Source: Fortune
Arthur Hayes is a prominent early Bit figure who co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 with others, but later came into conflict with US regulatory agencies. Hayes recently admitted to failing to implement sufficient anti-money laundering controls and accepted a probation and fine, but was fully pardoned by President Donald Trump earlier this year. Today, his focus is on managing the family fund Maelstrom, but Hayes remains a deeply influential figure in the digital asset space.
Fortune freelance journalist Anna Tutova interviewed him during the Token2049 event in Dubai, where he shared his views on current market trends, including predicting that Bit price could reach $200,000 in the near term and potentially $1 million by 2028.
In the Q&A session, Hayes also delved into the Ethereum and other Altcoin markets, explaining why he surprisingly allocated 20% of his assets to gold. He also issued some alarming warnings about the continuously expanding US debt. (Interview content has been edited for clarity and conciseness.)
Q1: You described the US Treasury's recent borrowing strategy as a trick. Why?
Hayes: The Treasury has been depleting its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, or TGA) and using "extraordinary measures" (underfunded projects) to circumvent borrowing limits, causing the TGA to drop from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter. He noted that this is equivalent to spending $300 billion without new debt, which means the actual borrowing far exceeds official data.
"This is confusing," he said, "because we are in a debt ceiling period. So the US government cannot net borrow more money. They have various ways of spending money while staying under the debt ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Treasury's borrowing increased by 22% compared to the same period last year. So the deficit is higher."
Q2: What impact does this have on Bit?
Hayes: "I think the US government needs to borrow more money than we imagine, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt, and thus needs to find a way to get as much leverage as possible through the banking system, which ultimately means more dollars in circulation, because the US government is spending more materially.
This is the point about repurchases, and why I think it has a positive effect on market liquidity, which is why I believe Bit bottomed on April 9th, and as the government continues to borrow, and Bessent takes necessary measures to secure funding at affordable rates, Bit will continue to rise."
Q3: So, at what point would Bit trigger an Altcoin season, and what are the factors?
Hayes: I believe Bit needs to break through $110,000, and trading volume needs to reach correspondingly 150,000 to 200,000. I think this might happen in the summer or early third quarter, and then the market will start rotating into various Altcoins.
Q4: Do you think this will be like a mild Altcoin rise, or like the crazy Altcoin super cycle we saw in 2021?
Hayes: I don't think we'll see a situation like 2021 where everything rises 100x. We'll have a new narrative, people will try trading, prices will rise to crazy levels, but those old coins in your portfolio that haven't moved might remain inactive. I think many of these coins have very high FDV, low circulation, no customers, no revenue, just listed on some centralized exchanges (CEX), and these coins have dropped 95%, and I really can't see them performing well in the next cycle.
Q5: What constitutes a good return in this market, and what price targets do you typically aim for?
Hayes: "They need to outperform Bit's returns. So, if we're deploying capital, it needs to perform better than Bit."
Q6: What are your expectations for Trump's policies?
Hayes: I think they will do some things that are favorable to crypto. But this doesn't mean your specific project will appreciate. Nor does it mean they will do this on a timeline that seems reasonable to you.
I think people's expectations are very high, believing crypto is Trump's top priority. You know, Trump is a politician with many things to focus on, so I think people need to be patient.
Q7: Additionally, during market volatility, we've seen gold prices rise significantly. Are you investing in gold or purely in crypto?
Hayes: I've held gold for a long time, so I have physical gold in my vault. I hold many gold mining stocks, and considering the significant gold price increase, I think these stocks are still undervalued. I believe gold prices could rise significantly in the future as central banks are buying gold.
I still believe the US will substantially increase its gold holdings, thereby lowering the USD/gold exchange rate. Therefore, I think by the end of this rally, gold prices could reach $10,000 to $20,000.
Q8: What percentage of your portfolio is in gold?
Hayes: "About 20%."
Q9: That's quite a lot! There's also much discussion about Ethereum and Solana. Which will perform better?
Hayes: I think Ethereum has better prospects, mainly because it's hated, everyone thinks it hasn't done anything right, but it still has the highest total locked value (TVL), still has the most developers, and is still the most secure Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain. Yes, its price performance from 2020 to now hasn't been great.
Solana rose from $7 to $172, obviously performing well. But if I were to inject new fiat capital into the system, I think Ethereum might outperform Solana in the next 18-24 months bull market.
Q10: You previously predicted Bit would reach $1 million. When will this happen?
Hayes: "I think by the end of President Trump's term, which is around the end of 2028, Bit's price will be around $1 million.
Q11: What's the next move for crypto this year?
Hayes: So I think Bit's dominance will continue to rise. I believe Bit might approach $200,000 in the next mild rally. Then Altcoin season will arrive, and we'll see some interesting things. By the end of this year, Bit's price target is around $250,000.
