Chainfeeds Guide:
The ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks the 3-year downward trend, signaling the arrival of the Altcoin season. Chinese version compiled and published by PANews.
Article Source:
https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articledetails/9j5gf42u.html
Article Author:
cyclop
Perspective:
cyclop: Yes, the cycle has indeed undergone some changes, and I have already detailed the process and reasons for these changes in the referenced post. However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more sustainable Altcoin season, and this trend does not require Bitcoin's price to surge to $150,000. The narrative around BTC has fundamentally transformed, from being viewed as a Ponzi scheme to: a top-tier investment asset for macro hedging, the sixth-largest asset by market cap (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and the primary solution for countries facing isolation or high inflation. Bitcoin's rise from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for launching the Altcoin season. Bitcoin's surge and plunge percentages will become smaller as its market cap expands. Each year, Bitcoin increasingly becomes a store of value asset rather than a speculative one. This is the "value" of Altcoins. High market cap Altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "Bitcoin alternatives". They are now viewed as tech companies operating within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, Solana is like high-performance infrastructure, and so on. This cognitive shift has occurred in previous market cycles, each time marking the start of an Altcoin season. Now, let's discuss what actually changed, ultimately making the Altcoin season possible. After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke the three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every skeptic became a believer. Bitcoin's dominance just experienced its most violent three-day decline since November 2024. The Altcoin market sentiment plummeted to freezing point, and even after this slight rally, retail participation remains at historic lows. In my view, the Pectra upgrade was a game-changer. The proposal also addressed the biggest obstacle to the Ethereum-driven Altcoin season surge: user interface and user experience layer issues. Despite massive adoption, the retail index is currently near its historical lowest point. This factor has always played a crucial role in the early stages of previous Altcoin seasons. Now, it's again a positive signal. Let me elaborate: It's important to understand a simple truth - assets peak when in absolute optimal condition and bottom out in despair. Altcoins are still deeply troubled, but from this moment, the only way forward is to rise against the trend and bounce back. Catalysts for Ethereum and other Altcoins' rise? Many. Reasons for decline? Zero, the market is extremely bearish. Even after doubling from the bottom, the retail index (partially) has not yet appeared or met the standard. Finally, we've reached a point where even if Altcoins have already risen 4-fold, they still seem capable of rising 10-fold. ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend for five consecutive months, which negatively impacted ETH. Its price and attention both dropped, making it harder for Altcoins to rise. After breaking through a key resistance, Ethereum's price surged, releasing a strong signal for Altcoins' rise
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