Last week, the US stock market experienced volatility and still closed broadly lower, showing the market's fragility under trade tensions. Although some investors believe that the worst of the global trade war may have passed with US President Trump temporarily suspending reciprocal tariffs and seeking agreements with various countries within 90 days, the market still faces multiple challenges this week,
Key Observations for This Week:
US Stock Earnings Season Kicks Off:
Tesla (expected Wednesday morning Taipei time) and Alphabet, Google's parent company (expected Friday morning Taipei time), will be the first to announce earnings, with other heavyweight companies like Boeing, IBM, Intel, P&G, and Merck also set to release their reports. These giants' performance and outlook will directly impact market sentiment and related supply chain performance.
US Trade Negotiations with Japan, South Korea, and India:
Japan: The Finance Minister is expected to conduct a second round of negotiations on the 24th with US officials (Treasury Secretary Bezos, Commerce Secretary Ruttenberg, Trade Representative Lighthizer). Japan may propose expanding purchases of US agricultural products (rice, soybeans) and energy, and relaxing vehicle import inspection regulations, hoping to cancel the 24% reciprocal tariffs and obtain exemptions for steel, aluminum, and automotive tariffs.
South Korea: Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok and Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Duk-geun will meet with US officials from the 24th to 25th in Washington, expected to discuss reducing non-tariff barriers to ensure exemptions for automobiles and semiconductors.
Pence's India Visit: US Vice President Pence will visit India this week, with his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi and the progress of US-India trade negotiations being key points of observation. India is eager to reach an agreement to avoid tariff impacts.
Geopolitical Risks:Russian President Putin originally announced a unilateral Easter ceasefire in the Ukraine war, with all military actions to stop from 6 PM Moscow time Saturday until midnight Sunday. However,both sides continue to accuse each other of launching attacks, with the conflict ongoing.
Bitcoin Breaks $87,000
Returning to the cryptocurrency market, after narrowly oscillating between $84,000-$85,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin suddenly broke through last week's resistance level after 8 AM today, reaching a high of $87,280, creating a new high since early April.
As the market is currently in a low liquidity period with no particularly positive news, this may be a short-term rapid rise driven by short sellers' liquidation, and whether it can continue to strengthen remains to be seen.
According to Coinglass data, network liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $220 million, with over 120,000 people being cleared.
Among the top ten cryptocurrencies, Ethereum also broke through $1,600, XRP returned to $2... SOL performed best over the past seven days, rising 7.55%.
