Bitcoin is maintaining the $100,000 range while reducing its correction from the peak. In the price visit frequency heatmap, the 106,200-107,700 dollar supply concentration zone is emerging as a turning point for short to medium-term trends.
Drawdown from ATH
As of June 26, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $107,849, up 1.34% from the previous day.
The decline from the all-time high of $111,891 recorded on May 22 has somewhat narrowed, with the current correction rate at -3.61%, recovering about 2.62 percentage points from the previous week's -6.23%.
While maintaining the $100,000 range, buying sentiment is slightly recovering. This is interpreted as a result of some perception of excessive short-term decline and inflow of bottom-fishing.
The trend of a mild correction could stimulate short-term rebound expectations, but the recovery of momentum for breaking the previous high depends on market liquidity and confirmation of medium-term trend line support.
Days After Halving
Currently, 433 days after the fourth Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, Bitcoin has risen approximately 68.91% from the price of $63,850 at that time. The upward trend has been reflected with a 4.58 percentage point increase from the previous week's 64.33%.
Looking at historical cycles, the bull market typically begins in earnest around 6 months after the halving, with the peak usually reached within 12-18 months. Currently, it is located in the middle of this period, with technical trend confirmation and supply adjustment occurring simultaneously.
If this cycle follows a similar pattern, the next all-time high is expected around October 21, 2025, approximately 117 days from now. The subsequent cycle low is predicted for October 2026, about 482 days later, with the next halving anticipated in March 2027, 986 days from now.
Low-to-Low Comparison
Bitcoin has risen approximately 584% from the cycle low of $15,770 recorded on November 21, 2022, with 949 days having passed since then.
Considering the average cycle low-to-low period of about 1,430 days for Bitcoin, the current point is about 66% through the entire cycle. This period typically overlaps with a slowdown in the upward trend and fluctuations near the peak.
The recent market is showing a mix of sideways movement and short-term adjustments rather than strong increases. If the cycle end is predicted around October 21, 2026 (about 482 days from now), the subsequent period is expected to be characterized by gradual peak formation and market balance adjustment.
Price Visit Frequency Heatmap
The settlement density on the heatmap is most prominent in the 106,200-107,700 dollar range, with 104,400-105,500 dollars forming a supplementary support band. After last week's sharp decline, it quickly rebounded above this dual-structure support line, proving the effectiveness of supply.
The 1-month heatmap shows high settlement frequency distributed across the entire 104,000-109,600 dollar range. This suggests the market recognizes this area as a core medium-term accumulation zone, beyond simple technical support and resistance.
Particularly, the 106,200-107,700 dollar range can be interpreted as a consolidation zone relative to the previous high (around $110,000), a preparation phase before 'resuming exploration'. In contrast, the area above $110,000 is an unexplored resistance zone with almost no settlement history.
The 1-week heatmap shows the most concentrated settlement frequency in the 104,400-106,200 dollar range. This area is the point of supply recovery where a strong rebound formed after a short-term sharp decline.
If this support line is maintained, attempts to break the upper supply zone may continue. Conversely, if breached, short-term adjustment pressure could increase to around $102,200. Currently, this range functions as a short-term supply balance line and could be a turning point for maintaining the medium-term upward trend.
The 24-hour heatmap shows concentration in the 106,600-107,350 dollar range. In the short term, supply digestion and liquidity redistribution are actively occurring in this zone, with the upward movement stalling at the 107,700 dollar resistance.
Today's trend is focused on maintaining supply balance, with the potential breakthrough or breakdown potentially becoming a turning point for the short-term market. Bitcoin has reached a short-term inflection point, and the exit from this convergence phase could serve as a trend reversal signal.
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