Author: Top.one
In the thunderous sounds of geopolitical conflict, the crisp crack of Bitcoin breaking below $100,000 unveiled the brutal pressure test for listed companies' "crypto strategies".
The gunpowder smoke above the Middle East quickly spread to global financial markets. On June 22, the United States launched a direct military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran threatening to close the Hormuz Strait - a key passage transporting 20% of global oil. As soon as the news broke, Bitcoin plummeted over 5% within 24 hours, falling sharply from its high of $103,524 and briefly dropping below the critical psychological level of $99,000.
Market bloodbath: Within 24 hours, over 220,000 positions were liquidated, with liquidation amounts reaching $486 million, nearly 90% of which were long positions betting on price increases. Ethereum, SOL, and other mainstream cryptocurrencies simultaneously experienced deep declines, and the "digital gold" lost its safe-haven halo under real war threats.
This sudden storm pushed two completely different camps in the US stock market - the radical faction with Bitcoin as the "new treasury" and the conservative observers - into a brutal pressure test.
01 Radicals' Dilemma: Bitcoin Hoarding Companies' Market Value Defense Battle
When Bitcoin's price plummeted like a roller coaster, Strategy's shareholders held their breath. The company has deeply tied its corporate fate to Bitcoin - holding an astonishing 590,000 BTC, nearly 3% of the total circulating supply.
Just before the storm, Strategy continued buying 245 Bitcoins at an average price of $105,856 for the 11th consecutive week. Its stock price's 3,180% surge over the past five years was built on optimistic expectations of Bitcoin's one-sided rise. However, the war-triggered plunge instantly exposed the fatal weakness of this model: the double stranglehold of high leverage and high volatility.
Similarly radical Game Stop (GME) and Trump Media (DJT) also fell into difficulties. GME previously announced investing $513 million to purchase 4,710 Bitcoins, becoming the world's 13th largest Bitcoin holding listed company; DJT even launched a $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury plan, with most financing used to buy coins.
When Bitcoin broke below $100,000, these companies' balance sheets were instantly under pressure. Especially for companies like GME with poor cash flow, the double kill of stock and coin prices could trigger a vicious cycle: coin price drops, financial report impairment, stock price falls, financing capacity shrinks, unable to continue "defending the plate".
Ironically, new players still entered the market during the plunge. Last week, global listed companies net purchased $198 million in Bitcoin, including Japanese Metaplanet boldly investing $118 million to acquire 1,111 BTC, and four new companies like medical company Prenetics and French Blockchain Group making their first positions.
These new entrants face a severe "time lock": if Bitcoin continues to be under pressure, their calculation of boosting market value by imitating MicroStrategy may quickly fall through, and they might even face shareholder doubts for buying at high prices.
- Refined Hoarding Strategy: The rough "buy-hold-wait for rise" model is facing elimination. New entrants like Metaplanet choose to build positions in layers at low points (three levels at $98,000/$95,000/$92,000), combined with strict stop-loss (3%-5% below each level). MicroStrategy continues to accumulate during downturns through debt financing, transforming crisis into an opportunity to average down costs
- Regulatory Arbitrage Space Shrinking: The US "GENIUS Bill" is approaching voting, requiring stablecoins to have 100% reserves and federal regulation. Compliant players like Circle (CRCL) will benefit, while arbitrage behaviors relying on regulatory ambiguity will have nowhere to hide
- Traditional Finance's Strong Entry: JPMorgan applies for "JPMD" crypto trademark, exploring compliant stablecoin issuance with Bank of America. As Goldman Sachs and other institutions obtain crypto clearing licenses, grassroots narratives will completely give way to Wall Street-dominated Crypto Finance 2.0
- Crypto assets are also quietly evolving in war. Although Bitcoin's "safe-haven halo" has faded, its practical value in war-torn regions is highlighted: Ukraine received $127 million in aid through cryptocurrency, accounting for 6.5% of early international donations; Gaza uses Bitcoin mining machines to maintain communication networks; Iranian oil merchants bypass sanctions through mixing services
These marginal ecosystems coexist with mainstream finance, forming the "light and dark dual lines" of the crypto world
Summary Reflection: The Crypto World After the Smoke Clears
As Bitcoin falls below $100,000 in the midst of conflict, the fate of two types of listed companies becomes clear: MicroStrategy's stock price fluctuates violently with cryptocurrency prices, struggling to survive in a leverage vortex; while tech giants like Meta maintain their course through cash reserves and business resilience
This crash completely exposes the fatal flaw of the "Bitcoin balance sheet" strategy - it amplified bull market glory but also magnified bear market pain. As war increases volatility, latecomers like GameStop may find it difficult to replicate MicroStrategy's myth
A deeper transformation lies in market perception reconstruction. Bitcoin is moving from a romantic imagination of "digital gold" to a more complex positioning: a new value storage tool, a high-risk tech asset, and a financial lifeline in war zones. Its value is no longer determined by a single narrative, but defined by institutional capital flows, regulatory frameworks, and real application scenarios
The future belongs to two types of enterprises: one like Circle, deeply aligned with compliance trends in crypto-native institutions; the other like JPMorgan, entering with traditional financial strength. Companies trying to dress up financial reports with Bitcoin "magic" will ultimately reveal their true nature in cyclical tests
When the artillery falls silent, the real winners might be those enterprises that adhere to core businesses and steadily build crypto capabilities during turbulence. After all, in the eternal rules of the financial world, risk resistance always has more survival value than speculative revelry
