Author: Hotcoin Research
I. Introduction
With Bitcoin's price returning above $100,000 and Ethereum significantly rebounding, the crypto market is experiencing an overall uptrend. On-chain activities and transaction volumes of multiple public chains have risen significantly, indicating renewed enthusiasm for capital inflow and continued recovery of risk appetite. Under the dual influence of macroeconomic benefits and internal market momentum, the crypto market is currently in a high-energy accumulation phase.
Against this backdrop, the market is widely concerned about whether the Altcoin season has begun. This article conducts an in-depth analysis of the current market characteristics and driving factors from multiple dimensions such as macroeconomic environment, market structure, on-chain indices, characteristics of the current Altcoin market, and potential track trends. It also provides a forward-looking perspective on possible future trends and risks, offering readers a reference for understanding the current crypto market landscape and future trends.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the technical terminology and context.]Rise Pattern and Rotation Sequence: This round of altcoin market presents a characteristic of "large-cap leading, gradually expanding". In early May, large-cap cryptocurrencies like ETH, Solana, and BNB were first activated, with daily gains ranging from 5-15%. Subsequently, mid-cap mainstream tokens (such as MKR, CRV, AAVE) also experienced a rebound. In comparison, small-cap and long-tail assets did not immediately surge synchronously. This might reflect that current funds are more inclined towards projects with fundamental support, and the prelude to speculative trading has not yet fully unfolded. Of course, as the market evolves, the possibility of mid and small-cap tokens rebounding or even experiencing explosive growth cannot be ruled out.
Driving Narrative and Capital Nature: The 2017 altcoin boom was driven by ICO concepts, where numerous new tokens could surge based solely on a whitepaper; 2021 saw narratives like DeFi, Doge frenzy, and NFT/metaverse taking turns, backed by massive retail investor sentiment. This round's market narrative is more diverse and "professionalized". The leading market themes, such as AI and RWA, relatively attract not just speculative investors, but also a significant proportion of institutional and industrial capital.
Investor Structure and Profile: This crypto market's participation structure is characterized by significantly reduced retail investor involvement compared to the previous round, with an increased proportion of institutional capital. Institutional investors played the role of "incremental funds" in this round. This means the current market is often a game between institutions. The current market participants are more "veterans" who have experienced multiple cycles, with funds switching quickly between sectors and hot spots having shorter durations, lacking the one-sided surge seen during retail investor frenzies. This verifies the market's characteristics of short-term speculation without long-term trends due to retail investor absence. Additionally, the increased derivatives market share indicates more professional funds using futures and options for leveraged trading, which is entirely different from previous retail investors' spot-only approach. All these factors make this round's market volatility and structure more complex.
Regulatory Environment and Market Ecology: Previous altcoin frenzies often occurred during periods of relatively absent regulation and "wild growth", whereas now global regulation is accelerating its intervention. In this round, regulatory factors have become somewhat favorable: the US regulatory attitude trending towards leniency, ETF approvals, trading openness in places like Hong Kong, and Bitcoin strategic reserves have all provided positive market expectations. This means institutional capital can participate more aggressively in crypto asset investments. Such ecological changes suggest this altcoin season might be more orderly and emphasize value support.
Although the RWA concept is hot, the participation of ordinary retail investors is currently relatively limited. Due to many RWA products involving compliance requirements (KYC, qualified investor thresholds) and professional knowledge, small-scale investors mostly remain at the stage of hearing about the concept. This means that the market trend of the RWA track is mainly driven by large funds.
V. Conclusion and Outlook
Various signs indicate that the crypto market has significantly warmed up, but the true peak of frenzy may not have arrived yet, with the "Altcoin season" about to emerge. Bitcoin's dominance has fallen from its high, numerous Altcoins are rising in turn, new narratives are emerging, and market sentiment is shifting from cautious to greedy... Comprehensively speaking, the current market is in a transition phase from a "Bitcoin market" to an "Altcoin market", with the Altcoin season being initially brewed and unfolding, but not yet reaching its most crazy final stage.
In summary, the current cryptocurrency market is at a delicate balance point: Bitcoin charging ahead, Altcoins preparing to make a move, with institutional rationality and retail investor sentiment intertwining. The Altcoin season is brewing but has not yet fully erupted. We anticipate that with the continuation of macro-positive factors and further capital inflow, the Altcoin sector may usher in a more surging climax in the second half of the year. However, this time, the market trend may not simply replicate the past crazy mode, but evolve with new characteristics in a mature market environment.
Macro liquidity will be the decisive factor affecting the length and height of this market trend. The current market consensus is that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut rates in the second half of 2025. Once entering a substantial rate-cutting cycle, global liquidity will further loosen, and risk assets are expected to welcome a "second half acceleration". Therefore, this crypto bull market may see a "double peak" - rising in the first half driven by expectations, and then triggering another climax in the second half due to actual easing. This means that the Altcoin market may not only not come to an abrupt end but also have a second spring to look forward to. If liquidity further improves and narratives continue to ferment, the peak of the Altcoin season may appear in the second half of 2025 or early 2026. Before that, this feast will most likely continue for some time.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and all-day market fluctuation monitoring, combined with the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing, providing precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Relying on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly grasping value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
