Fidelity says the current Bitcoin cycle is maturing — a new wave could be coming next.

The history of Bitcoin's development reveals clear patterns that analysts often use to predict future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, published a new analysis based on Bitcoin's wave development pattern.

Experts remain optimistic about next year, but they also exercise caution in their assessments.

How strong will Bitcoin's sixth wave of growth be?

In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer highlighted that Bitcoin's wave development pattern shows that each new growth cycle is smaller in scale but lasts longer.

Based on historical data from 2010, Timmer suggests that Bitcoin is currently in its fifth wave. This cycle began at the 2022 Dip of $16,603 and is expected to peak around $151,360.

“It’s difficult to tell at this very moment whether a new ‘winter’ is on the horizon. But the increasingly clear wave structure of the maturing network suggests that the most recent bull market (since around $16,000 in 2022) appears to be in a fairly mature stage,” Jurrien Timmer Chia .

In the short term, he remains quite optimistic about Bitcoin's performance by the end of the year. Investor sentiment has improved thanks to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) loose monetary policy .

In the long term, he predicts a potential sixth wave of growth. This model uses linear extrapolation based on data from the previous five waves.

According to this model, the descending Slope chart of Bitcoin (pink) shows:

• Wave 4: The price of BTC increased 20-fold in 153 weeks from Dip to top.
• Wave 5 (current): BTC could increase 9 times in about 160 weeks.
• Wave 6 (coming soon): BTC is expected to increase approximately 5 times within 168 weeks.

However, this model has not yet precisely identified which Dip will begin the sixth wave. Timmer suggests that potential support could be the current Dip around $80,554 for this cycle.

These predictions imply a potentially positive start to 2026, as Bitcoin has yet to complete its fifth wave.

Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder of Axis, shared a similar view when speaking with BeInCrypto. He expects the effects of the Fed's interest rate cut to become apparent soon.

“We lean toward the possibility of the market moving sideways and undergoing a minor correction rather than an immediate V-shaped bounce. The market needs more time to absorb the recent volatility. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive for Q1 2026 as interest rate cuts gradually impact global liquidation and large institutional investors restructure their portfolios in January,” Jimmy Xue Chia with BeInCrypto.

However, some other opinions are more cautious. 2026 is the year of the US midterm elections. History shows that Bitcoin often performs poorly in these years, with price drops potentially ranging from 60% to 75%.

These opposing analyses predict that 2026 will be a challenging year for investors, especially large institutional investors. Over the past two years, they have been actively accumulating BTC since the Bitcoin ETF was approved.