Despite increasing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin upward cycle is not over.
Indicators tracking investor behavior show that BTC still has significant upside potential in this cycle. This analysis explores the method.
Whales Gathering, Retail Investors Leaving
According to a recent report by anonymous analyst IT Tech from the crypto on-chain platform Crypto.com, BTC large holders — typically whales, institutions, and funds — have steadily increased coin accumulation over the past year. This shows a stark contrast with retail investors who continue to reduce their holdings.
IT Tech noted that the number of coins held by retail investors (wallets holding less than 1 BTC) has decreased over the past year. These wallets currently hold 1.69 million BTC, which is a decrease of 54,500 BTC compared to the previous year, with approximately 220 BTC flowing out daily.
In contrast, large holders with over 1,000 BTC are aggressively accumulating coins. This investor group currently controls 16.57 million BTC, an increase of 507,700 BTC over the past year.
Their average daily inflow is 1,460 BTC, emphasizing institutional investor demand despite recent price issues. Additionally, this group shows a strong positive correlation of +0.86 with BTC price, suggesting institutional accumulation is reinforced with price increases.
Moreover, the report noted that the current BTC cycle lacks retail investor-driven FOMO. While previous peak cycles saw retail investors flooding the market, the current cycle shows continued selling pressure from these small holders. IT Tech mentioned that this means "the bull market still has potential".
Will It Break Through $109,000 Resistance?
After the Monday Israel-Iran ceasefire announcement, BTC price has shown a gradual upward trend. Trading at $107,698 at the time of reporting, it has risen 2% since the news.
The rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) also confirms buying pressure supporting this rally. At the time of writing, the RSI is at 57.15, indicating steady increasing demand for the king of coins.
The RSI indicator measures overbought and oversold market conditions for an asset. It ranges from 0 to 100. Values above 70 indicate an overbought asset with expected price decline, while values below 30 suggest an oversold asset that may rebound.
With the RSI at 57.15 and rising, increasing BTC demand could push the price above the $109,267 resistance line, potentially moving towards the all-time high of $111,968.
However, if demand weakens, BTC price could retreat to $106,295. Failing to maintain this support line could lead to a further drop to $103,952.
