Odaily星球日报讯 与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货合约在利率决议公布后收复了早些时候的跌幅，当前定价美联储最早在 6 月降息 25 个基点的可能性为 30%，略高于早些时候的 27%。根据期货价格，到 7 月降息的可能性约为 75%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货合约在利率决议公布后收复了早些时候的跌幅，当前定价美联储最早在 6 月降息 25 个基点的可能性为 30%，略高于早些时候的 27%。根据期货价格，到 7 月降息的可能性约为 75%。（金十）

美联储7月降息的可能性约为75%

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate recovered from earlier losses after the rate resolution was announced. Currently, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points as early as June is 30%, slightly higher than the earlier 27%. According to futures prices, the likelihood of a rate cut by July is approximately 75%. (Jinshi)

The probability of a Fed rate cut in July is about 75%.

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Hal Panney, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said in a report that if the Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance on the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months at Wednesday's meeting, the US dollar may not necessarily appreciate. He said that since early April, the euro has strengthened, despite the yield spread between two-year EU and US Treasury bonds moving in a direction favorable to the US. This means that cautious signals about rate cuts may not necessarily boost the US dollar. Hal Panney said that policy uncertainty and strong expectations of a weakening US economy suggest that the US dollar may remain weak or further depreciate. (Jintian)

Opinion: The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts may not necessarily strengthen the dollar

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."

JPMorgan Chase: Two major factors hinder the Fed from starting to cut interest rates, and the final decision often lags behind the economic situation

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise during the European morning session, weighed down by long-term bonds ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement on Wednesday. Tiffany Wilding, an economist at Pimco, said in a report that the latest U.S. employment data is constraining the Federal Reserve, and she expects the Fed will not cut rates before late this year. Rate cuts would only occur if data shows a clear slowdown or contraction in the labor market. (Jinshi)