Part One: Bitcoin Miners' Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 - Market Poised for New High?
1. Miner Behavior Shift: From Selling to Holding
According to the latest data from crypto analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner selling pressure indicator (measuring the ratio of miner outflows to reserves in 30 days) has dropped below the lower rail, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the previous "selling to cover operating costs" model to strategic accumulation.
This contrasts sharply with the halving aftermath in 2024 when miner income was halved (daily selling volume increased from 900 to 1,200 Bits), but current market conditions are driving miners to adjust their strategy:
- Profit Expectations Driving Accumulation: With Bit prices recently breaking $100,000 and approaching historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bit to await higher returns rather than short-term cash-out.
- Structural Industry Optimization: Scaled mining development by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) reduces exit risks for inefficient miners, and increased industry concentration alleviates selling pressure.
- Historical Experience: Past cycles showed that over-leveraging and long-term holding by miners led to liquidity crises (like the 2018 bear market), so now they focus more on short-term financial stability.
2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-Chain Data
Alphractal's miner selling pressure indicator shows the current market structure is entirely different from the "panic selling" in early 2024:
- Long-Term Holders Dominate: Currently, over 80% of Bits have been held for more than 6 months, far lower than the short-term holder proportion at historical cycle peaks, providing stable price support.
- Exchange Reserves at New Low: Bit exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating the market is in a "high-speed accumulation period" with selling pressure dispersed by over-the-counter trading or institutional positions.
- Derivatives Market Risk: Despite stable spot market, there are large high-leverage long positions in the $100,000-$110,000 range, which could trigger billions of dollars in liquidations if price fluctuates.
3. Price Trend and Future Expectations
As of May 12, 2025, Bit price is $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1% and over 30% cumulative growth in the past month. Market divergence focuses on subsequent trends:
- Technical Signals: RSI (75) indicates overbought, but MACD continues upward; key support at $10,000 might trigger short-term holder selling if breached.
- Macro Variables: Fed rate cut expectations (if over 100 basis points in 2025) might provide a "Davis double-click" opportunity for Bit, but stagflation risks could weaken its hedging attributes.
- Miner Behavior Dynamics: If price breaks $110,000, miner selling pressure might rise, but current low selling levels suggest the market might enter a "calm growth period".
