Geopolitical risks escalate: Bitcoin shows resilience against the trend, and the $98,000 support level is crucial

Despite recent geopolitical risks continuing to heat up - especially concerns about the potential closure of the Hormuz Strait triggered by US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities - international oil prices unexpectedly fell nearly 6% after reaching a 5-month high. Surprisingly, in this market environment dominated by risk aversion, Bitcoin and mainstream crypto markets have shown strong resilience, with prices stabilizing after a short-term decline. In traditional markets, the S&P 500 index rose 0.52% on Monday, reaching 6,006 points, maintaining its position above the 6,000 psychological level first breached earlier in the month. Gold prices approached $3,388 per ounce, with investors taking a wait-and-see attitude, suggesting the market does not truly expect an escalation of global tensions in the short term. Coinmarketcap data shows that at the time of writing, Bitcoin's 24H gain was nearly 4%, trading above $103,000, staging a strong rebound from the weekend's panic selling (when prices briefly dropped to around $99,000). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 52, indicating a mild bullish trend, not yet approaching the overbought zone (above 70). Note: RSI measures whether an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30). When RSI falls below 30, it typically signals that sellers are exhausted and a rebound may occur. Bitcoin is currently trading above its 50-week EMA (approximately $86,000 according to the chart) but faces resistance from multiple time cycle convergence. The continuously widening gap between Bitcoin's 500-week average price and 200-week EMA typically indicates sustained buying pressure, which traders usually interpret as a medium-term bullish signal. Coinglass data shows that the crypto network's 24-hour liquidation amount is $442 million, with long liquidations at $213 million and short liquidations at $229 million. In the past 24 hours, 135,361 people were liquidated globally.