1. Introduction
In April 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced a round of significant fluctuations. After a correction from the highs at the end of the first quarter, affected by the US tariff policy, the price of Bitcoin once fell below $75,000, triggering market panic. However, it is worth noting that whales continue to buy BTC in large quantities at low prices, and there are no signs of large-scale selling as in previous bear markets. At the same time, traditional financial institutions are also accelerating their embrace of Bitcoin, and many institutions are either increasing their holdings or allocating BTC for the first time.
This article will sort out the situation of large on-chain investors and traditional financial institutions increasing their holdings of BTC, combine the linkage between on-chain capital flows and BTC price trends to determine whether this round has bottomed out, and analyze the impact of the macroeconomic environment and policies on market sentiment and capital flows, so as to deeply analyze multiple on-chain indicators to judge market trends.
2. Whale Address Funds Flow
Since March, Bitcoin whale addresses have shown obvious bargain hunting characteristics. Whales are taking advantage of this pullback to increase their holdings. Bitcoin is being transferred from exchanges and retail investors to whale wallets. The following figure is a comparison of the total balance changes of large holders (purple line) holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC and the Bitcoin price (black line) from 2024 to 2025. It can be seen that the total balance of whales increased significantly from March to April as the price fell, indicating that whales are increasing their holdings.
Source: https://www.mitrade.com/
Data provided by CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy shows that whale wallets increased their holdings by more than 100,000 BTC during this period. Even when overall network activity was relatively sluggish and retail investors were on the sidelines, whales continued to buy in a planned manner. This trend caused the total holdings of whales (large holders holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) to climb to more than 3.35 million BTC, a new high. The contrarian increase in whale holdings is usually seen as a signal of a potential bottom in the market.
In terms of specific fund flows, on-chain transaction tracking accounts such as Whale Alert and Lookonchain have repeatedly captured large transfers and balance changes of whales in April. On April 11, more than $2.4 billion of BTC was withdrawn from the US exchange Kraken, indicating that large investors are withdrawing their chips from exchanges in a concentrated manner and tend to self-custody for long-term holding. Another whale behavior is "large-scale new wallet absorption". In late March, a billionaire-level Bitcoin whale bought 3,238 BTC in 24 hours, worth about $280 million, with an average purchase price of $86,500. In fact, in the past month, there have been many large-scale BTC transfers to cold wallets on the chain, with a total of more than 50,000 BTC withdrawn and stored offline by large investors, indicating that the main force is hoarding coins at low prices.
In general, the flow of funds in whale addresses in April showed a "net inflow hoarding" pattern: a large amount of BTC flowed out of exchanges and flowed into long-term holding wallets; the overall holdings of whales increased, and there was almost no sign that whales were panic selling. On the contrary, whales chose to increase their holdings rather than reduce their holdings during the current round of price corrections of about 30%, which is considered to be a reflection of their confidence that the current adjustment is only a temporary retracement rather than a trend reversal.
3. Institutional Funding Trends
As Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold and an inflation hedging tool, more and more traditional institutions are joining the ranks of Bitcoin holders. According to data from the BitcoinTreasuries website, according to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 80 companies holding Bitcoin.
Source: https://treasuries.bitbo.io/
1. Asset management funds
At the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin-related products of many Wall Street giants were launched one after another. The Bitcoin spot ETF launched by BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, at the end of 2024 received a warm response from the market, and its fund continued to receive net subscriptions after entering 2025. According to reports, BlackRock not only has a layout on Bitcoin, but has even begun to get involved in assets such as Ethereum recently: On April 10, BlackRock bought 4,126 ETH through its Ethereum spot ETF, worth about $6.4 million. On April 15, BlackRock increased its holdings of 431.823 BTC through its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT, worth $37.07 million, and currently holds a total of 571,869 BTC.
In addition to BlackRock, financial giants such as Fidelity and JPMorgan have also reportedly increased their holdings of Bitcoin or related derivatives. Fidelity launched Bitcoin spot trading and custody services as early as 2024, and its client funds have a trend of newly allocating BTC in Q1 2025. In addition, institutional investors such as Grayscale continue to hold a large amount of Bitcoin through trusts and other products, and the discount rate of its flagship product GBTC narrowed significantly in April, reflecting rising institutional demand.
2. Listed companies and enterprises
As the listed company with the largest number of bitcoins in the world, Strategy continues to raise funds to purchase Bitcoin by issuing stocks and bonds. According to the latest disclosed data, Strategy purchased 3,459 bitcoins between April 7 and April 13, with an average price of $82,618, totaling $285.8 million. As of April 17, Strategy held a total of 531,644 bitcoins, with an average price of approximately $67,556.
In addition, some companies are also increasing their allocation of Bitcoin in their financial reserves. According to a report by a consulting agency, more and more companies are viewing Bitcoin as a reserve asset on their balance sheets to combat economic uncertainty. For example, companies such as Tesla and Block (formerly Square) have already purchased Bitcoin. As of now, although Tesla has not purchased any more since 2022 and still holds about 10,000 BTC, it has not further reduced its holdings. Traditional industry companies such as the Norwegian energy company Aker have also already allocated some Bitcoin as strategic reserves, indicating that traditional fields are more open to embracing Bitcoin.
In general, traditional institutional funds are/have already been heavily involved in the Bitcoin market: from Wall Street asset management giants to listed companies and various investment funds, BTC is being included in the asset portfolios of more and more institutions, whether for risk aversion, speculation or strategic reserve purposes. This force provides solid buying support for the market and is also an important driving force behind this round of whale holdings.
4. The linkage between BTC price trend and on-chain capital flow
In the past few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has experienced dramatic fluctuations: after hitting a record high of $109,000 in January, it experienced a deep correction of about 30% due to profit-taking and the US tariff policy, and once fell below $75,000. As of April 17, the price rebounded and stabilized in the $83,000-$85,000 range.
Correction phase (January high to March low) : Bitcoin fell from a high of $109K to around $75K at the end of the first quarter, a drop of about 30%. On-chain data shows that during the rapid price drop, there was a net inflow in the exchange (retail investors panicked and deposited BTC to the exchange in search of selling and cashing out), while at the same time, the wallet balance of whales increased (they bought and withdrew BTC from the exchange). Specifically, the BTC balance of the exchange began to decline in mid-March, indicating a net outflow; while stablecoins showed a net inflow into the exchange, indicating that funds were withdrawn from the falling price of the currency and converted to stablecoins for hedging and waiting. In general, panic was strong at the time, and the greed/fear index of the crypto market in early April was only 19 (extreme fear). This extreme fear often also indicates that the selling pressure is coming to an end.
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/FearGreedIndex
Bottom-building and rebounding stage (early April to present) : After falling below $75K, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to above $80K and fluctuated sideways. At this time, the characteristics of on-chain capital flow are: net outflow from exchanges (investors withdraw coins from exchanges), and a large amount of stablecoins flow into exchanges (indicating that funds are ready to enter the market to buy coins). CryptoQuant's monitoring shows that the net inflow of stablecoins in exchanges across the entire network reached more than a billion US dollars in early April, setting a peak since July 2023. This means that in this price range, a large amount of funds entered the market, converted into stablecoins such as USDT and recharged to exchanges, waiting for opportunities to buy the dips crypto assets such as Bitcoin. In fact, the total supply of stablecoins increased by about $30 billion in the first quarter of 2025, and the total market value returned to more than $230 billion. Tether also issued additional shares several times in April, which provided "ammunition" for the market. With the return of funds, the price of Bitcoin stopped falling and stabilized, repeatedly testing the support and resistance areas above $80K.
The interaction between on-chain data and prices further confirms that large investors are increasing their holdings to build a bottom. About 63% of Bitcoin has not moved on the chain for more than a year , reaching one of the highest levels in history, indicating that most of the chips are locked by firm holders. The phenomena of whales' massive purchases and concentrated holdings, the decline in exchange supply, and panic selling are all consistent with the bottom characteristics of past cycles. As long as the macro environment does not show unexpected negative news, BTC is expected to regain its upward trend and enter a new round of upward cycle.
V. Impact of the Macro Environment and Policies
The linkage between the crypto market and the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly obvious. In April, the flow of funds from whales and institutions, in addition to responding to price technicals, was also deeply affected by macro policies and market sentiment.
1. Federal Reserve interest rate policy and liquidity expectations
The Fed's monetary policy directly affects the global liquidity environment, which indirectly affects the flow of funds for risky assets such as Bitcoin. The Fed's sharp interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022-2023 put pressure on the crypto market. But the situation changed at the end of 2024: the Fed began to cut interest rates at its last meeting in 2024, and then kept its interest rate unchanged for two consecutive times in early 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%. At the FOMC meeting on March 19, Powell announced that there would be no interest rate hikes for the time being, while lowering economic growth expectations and raising inflation forecasts, expressing an increase in uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Fed's dot plot shows that two interest rate cuts are expected in 2025, and interest rates will fall to about 3.9% by the end of 2025. In addition, the Fed announced that it would slow down the process of balance sheet reduction from April, which actually injected a signal of easing into the market.
These policy shifts are good for the crypto market: the peak and decline in interest rates means an improvement in the liquidity environment, which increases investors' risk appetite for the future. The market is more concerned about the Fed's potential interest rate cut cycle: many institutions (such as JPMorgan Chase) predict that if the downward pressure on the economy increases, the Fed may even "sharply cut interest rates" in the second half of 2025. The expectation of interest rate cuts has stimulated investors' imagination of liquidity-driven market conditions. Some believe that the Fed's dovish stance may repeat the script after the massive money release in 2020, bringing about a new round of bull market. In general, the Fed's policy shift provides a favorable macro background for this round of bottoming out, but short-term noise will still cause short-term disturbances in capital flows.
2. Global economic and geopolitical factors: trade policy, recession expectations, etc.
Another recent macro factor is the change in the trade environment. After Trump returned to the White House, he took a tough stance on tariffs. In early April, the Trump administration unexpectedly announced large-scale tariffs on foreign countries, which caused a surge in risk aversion in the market and triggered tensions in the financial market. However, after a few days of shock, the White House introduced a 90-day tariff suspension to leave room for negotiations. This erratic policy has caused large fluctuations in traditional markets, and the crypto market has also been affected. Bitcoin has shown a certain risk-averse attribute in this incident: as trade frictions heat up and global stock markets fall, whales instead regard Bitcoin as a value storage carrier and accelerate their purchases. This "risk hedging" behavior reflects the change in investor mentality - more and more people regard BTC as an asset to hedge against macro turmoil, rather than a purely risky speculative product.
Recession expectations are also an important macro issue at present. The IMF recently lowered its global growth forecast, and most economies showed signs of slowing down in a high-interest rate environment. In the United States, the long-term and short-term bond yields continue to invert, increasing the possibility of a recession in 2025-2026. For the crypto market, a mild recession is not necessarily a bad thing: because the central bank is likely to hedge through interest rate cuts and possible quantitative easing, which is beneficial to liquidity-sensitive Bitcoin. However, if there is a serious economic crisis or financial systemic risk, it may lead to a liquidity run in the short term, and investors will sell all assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the Silicon Valley Bank incident in early 2023 reappears, or European banks have problems, it may impact investor confidence and trigger a large-scale sell-off on the chain.
3. Policy and regulatory environment
In the first half of 2025, crypto regulation showed two sides: on the one hand, the US SEC's review of Altcoin and exchanges was still strict, and on the other hand, policies on Bitcoin-related ETFs, institutional reports, etc. became more friendly. For example, after the US SEC approved the first Bitcoin spot ETF at the end of 2024, several similar products were lined up for listing in 2025, which provided a convenient channel for traditional funds to enter the market. As a result, Bitcoin has gained more favor from institutional investors, and the increase in ETF shares is equivalent to an increase in indirect holdings on the chain. Europe has also implemented the MiCA regulations. After clarifying the framework, some compliant asset management began to allocate Bitcoin.
At the national level, on March 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve", which reserves approximately 200,000 existing confiscated Bitcoins as reserve assets and authorizes the Departments of Treasury and Commerce to develop budget-neutral strategies to acquire more Bitcoin. El Salvador is the first country in the world to use Bitcoin as legal tender, a policy implemented since September 2021, and actively purchases Bitcoin through the leadership of President Nayib Bukele. The government has implemented a "buy 1 BTC per day" program, continuously increasing its holdings regardless of market prices. According to a March 2025 report, El Salvador holds approximately 5,800 BTC. Bhutan holds Bitcoin through its government-owned Druk Holding & Investments fund, approximately 13,029 BTC as of February 2025.
Overall, the current easing policy environment is favorable. The promotion of digital currencies by central banks of various countries and the relaxation of institutional entry permissions are all beneficial to the long-term value proposition of Bitcoin.
VI. Conclusion and Outlook
First, the flow of funds on the chain, whether it is whales, large institutions, or small and medium-sized investors, shows typical bottom characteristics: the chips are transferred from short-term speculators to long-term value investors. Traditional financial institutions are also adjusting their layouts, and Bitcoin is being integrated into a wider institutional asset portfolio. The continued increase in positions by BlackRock and Strategy shows that institutions and companies are optimistic about the long-term value of BTC.
Secondly, the linkage between price trend and on-chain indicators verified the bottoming judgment: Bitcoin was strongly supported in the $74K-$75K area, and multiple indicators showed that an important "value consensus" was generated at this price. The price then rebounded above $80K and went sideways. This period was the process of digesting the previous selling pressure and changing hands to consolidate the bottom. The on-chain activity rebounded moderately and was not overheated, indicating that market participants gradually returned but were rational and cautious. Over time, the market is expected to complete energy accumulation in high-level consolidation and start a new round of gains.
The macro environment provides a "favorable wind" for the bottom to form. The Fed has suspended interest rate hikes and is expected to cut interest rates, and the Trump administration has suspended tariffs. These positive factors have eased the systemic risks of the market. Global liquidity is expected to be loosened again, and market sentiment has rebounded from extreme fear and is currently in a neutral and slightly cautious state. Historical experience shows that extreme fear is often followed by a period of incubation for a turnaround.
However, we still need to pay attention to several potential variables. First, if there is a new macro shock (such as escalation of geopolitical conflicts, financial crises in large economies, etc.), it may interrupt the bottoming process and cause further declines. Second, the technical trend needs to be confirmed: only when the Bitcoin daily line effectively breaks through the 200-day moving average and continuously stands above the key resistance, can the bottom be fully confirmed. Before that, the possibility of range-bound tug-of-war cannot be ruled out. Third, it is necessary to continue to follow up on-chain indicators: if abnormal situations such as whales starting to turn around and reduce their holdings and exchanges suddenly increase BTC are found, we should be vigilant in time.
In short, all signs indicate that Bitcoin has basically completed this round of bottoming process in April 2025. The market is in a transition period from panic to rebuilding confidence. At the same time, macro and internal market conditions are gradually improving. It is expected to restart the upward trend in the near future and move towards a new high.
about Us
As the core investment and research center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend analysis + value mining + real-time tracking". Through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24-hour market volatility monitoring, combined with the weekly "Hotcoin Selection" strategy live broadcast and "Blockchain Today's Headlines" daily news delivery, we provide investors at different levels with accurate market interpretation and practical strategies. Relying on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continue to empower novice investors to establish a cognitive framework, help professional institutions capture alpha returns, and jointly seize value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
Mail: labs@hotcoin.com
