Murphy

Murphy

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17年入币圈，吃过"猪肉"也见过"猪跑"。这里有凡人逆袭跨越阶层的黄金机遇，但同样需遵循财富的边际是认知的客观定律；努力将链上数据分析和宏观情绪研究相结合，构建适合自己的交易思维。始终保持积极、乐观、谨慎！

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Has ETH's "changing of the guard" ended? A few days ago, a friend asked about the concentration of ETH chips. I previously shared that the Herfindahl index can well reflect the concentration issue. It can measure the share of network addresses in the current supply, with a higher index indicating that chips are concentrating among fewer holders, while a lower index suggests a more uniform distribution of chips. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Abnormal on-chain data! Serious divergence has emerged Wu Xiong wrote at the end of his tweet: "Heavyweight economic data is about to be released, and the market is clearly concerned about how the actual economic data will perform. Many may seek safe-haven assets before，before is published next Wednesday...", but what I see from the on-chain data is not a "possibility", but a true "fact". (Figure 1) twitter.com/qinbafrank/status/...

Why is <BTC> at $81,000 so resilient?! The tough tariff policy exceeded everyone's expectations, with VIX surging and S&P and Nasdaq plummeting... According to past patterns, <BTC> should have already fallen into the $70,000 range, or even the $60,000 range would not be surprising. However, the fact is that <BTC> has repeatedly found effective support at over $81,000! Many people are puzzled by this, believing that there is no reason for such strong support here and finding it hard to understand..... twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Long-term holders become the key factor in suppressing BTC's reversal Typically during bull market pullbacks, BTC's price repeatedly challenges the STH-RPC - short-term holders' average turnover cost, currently at $93,000; since February this year, BTC has not seen a substantial rebound. It has either been a low-volatility sideways movement (such as 2/5-2/23) or rebounds falling short of expectations (such as 3/13-3/25). (Figure 1) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

This cycle has a total of 3 obvious trend markets. The first segment is from October 2023 to January 2024 (BTC from $27,000 to $47,000); the second segment is from January 2024 to March 2024 (BTC from $40,000 to $73,000); the third segment is from October 2024 to January 2025 (BTC from $60,000 to $108,000). Each of these segments can be perfectly measured by the "MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Indicator" to determine the range of changes in momentum.

The culprits behind the amplified BTC volatility — leveraged liquidations and liquidity depletion

The important basis for judging the transition of the bull market cycle —— The timestamp of on-chain data In the on-chain data analysis of BTC, there are 2 core concepts, namely "timestamp" and "price stamp". Due to the transparency of the blockchain, we are able to observe each on-chain transaction and identify two key details: 1. The time when the chip movement occurs: timestamp; 2. The price at the time of the transaction: price stamp.

The Escape to the Top 2025 - The Actual Application of "On-Chain Data" (7) 🔹 Preface The comment section of yesterday's tweet exploded, and I didn't expect so many friends to leave messages for me. It is really rare to find so many people in this frenetic circle who are willing to calm down and rationally analyze the research. <x.com/i/web/status/18648762112...> <twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...> HT

Is it time for us to take action? Recently, I may reduce the frequency of tweets, not because I am lazy, but because all important data and indicators show that we have entered a critical moment. To be precise, it should be an important "time period" (a period of time, not a certain point in time). … x.com/i/web/status/18584850788... twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

ETH on-chain data explained, here's what you've been waiting for! (Twitter threads) 🚩Why has ETH performed so poorly this round? 🚩Does ETH still have hope? 🚩Under what circumstances can ETH make up for the losses?

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