Odaily星球日报讯 加密分析师 Scott Melker 在 X 平台发文表示，比特币已经突破了持续数月的下跌楔形形态，预示着潜在的看涨逆转，88,800 美元区间或是扭转市场结构的关键阻力位，若无法击穿多头或将无法继续保持强劲势头。 此外，比特币巨鲸仍处于强劲积累区域，当前持有 100-1000 枚以上比特币的大额持有者（鲸鱼和鲨鱼）正在快速吸收比特币，当前该群体的吸收量已超过比特币年发行量的 300%。与此同时，交易所的比特币持币量持续下降，年吸收率（Yearly Absorption Rates）已降至-200%，显示出投资者更倾向于长期持有或自我托管。（注：年吸收率为交易所比特币余额与同期比特币挖矿产出数量的比较）

Odaily星球日报讯 加密分析师 Scott Melker 在 X 平台发文表示，比特币已经突破了持续数月的下跌楔形形态，预示着潜在的看涨逆转，88,800 美元区间或是扭转市场结构的关键阻力位，若无法击穿多头或将无法继续保持强劲势头。此外，比特币巨鲸仍处于强劲积累区域，当前持有 100-1000 枚以上比特币的大额持有者（鲸鱼和鲨鱼）正在快速吸收比特币，当前该群体的吸收量已超过比特币年发行量的 300%。与此同时，交易所的比特币持币量持续下降，年吸收率（Yearly Absorption Rates）已降至-200%，显示出投资者更倾向于长期持有或自我托管。（注：年吸收率为交易所比特币余额与同期比特币挖矿产出数量的比较）

比特币巨鲸仍处于强劲积累区域，下跌楔形形态突破预示潜在看涨逆转

<Odaily> news: Crypto analyst Scott Melker stated on X platform that Bitcoin has broken through the descending wedge pattern that has persisted for months, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. The $88,800 range may be a key resistance level to transform market structure, and if bulls cannot break through, they may not maintain their strong momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin whales are still in a strong accumulation zone, with current large holders (whales and sharks) possessing 100-1000 or more bitcoins rapidly absorbing bitcoin. The current absorption by this group has exceeded 300% of Bitcoin's annual issuance. Simultaneously, Bitcoin holdings on exchanges continue to decline, with yearly absorption rates dropping to -200%, indicating that investors are more inclined to hold long-term or self-custody. (Note: Yearly absorption rate is a comparison between exchange Bitcoin balance and bitcoin mining output during the same period)

<Odaily> Planet News: Crypto analyst Scott Melker stated on X platform that Bitcoin has broken through the descending wedge pattern that has persisted for months, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. The $88,800 range may be a key resistance level to overturn market structure, and if bulls cannot break through, they may not maintain their strong momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin whales remain in a strong accumulation zone, with large holders (whales and sharks) currently owning 100-1000+ bitcoins rapidly absorbing bitcoin, with their current absorption exceeding 300% of Bitcoin's annual issuance. Simultaneously, Bitcoin holdings on exchanges continue to decline, with yearly absorption rates dropping to -200%, indicating investors prefer long-term holding or self-custody. (Note: Yearly absorption rate compares exchange Bitcoin balance with Bitcoin mining output during the same period)

Bitcoin whale remain in strong accumulation zone, falling wedge pattern breakout signals potential bullish reversal

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: The market generally believes that any bearish trend caused by the Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rates has already been reflected in Bitcoin's price. Onchain analyst James Check points out that Bitcoin's true bottom is located at its real market average, which is the average cost basis of active investors - approximately $65,000. Bears will attempt to defend the resistance level at $86,000, which increases the possibility of the price breaking below $80,000 and creating a new low. James Check added: "The area around $75,000 is where Bitcoin bulls are currently defending, and if they fail to defend successfully, the next step will be to return to the liquidation consolidation zone to see how far it can ultimately go." (Cointelegraph)

Analyst: $75,000 may be the current defense area for Bitcoin bulls

<Odaily> News: Data shows that Bitcoin's Realized Market Cap has reached $87.2 billion, hitting a new historical high. However, glassnode data indicates that investors' enthusiasm for the current Bitcoin price level remains insufficient. Despite the realized market cap reaching a new high, the monthly growth rate has dropped to 0.9%, suggesting a "risk-averse" market sentiment. 

The realized market cap measures the total value of all Bitcoin calculated at their last transfer price, reflecting the actual invested capital scale and can be used to observe Bitcoin's economic activity. Its slowing growth indicates that capital inflow remains positive but has significantly decreased, suggesting a decline in new investors or reduced activity among existing holders.

Additionally, glassnode's Realized Profit and Loss chart recently experienced a significant 40% drop, indicating widespread profit-taking or stop-loss behaviors in the market. The ratio of market value to realized value for short-term Bitcoin holders remains below 1, a level historically associated with buying opportunities, further confirming that short-term holders are in a loss position. (Cointelegraph)

Bitcoin reaches new high in market value, but short-term Bitcoin holders are still losing money, and risk aversion dominates the market

Coinbase Research Institute released a bearish report. In this report, the Coinbase research team conducted an in-depth analysis of whether the cryptocurrency market has entered a bear market. The original report link is in the internal reference. Here, we will discuss some of the report's perspectives.

The report points out that Bitcoin and the COIN50 index have recently fallen below the 200-day moving average, a technical indicator typically viewed as a signal of a long-term trend change. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, has dropped 41% from its peak of $1.6 trillion in December 2024...