The enthusiasm of U.S. investors for Bitcoin (BTC) shows no signs of cooling down. The Coinbase Premium Index has recorded its second-highest level this year, confirming this interest through numerical data. When BTC is traded at a relatively higher price on Coinbase compared to Binance, the index shows a positive value, generally indicating demand superiority within the U.S. In recent weeks, the index has mostly maintained the 'green zone', reflecting consistent buying pressure from U.S. investors.
This supply flow aligns with capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since June, there has been continuous net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, and one statistical analysis measured the correlation coefficient between ETF inflows and the next day's BTC price at 0.27. This suggests that capital inflows from the previous day have a positive impact on Bitcoin's price the next day. The market interprets this as an 'optimistic bet' by U.S. institutional and individual investors.
Meanwhile, individual investor activity on Binance has become notably active. There has been a surge in deposit transactions of 0-1 BTC scale, which is analyzed as funds movement for profit-taking or short-term trading. In fact, the proportion of small-scale inflows on Binance has reached a two-year high, once again proving the presence of retail participants.
The background of Bitcoin's recent surge to $105,000 (approximately 1.46 billion won) is somewhat complex within this investment trend. It is interpreted not as short-term FOMO, but as a technical movement due to short position liquidation. In other words, investors who had bet on a decline are triggering the surge by settling their positions and accepting losses.
While U.S. spot ETF inflows and retail buying fervor are acting as key drivers of Bitcoin's rise, it remains necessary to observe whether this will lead to a structural bullish reversal. This is because external variables such as the possibility of Trump's re-election and potential changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy can significantly influence BTC's future trajectory.
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