Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina）
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010）
As market policy benefits continue to emerge, the crypto market is gradually recovering, and Altcoins are ushering in their "second spring", with Meme coins particularly standing out: OKX marketshows that MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW have 24-hour gains of 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64% respectively. This wave of growth following BTC, ETH, and SOL has many diamond hands shouting "they're back, they're all back"; on the other side, some are bleeding internally looking at their significantly reduced positions. Regarding the future market trend, Odaily will sort out and summarize the recent market growth drivers and industry representative perspectives in this article for readers' reference.
Altcoin Season or Altcoin G? Market Divergence Remains, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase
As BTC, ETH, and SOL experienced a slight oscillating decline after recent significant increases, the crypto market's enthusiasm for altcoin season has reignited. Regarding whether we are about to enter altcoin season, industry representatives' views show significant divergence. Some believe altcoins will attract liquidity overflow from mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, leading to an increase; however, analysts also argue that altcoins have already dropped 80%-90% from their highs in January and earlier, with recent performance being merely a "dead cat bounce".
Bullish View: Trader Eugene Predicts Strong Altcoin Rebound
Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that although he correctly predicted the upward direction this time, he was stopped out by volatility, resulting in poor actual returns.Looking forward, reaching $10,000 confirmed the previous $90,000 support reversal, and the market is now likely to challenge the all-time high again, which was not originally expected, but funds from MicroStrategy and ETF seem to be continuous.
In contrast, until yesterday, most crypto veterans were still waiting (even shorting). With the expectation of a historical new high reigniting market enthusiasm, a strong rebound in altcoin total market value is anticipated.
Bullish View: Analyst Says Mainstream Market Participants Are Short-term Traders, Altcoin Season Has Arrived
Analyst 2 Lambroz believes the altcoin season might have arrived, but he notes that market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy, but lack confidence in any strong narrative." He points out that unlike 2021, there are no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders' fund turnover is faster, with almost no motivation to hold long-term positions. Technical trader Moustache is even more optimistic. He shared a chart showing altcoins repeatedly experiencing accumulation phases, followed by explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure is similar to 2016 and 2020. "The 2025 altcoin season has officially begun".
Neutral: CryptoQuant Founder Says Previous Judgment Was Wrong, Should Focus on Institutional Incremental Funds
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that his judgment about the end of the BTC bull market two months ago was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows BTC selling pressure is reducing, while ETF and other institutional funds are massively flowing in, driving market structure changes. He noted that the Bitcoin market was previously dominated by veteran whales, miners, and retail investors, making cycle tops easier to determine. Now, with ETF, MicroStrategy, institutional and government entities participating, the traditional logic of "whales selling triggering the top" is becoming invalid. Ki emphasized that in this new environment, more attention should be paid to incoming institutional incremental funds rather than old selling pressure signals.
Bearish View: Altcoins Down 90%, Golden Age Is Premature
Meanwhile, skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that most altcoins have dropped 90% since last December. This week's 10% small rebound has triggered excessive optimism, prompting him to mock this wave of recovery. "This is the altcoin golden age we've been waiting for."
Summary: MEME Coin Small Rebound Does Not Mean Altcoin Season Has Arrived
According to Coingecko data, BTC's market dominance still remains around 60%. Overall, it's difficult to say we've entered altcoin season; instead, "altcoin G" seems more appropriate. Coins currently performing well are mostly showing "local bull market" performance.
As Arthur Hayes stated in early May, "The question I'm most frequently asked recently is when altcoin season will come. And the answer is sometimes it's right in front of your eyes. HYPE."
