“我个人还配置了20%的黄金，预计本轮行情结束时金价可能涨至1-2万美元。”

本文来自：Fortune编译｜Odaily星球日报（<a href="https://x.com/OdailyChina" rel="nofollow">@OdailyChina</a>）；译者｜Azuma（<a href="https://x.com/azuma_eth" rel="nofollow">@azuma_eth</a>）<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/0a3a30c91d0194ef89a59fbe1aa05215.jpg">Arthur Hayes 是比特币早期的标志性人物，他于 2014 年联合创立了离岸交易所 BitMEX，后因违反美国监管规定面临法律问题。近期，Hayes 承认未能建立足够的反洗钱控制措施，接受了缓刑并支付罚款，但在年初已获得了特朗普的全面赦免。目前，Hayes 专注于管理家族基金 Maelstrom，同时仍是加密资产领域极具影响力的人物。《财富》特约作者 Anna Tutova 在迪拜 Token-2049 期间对他进行了专访，Hayes 分享了对当前市场的看法 —— 包括预测 BTC 短期内可能达到 20 万美元， 2028 年有望突破 100 万美元。在访谈中，Hayes 还分析了 ETH 和山寨币市场，并解释了他选择配置 20% 黄金资产的原因。以下为全部访谈，内容经过精简和编辑。<h2>Q1：关于美国的真实赤字</h2>Anna：你将美国财政部近期的借贷操作称为“障眼法”，为什么？Arthur Hayes：财政部一直在消耗其“支票账户”（Treasury General Account，TGA）并动用"特别措施"（资金不足的政府项目）来规避借款限额，导致本季度 TGA 从 7500 亿美元降至 4500 亿美元，这意味着 3000 亿美元的支出没有通过新增债务实现，实际借款规模远超官方数据。这很令人困惑。因为我们正处于债务上限时期，理论上美国政府不能净增加借款，但他们通过各种会计手段维持支出而不突破上限。2025 年 1 月至 3 月，财政部借款规模比去年同期高出 22% ，赤字实际上在扩大。<h2>Q2：关于市场流动性</h2>Anna：这对比特币意味着什么？Arthur Hayes：我认为美国政府的实际借款需求比公开数据显示的要大得多，因此财长 Bessent 将不得不发行更多债务，并需要通过银行系统为这些债务提供最大限度的杠杆。最终结果是全球美元流动性进一步泛滥，因为美国政府正在增加支出。简而言之，这就是回购操作的实质，也是我认为它会提升市场流动性的原因。基于此，我判断比特币已在 4 月 9 日触底，随着政府持续借款且 Bessent 确保低成本融资，比特币的价格将继续大幅上涨。<h2>Q3：关于山寨季 </h2>Anna：那么比特币需要涨到什么位置才会开启山寨币行情？推动山寨季启动的关键因素是什么？Arthur Hayes：我认为比特币需要突破 11 万美元，并持续放量上涨至 15 - 20 万美元区间。我预计这个情况会在今年夏季或第三季度初出现，之后资金就会开始轮动到各类山寨币。<h2>Q4：关于牛市涨幅预期</h2>Anna：你认为接下来的山寨币行情会像 2021 年那样出现疯狂的超周期暴涨吗？还是只会小幅反弹？Arthur Hayes：不太可能重现 2021 年那种所有币都暴涨 100 倍的盛况。市场会出现新的叙事热点，某些币可能会疯狂上涨，但你持仓里那些长期滞涨的“恐龙币”不涨是有原因的。很多项目估值虚高、流通量低、缺乏真实用户和收入，仅仅靠着交易所上币炒作，现在价格已经跌去 95% ，我不认为它们下个周期会有亮眼表现。<h2>Q5：关于个人收益期望</h2>Anna：你在这轮行情中的预期收益率是多少？通常设定的目标价位和回报率是怎样的？Arthur Hayes：至少要跑赢比特币的涨幅。如果我们决定配置资金，标的资产必须能超越比特币的收益率。<h2>Q6：关于特朗普</h2>Anna：你对特朗普的加密政策有何预期？Arthur Hayes：他的团队应该会推出对加密利好的政策，但这不意味着你持有的特定项目就一定会升值，也不代表政策会按照你预期的时间表推进。目前市场的预期实在太高了，有些人甚至认为加密政策将是特朗普的首要任务。但别忘了特朗普是政客，他有太多优先级更高的事务要处理，大家需要保持耐心。<h2>Q7：关于黄金</h2>Anna：在市场不确定性加剧的背景下，我们看到黄金出现了大幅上涨。你是否配置了黄金资产，还是完全专注于加密货币？Arthur Hayes：我长期持有黄金，在保险库中存有实物金条，同时持有大量黄金矿业股票 —— 考虑到金价飙升，这些标的目前依然被低估。我认为黄金还有很大上涨空间，因为各国央行正在持续增持。更重要的是，我预计美国将大幅重估其黄金储备价值，通过美元对黄金贬值来实现债务稀释。在这轮行情结束时，金价可能达到 1 万至 2 万美元。黄金在我个人投资组合中的占比约为 20% 。<h2>Q8：关于 ETH vs SOL</h2>Anna：这个比例相当高！现在市场上关于 ETH 和 SOL 的争论很多，你更看好哪个？Arthur Hayes：我认为 ETH 更具上涨潜力，虽然它现在备受质疑 —— 所有人都觉得它毫无作为，开发团队屡屡犯错，但现实是它依然保持着最高的链上锁仓量（TVL），拥有最庞大的开发者社区，并且是最安全的 PoS 区块链。没错，尽管从 2020 年至今它的价格表现确实不尽如人意。SOL 显然表现亮眼，但如果我现在要用法币进行新一轮配置，我认为在未来 18-24 个月的牛市中，ETH 的涨幅可能会超越 SOL。<h2>Q9：关于 100 万美元的 BTC</h2>Anna：你此前预测比特币将达到 100 万美元，这个目标何时会实现？Arthur Hayes：我认为在特朗普总统任期结束前，也就是 2028 年底，比特币会达到 100 万美元。<h2>Q10：关于年度走势预期</h2>Anna：你如何预期今年加密市场的具体走势？Arthur Hayes：：比特币的主导地位将继续上升，在这波上涨中可能逼近 20 万美元。随后山寨币季节到来，我们会看到一些有趣的现象。到年底时，比特币的目标价位大约是 25 万美元。

十问Arthur Hayes：山寨季何时到来？ETH和SOL后市谁更强势？

"Personally, I have allocated 20% to gold, and I expect the gold price may rise to $10,000-$20,000 by the end of this market trend."

This article is from: FortuneCompiled by: Odaily (Twitter: @OdailyChina); Translator: Azuma (Twitter: @azuma_eth)<img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/0a3a30c91d0194ef89a59fbe1aa05215.jpg">Arthur Hayes is an iconic early Bitcoin figure who co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014, later facing legal issues for violating US regulatory requirements. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish sufficient anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation and paid fines, but received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.Currently, Hayes focuses on managing his family fund Maelstrom while remaining an influential figure in the crypto asset space. Fortune's special contributor Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market - including predicting BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and potentially break $1 million by 2028.During the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and Altcoin markets and explained why he chose to allocate 20% of his assets to gold.Below is the full interview, condensed and edited.

[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]

10 Questions for Arthur Hayes: When will the altcoin season come? Which will be stronger in the future, ETH or SOL?

Table of Contents
- Retail Investor Index
- ETH/BTC Trend Chart
- Altcoin Research Methodology
- Project Analysis
- Conclusion

Is the Altcoin season about to arrive? These are the most clear bull market signals I've seen in my seven years in the crypto market: BTC is approaching its all-time high, retail investor interest is near its historical low point, ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks the 3-year downward trend, Altcoin index rebounds from the interval low point.
[2025051621470403026167 | BlockTempo-The Most Influential Blockchain News Media]
Every factor has previously triggered Altcoins...

If the altcoin season comes: How to build a suitable Altcoin investment portfolio?

This article conducts an in-depth analysis of the current market characteristics and driving factors from multiple dimensions, including macroeconomic environment, market structure, on-chain indices, characteristics of the current altcoin market, and potential track trends.

Author: <Hotcoin Research>
I. Introduction
With Bitcoin's price rising again above $100,000 and Ethereum experiencing a significant rebound, the crypto market is showing an overall upward trend. On-chain activities and transaction volumes of multiple public chains have significantly increased, indicating renewed enthusiasm for capital inflow and a continuous recovery of risk appetite. Under the combined effects of macroeconomic positive factors and internal market momentum, the crypto market is currently in a high-energy accumulation phase.

In this context...

Hotcoin Research | Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, is the Altcoin season really coming?

According to the latest announcement from BNB Chain, the platform's Foundation has completed a new Token purchase round as part of a 100 million USD ecosystem promotion program. Specifically, the Foundation has spent 25,000...