Odaily星球日报讯 美银分析师写道，特朗普的贸易、财政和移民政策议程预计将引发温和通胀，并预测这些变化将在 2025 年下半年反映在通胀上。 他们指出，未来几周的任何额外关税都可能使时间表提前：“一个关键问题是，政策变化是否会影响长期通胀预期。”他们补充称，基于市场的通胀指标仍在历史区间内。 美银重申其立场，即美联储的降息周期已经结束，通胀“高于目标”，预计 1 月份整体和核心 CPI 环比均增长 0.3%。他们写道：“如果我们对 1 月份 CPI 的预测是正确的，那么美联储按兵不动的理由将进一步增强。”（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 美银分析师写道，特朗普的贸易、财政和移民政策议程预计将引发温和通胀，并预测这些变化将在 2025 年下半年反映在通胀上。他们指出，未来几周的任何额外关税都可能使时间表提前：“一个关键问题是，政策变化是否会影响长期通胀预期。”他们补充称，基于市场的通胀指标仍在历史区间内。美银重申其立场，即美联储的降息周期已经结束，通胀“高于目标”，预计 1 月份整体和核心 CPI 环比均增长 0.3%。他们写道：“如果我们对 1 月份 CPI 的预测是正确的，那么美联储按兵不动的理由将进一步增强。”（金十）

美银：预计下半年关税对通胀的影响显现，美联储已结束降息周期

Odaily reports that Bank of America analysts wrote that Trump's trade, fiscal and immigration policy agenda is expected to generate moderate inflation, and they predict that these changes will be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They pointed out that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could accelerate the timeline: "A key question is whether policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations." They added that market-based inflation indicators remain within historical ranges. Bank of America reiterated its position that the Fed's rate cut cycle has ended, and inflation is "above target," and they expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month in January. They wrote: "If our forecast for January CPI is correct, the Fed's rationale for standing pat will be further strengthened." (Jinshi)

Odaily reports that Bank of America analysts wrote that Trump's trade, fiscal and immigration policy agenda is expected to generate moderate inflation, and they predict that these changes will be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They pointed out that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could accelerate the timeline: "A key question is whether policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations." They added that market-based inflation indicators remain within historical ranges. Bank of America reiterated its position that the Fed's rate cut cycle has ended, and inflation is "above target," and they expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month in January. They wrote: "If our forecast for January CPI is correct, the Fed's rationale for standing pat will be further reinforced." (Jinshi)

Bank of America: The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become apparent in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve has ended its interest rate cut cycle

Odaily reports that a Reuters survey shows that 67 out of 101 economists surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of June (nearly 60% of economists in the January survey expected a rate cut by the end of March), and 57 out of 99 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates one or two more times this year (56 out of 102 economists in the January survey had the same expectation). Additionally, 27 out of 46 economists said the inflation risk from tariffs has recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it has decreased. (Jinshi)

Reuters poll: More than 60% of economists surveyed believe the Fed will cut interest rates at least once before the end of June

Odaily reports that a research report by CITIC Securities indicates that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in January 2025 was lower than expected, with the healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the US did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The declining unemployment rate, rising wage growth, and the smaller-than-expected downward revision in the annual revision suggest a healthy job market. We expect the impact of the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk to be relatively small on the 2025 non-farm employment growth. The non-farm data has broken the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of rate cuts has been postponed again. The market's focus will now be on the tariff fog and inflation expectations of Trump, and US stocks are expected to maintain high volatility. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, US bond yields and the US dollar index may rise again. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, each by 25bps. (Gold Ten)

CITIC Securities: Maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year

Odaily Odaily reports that Michael Pound, head of Barclays' global inflation-related research, said that the price of inflation-indexed bonds reflects that the US inflation rate will increase by 0.2 percentage points over the next year, about a quarter of which is due to gasoline. (<金十>)