On May 19, Bitcoin once exceeded $107,000, only $2,000 away from its all-time high. Ethereum hovered around $2,400, SOL hovered around $170, and a number of Altcoin fell after a short-term rise. According to coinglass data, the total open contracts on the entire network exploded by $577 million in 24 hours, with long orders exploded by $351 million and short orders exploded by $227 million. Under the volatile market, both long and short orders exploded.
The Sino-US tariff war has temporarily paused, and the altcoin market has rebounded after hitting bottom. How will the subsequent trend of the crypto market develop?
The market on Polymarket predicts that the probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month is 52%. The latest data shows that the market on Polymarket predicts that the probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month is as high as 52%, while this figure was only 37% on May 17.
The prediction market also predicts that the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $115,000 in May has risen to 20%, indicating that the market is bullish. Currently, the total transaction volume of the prediction market is about $15 million.
Trader James Wynn: Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $100,000
Trader James Wynn tweeted that it would be great if BTC could pull back below $100,000, then I could add more positions. Unfortunately, I think this may not happen.
glassnode: Long positions remain modest, limited leverage suggests healthy and sustainable market
Glassnode tweeted that despite the sharp rise in BTC prices, the funding rate of perpetual futures remains at a neutral level of about 0.007% - indicating that long positions are still relatively moderate. The derivatives market seems to be catching up with the spot market, and limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable trend.
Willy Woo: Bitcoin still has room to grow, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to stabilize at 8% in 15 to 20 years
Willy Woo, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, posted on social media that "Bitcoin has long passed the stage of several-fold annual growth in 2017. 2020 is a key year for Bitcoin's "institutionalization". Companies and sovereign institutions began to hoard Bitcoin, and the compound annual growth rate dropped from more than 100% to 30 to 40%. Bitcoin is now traded as the newest macro asset in 150 years, and it will continue to absorb global capital until it reaches a certain "equilibrium point."
Considering that long-term monetary expansion is about 5% and GDP growth is 3%, I think Bitcoin's final compound annual growth rate will stabilize at around 8%. It may take another 15 to 20 years before reaching the "equilibrium point". There are almost no other publicly investable assets that can match Bitcoin in long-term performance. "
Grayscale Research Director: Bitcoin market share may stabilize at 60% to 70% rather than usher in a copycat season
Zach Pandl, head of research at cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale, told Decrypt that Bitcoin's market share may stabilize in the 60% to 70% range rather than fall sharply. "When the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks to the US dollar, Bitcoin's dominance may rise, and when the market focuses on various applications of blockchain technology and innovation in the encryption field, Bitcoin's dominance may decline."
CryptoQuant analyst: Short positions are more cautious in the current cycle, which is usually a bullish signal
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr wrote that compared with the bull market in 2021, short traders in the current bull market cycle have been more cautious in establishing short positions. There was only one obvious long liquidation phenomenon in the callback when the Bitcoin price hit the $80,000 level. Analysts pointed out that this shift in sentiment shows that shorts have become more risk-averse, which is generally seen as a bullish signal.
