Author: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total crypto market capitalization is $2.67 trillion, with BTC accounting for 62.95% at $1.68 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $234.4 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.47%, of which USDT accounts for 61.85%.
This week, BTC price has been range-bound, currently at $85,107; ETH is also range-bound, currently at $1,603.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are down with a few rising, including: CORE with a 7-day increase of 29.36%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 23.51%, DEEP with a 7-day increase of 41.51%, and T with a 7-day increase of 36.69%.
This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $13.9 million; the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $32.3 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on April 19 was 32 (lower than last week), with market sentiment: 1 day neutral, 6 days fearful.
Market forecast: This week, the stablecoin market continues to expand, with a small net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF and a net outflow of Ethereum ETF. The US hopes to achieve strong global negotiations by increasing tariffs, and currently predicts limited crypto impact from US tariffs. BTC and ETH prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range this week, with the market gradually recovering. The market remains in a panic sentiment, with the US dollar index falling below 100 and gold prices reaching new highs, indicating a high investment risk-aversion sentiment. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in May is 9.1%, lower than last week. The market is expected to gradually bottom out in April-May, with BTC maintaining an oscillation between $80k-90k.
Current Insights
Weekly Major Events
1. On April 14, Jupiter co-founder meow tweeted that "in the next few months, we will launch numerous products, governance concepts, experimental metadata, thought fragments, and new technical concepts";
2. On April 15, according to Paidun monitoring, the perpetual contract DEX KiloEx was attacked today, losing approximately $7.5 million (330,000 on Base network, $3.1 million on opBNB network, and $1 million on BNB Chain). KiloEx has been urgently suspended;
3. On April 15, OpenSea announced that Solana token trading is now online for some closed beta users on OS2, and will be gradually rolled out to more users in the coming weeks. Currently, tokens are tradable, with NFT trading to be launched later;
4. On April 15, the supply of EURC, the euro stablecoin issued by Circle, reached a historical high, and with increasing US trade tensions and a weakening dollar, demand for euro-denominated digital assets may be boosted;
5. On April 15, Bo Hines, Executive Director of the White House Presidential Digital Assets Working Group, stated that the US might use tariff revenue to purchase Bitcoin;
6. On April 15, ZKsync hackers attacked the airdrop distribution administrator's account, minting 111 million ZK tokens;
7. On April 17, the US Securities and Exchange Commission published details of its third crypto policy roundtable, with the April 25 meeting focusing on custody issues, featuring two panel discussions - one on broker-dealer and wallet custody, and another on investment advisor and investment company custody;
8. On April 16, MANTRA released a statement about the OM price crash, stating that the MANTRA team is currently operating normally and promises to take all necessary measures to address current market volatility. During the OM price crash, the MANTRA team did not sell, and the token allocations for the MANTRA mainnet OM team and advisory team are all locked;
9. On April 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that crypto is gradually becoming mainstream, and establishing a legal framework for stablecoins is a good approach. Stablecoins may have broad appeal and consumer protection measures should be established;
10. On April 16, Raydium launched the token issuance platform LaunchLab for creators, developers, and the community. Tokens are released through the JustSendIt mode, raising 85 SOL, with liquidity immediately migrated to Raydium's AMM. On-chain token creation with no migration fees and no permission censorship;
11. On April 18, according to on-chain data analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Blur, which unlocks monthly, transferred 23.8 million BLUR (approximately $2.3 million) of this month's unlocked tokens to Coinbase Prime an hour ago.
Macroeconomic Insights
1. On April 14, the US SEC postponed a decision on adding staking functionality to Grayscale ETHE;
2. On April 14, Japan's 20-year bond yield rose to 2.435%, the highest since 2004;
3. On April 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed's two targets have not yet conflicted, but the current trend is that unemployment and inflation levels will rise;
4. On April 18, the ECB cut rates by 25BP as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, with the decision unanimously approved;
5. On April 18, US President Trump expressed confidence in reaching a tariff agreement with China. Trump said: "I think we will reach an agreement with China, we will reach an agreement with everyone. If we don't reach an agreement, we'll set a target, and that's how it will be, which is fine. Things should be sorted out in the next three to four weeks";
6. On April 18, according to CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in May is 9.1%, with a 90.9% probability of remaining unchanged.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 14 to April 18, the US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $13.9 million; as of April 18, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $22.736 billion, currently holding $16.152 billion, IBIT (BlackRock) currently holding $48.598 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $96.936 billion.
The US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow was $32.3 million.
Future Outlook
Event Announcements
1. TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025 will be held from April 30 to May 1, 2025 in Dubai;
2. Canada Crypto Week will be held from May 11 to 17, 2025 in Toronto, Canada.
Project Progress
1. Lorentz mainnet upgrade will be launched on opBNB on April 21;
2. Japanese crypto exchange Coinbook has been fully acquired by BACKSEAT Inc. and will be renamed "BACKSEAT Crypto Asset Exchange Co., Ltd." on April 21;
3. DoubleZero's token 2Z sale on CoinList platform ends on April 22;
4. The Hyperlane interoperability protocol airdrop will be conducted on April 22, with 57% of tokens distributed to users, the remaining circulating tokens allocated to the core team (25%), investors (10.9%), and foundation treasury (7.1%).
Important Events
1. Coinbase Derivatives announced that it has submitted an application to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch XRP futures contracts, with an official expected launch date of April 21, 2025.
Token Unlocks
1. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on April 21, valued at approximately $59.53 million, representing 1.03% of circulating supply;
2. Scroll (SCR) will unlock 40 million tokens on April 22, valued at approximately $9.32 million, representing 4% of circulating supply;
3. Coin98 (C98) will unlock 16.53 million tokens on April 23, valued at approximately $920,000, representing 1.65% of circulating supply;
4. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on April 25, valued at approximately $5.32 million, representing 1.95% of circulating supply.
5. Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on April 27, valued at approximately $3.97 million, representing 1.13% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", through in-depth analysis of crypto industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring. Combined with the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing, we provide precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Relying on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
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