Is the Altcoin season about to arrive? These are the most clear bull market signals I've seen in my seven years in the crypto market: BTC is approaching its all-time high, retail interest is near its historical low, ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks a 3-year downward trend, and the Altcoin index rebounds from its range low point.
Each factor has previously triggered an Altcoin season. Now that they are all converging, they will create a resonance. Is this really the beginning of the next Altcoin season?
I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but I truly believe we are finally about to see a massive surge in Altcoins.
In this long-form post, I will provide a detailed analysis of:
- How market sentiment is changing and why I'm bullish
- What changes have already occurred that will make the Altcoin season a reality?
- Key future catalysts
- Major indicators and their signals
- Which Altcoins might experience a massive surge
- How to build a suitable Altcoin season investment portfolio
- How to research projects that are difficult to implement
I have been in the cryptocurrency field for 7 years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that triggered Altcoin seasons. Yes, the cycle has undergone some changes, and I have already detailed the process and reasons for these changes in the cited post.
However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more sustainable Altcoin season, and this trend does not require Bitcoin's price to surge to $150,000 to support it.
The narrative around BTC has fundamentally transformed, from being viewed as a Ponzi scheme to: a top-tier macro hedge investment, the sixth-largest asset by market cap (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and the primary strategy for countries facing isolation or high inflation.
Bitcoin's rise from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for launching the Altcoin season.
Bitcoin's surge percentage will become smaller, as will its drops. As market cap expands, its price volatility will become such. Each year, Bitcoin's trend of becoming a store of value becomes increasingly apparent, rather than a speculative asset.
This is where the "value" of Altcoins lies.
High market cap Altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer viewed as "Bitcoin alternatives". They are now seen as tech companies operating within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like NVIDIA, Solana is like high-performance infrastructure, and so on.
This cognitive shift has occurred in previous market cycles, and each time it has marked the beginning of an Altcoin season. Now, let's discuss what actual changes have occurred that will ultimately make the Altcoin season possible.
After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke the three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every skeptic became a believer. Bitcoin's dominance just experienced its most violent three-day drop since November 2024. The Altcoin market sentiment has plummeted to freezing point, and even after this slight rally, retail participation remains at historical lows. In my view, the Pectra upgrade changed the game. The plan also addressed the biggest obstacle facing the Ethereum-driven Altcoin season surge: user interface and user experience layer issues.
Retail Index
Despite widespread adoption, the current retail index is still near its historical low. This factor has always played a crucial role in the early stages of previous Altcoin seasons. Now, it is once again a positive signal. Let me elaborate:
It's important to understand a simple truth: assets peak when in absolute optimal condition and bottom out when in despair. Altcoins are still mired in difficulties, but from this moment, the only way out is to rise against the trend and rebound from the bottom.
Catalysts for Ethereum and other Altcoins? Many. Downward incentives? Zero, the market is extremely bearish. Even after doubling from the bottom, the retail index (partially) has not appeared or reached the target. Finally, we've reached a point where even if Altcoins have already risen 4-fold, it still seems possible to rise 10-fold.
ETH/BTC Trend Chart
ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend for five consecutive months, which has negatively impacted ETH. Both its price and attention have dropped, making it harder for Altcoins to rise. After breaking through a key resistance, Ethereum's price surged, releasing a strong signal for Altcoins to rise.
Now let's examine some key indicators, such as:
- Global liquidity
- Stablecoin index
- Altcoin season index
All these signals suggest a potential trend reversal and liquidity influx into the crypto market, indicating the arrival of an Altcoin season. But this Altcoin season will be different.
In the last cycle, there were fewer Altcoins, so almost all coins saw significant growth. This time is different: severe oversupply makes it difficult for all Altcoins to maintain their upward momentum. It's likely that less than 10% will experience significant changes, and the key is finding these potential coins.
Your choice depends on your risk tolerance and the profit you hope to achieve.
Large-cap stocks = Low profit + Low risk
Mid-cap stocks = Moderate profit + Moderate risk
Small-cap stocks = High profit + High risk
Altcoin Research Methodology
If it is a high market cap and utility token, rather than a new MEME coin, it's best to pay attention, as the risk of encountering fraud is lower. You can analyze tokens based on the following aspects:
- Market cap
- Liquidity
- Trading volume
- Centralized and decentralized exchange listing status
Then create a list of Altcoins you like.
Follow reliable KOLs and investigate whether they pay attention to or mention the project. If a project is followed by many KOLs but they themselves are not invested, it's likely garbage.
Project Analysis
Begin detailed research on the Altcoins in your list
Check the following:
1) What is the project's core concept? Is there market demand?
2) What is the product quality? Carefully review their official website and social media platforms.
3) Are the project team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?
Patience + Belief = Hundredfold Returns
Hundredfold returns will not be achieved in a day, week, or even a month.
Conduct in-depth research on potential projects and hold long-term.
Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.
The most important principle: Do not over-diversify your portfolio. Do not invest based on others' beliefs. The screenshot below explains why
Conclusion
Most indicators clearly predict the upcoming Altcoin season, and the rest is about being well-prepared. Remember: if you believe everything, it's equivalent to believing nothing. Do not select dozens of projects, at most select 5, and maintain a cautious attitude.
Only then can you capture those less than 10% of potential Altcoins that may achieve hundredfold or more returns. If this is not enough, look at this chart and you'll understand.
0/30 bull market peak indicators triggered. Strange, isn't it?
