Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, is preparing to launch a prediction market and Tokenize stocks, while Gemini has received regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed an industry alliance. Changpeng Zhao is aiming for 220 million users through the BNB Chain. The battle for dominance in the predicted $15 billion market has officially begun among the giants.
Coinbase reveals key move in its “everything app” strategy.
Coinbase is expected to officially announce the launch of its prediction market and Tokenize stock services at a demonstration event on December 17th. These Tokenize stocks will be developed by Coinbase itself, not through an external partner.
Coinbase leaders have previously expressed their intention to enter this field but have never officially announced it. However, expectations have been high as leaked images of the new feature began circulating on social media platforms like X in the past few weeks. A Coinbase representative declined to Chia details, only saying, "Tune in to the livestream on December 17th to see what new products Coinbase is launching."
This move is part of Coinbase's strategy to develop into a " super app ," aiming to provide traders with access to a wider range of assets and markets, while catching up with competitors that are diversifying their product offerings. Robinhood introduced its Kalshi prediction market product earlier this year, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer Tokenize stocks and ETFs to customers outside the U.S.
Tokenize stock trading activity is growing rapidly. According to data from rwa.xyz, monthly volume has increased by 32% in the last 30 days, reaching $1.45 billion.
CPM Industry Alliance Launched: “We Need a Unified Voice”
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the formation of the Prediction Market Alliance (CPM) – a national alliance for prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and the sports betting platform Underdog are also founding members.
Matt David, a member of the CPM Board of Directors, emphasized: “The U.S. is the biggest potential market for the forecasting market, and with the current dynamics, a unified industry voice is not just important, but absolutely essential.”
The alliance will focus on building a federal legal framework for the prediction market, setting standards for transparency, preventing insider trading, and opposing "overbearing" regulations from state governments.
Sara Slane, head of business development at Kalshi and a member of the alliance, said: “We’ve spent years working with the CFTC because the prediction market needs to be regulated by standards, with strong federal protection to prevent insider trading, protect retail investors, and ensure a transparent, non-corrupt market.” The alliance Chia that many other companies are still in negotiations to join.
Gemini shares surge 28% after CFTC approval.
The Winklevoss twins' Gemini trading platform has also officially entered the prediction market. Gemini Space Station Inc. has received a license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a Derivative trading platform.
This license allows Gemini to offer event-based contract trading services to US clients directly on its website and mobile app. In its IPO filings, Gemini also listed a prediction market related to “economic, financial, political, and sporting forecasts” as a potential product category.
Gemini stated that it would “XEM adding Derivative products such as Futures Contract, options, and perpetual contracts related to crypto for U.S. customers.” Following the news of receiving the license, Gemini 's stock surged by 28% in after-hours trading.
This approval is one of the latest moves by the agency under Acting Chair Caroline Pham, a staunch supporter of the digital asset sector and a driving force behind significant advancements in enabling crypto trading on CFTC-regulated platforms. Ms. Pham also stated that CEO Tyler Winklevoss will join the CFTC Innovation Board alongside other prominent figures such as Shayne Coplan (Polymarket), Terry Duffy (Chairman and CEO of CME Group), and Tarek Mansour (co-founder of Kalshi).
CZ enters the spotlight of the prediction market.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also expanding his influence in the prediction market . On December 4th, CZ Chia on X about a new prediction market platform launching on the BNB Chain. The unique feature is that users' funds will earn interest while waiting for the betting results. This platform is backed by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in assets and has invested in more than 300 projects globally.
Just one day earlier, Trust Wallet – a wallet owned by CZ – launched its Predictions feature. Myriad, a Web3-based prediction market protocol, joined as the first integration partner, allowing users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends directly within the app. Trust Wallet now has 220 million users.
BNB Chain completed its integration with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs – another prediction market provider supported by YZiLabs – also launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs received millions of dollars in investment at Binance Blockchain Week. They completed a $5 million Capital round in Q1 2025 led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media joins the battle with Truth Predict.
Trump Media & Technology Group – the social media company of former US President Donald Trump – is also involved in the prediction market. The company plans to launch “ Truth Prediction ” on its social media platform Truth Social, allowing users to bet on events ranging from political elections to inflation fluctuations.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to process transactions and offer bets on commodity prices and events across all major sporting events. Initial testing will be conducted in the near future before a full rollout in the US, followed by global expansion.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and former Republican congressman, Chia : “For a long time, these markets have been tightly controlled by global elites. With Truth Prediction, we are bringing democracy into information, enabling ordinary Americans to leverage collective intelligence.”
The race for the $15 billion throne.
The prediction market has exploded since a federal court overturned a ban on election betting last year. Weekly nominal volume on Polymarket and Kalshi have now surpassed the peaks set during last year's US presidential election, consistently setting new records.
Investor interest has surged. Kalshi's valuation has more than doubled following its recent Capital round, reaching $11 billion. There are reports that Polymarket is also seeking to raise Capital with a potential valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial exchanges such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are also exploring ways to enter this market. Monthly trading volume of Tokenize shares has increased by 32% in the past 30 days, reaching $1.45 billion.
However, regulatory uncertainty remains a major obstacle. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October against the New York State Gaming Commission, alleging that the agency overstepped its authority in attempting to regulate sports betting, which Capital under federal jurisdiction. Sports betting remains banned in nearly a dozen US states, and the number of lawsuits challenging the legality of the betting market is expected to increase.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ's BNB Chain, and a newly formed industry alliance — the race among the giants for the $15 billion crown has only just begun.
