Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown strong upward momentum surpassing Bitcoin. This morning (May 11), after Trump announced significant progress in trade talks with China, ETH briefly broke through $2,600, reigniting short-term market optimism. Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index tracked by CMC has recently bottomed out and risen above 40, reaching a 90-day high, sparking heated discussion about whether the "Altcoin Season" is imminent.
Analysts' Divergent Views
Some market observers hold a positive outlook on Altcoins. Analyst Mister Crypto predicts that the market may see a "life-changing" trend in the next three to six months, with Altcoins potentially delivering 40% daily returns becoming the norm.
Technical trader Moustache also pointed out that Altcoins often experience explosive growth after repeated accumulation, believing the current market structure is similar to 2016 and 2020, and declaring that the "2025 Altcoin Season has officially begun".
Cautious Perspective: Market Enthusiasm and Challenges Coexist
However, not all analysts are optimistic. Analyst 2Lambroz, while acknowledging the potential Altcoin season, points out that the market lacks a strong narrative belief. He observes that unlike 2021, there are currently no large numbers of retail investors entering, and traders' fund rotation is faster, lacking long-term holding motivation.
Commentator Rekt Fencer questions the optimistic sentiment, noting that most Altcoins have fallen 90% since last December, and the recent 10% rebound could be overinterpreted. He sarcastically asks, "Is this the Altcoin season we've been waiting for?" He believes Bitcoin's dominance remains above the critical 54% threshold, and institutional preference for Bitcoin may continue to influence fund flows. This market cycle may be more differentiated, with significant performance variations across different Altcoin sectors.
Key Indicators and Macro Variables
Beyond technical analysis, the future of the Altcoin market is influenced by multiple key factors. First, Bitcoin's price and market dominance are crucial. Bitcoin's price rise boosts market sentiment, but changes in its dominance remain key to determining the Altcoin season. Secondly, overall market sentiment and risk appetite are important. Optimistic developments in global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes, such as progress in US-China trade negotiations and easing India-Pakistan tensions, could drive funds into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and meme coins.
Kronos Research CEO Hank Huang stated that the cryptocurrency market is rebounding on the wave of global optimism, with Ethereum's strong rebound driving the Altcoin market. However, key points of observation remain whether funds can effectively rotate from Bitcoin to Altcoins and the degree of retail participation.
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