Israel-Iran ceasefire expected, Fed turns dovish, BTC rises 8% overnight

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Editor's note: On the morning of June 24, after Trump announced that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, the Israeli military once again stated that Iran had recently launched missiles at Israel. At present, the future direction of Israel-Iran relations is still unclear.

On the morning of June 24, as Trump announced that Israel and Iran fully agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, the secondary cryptocurrency market rebounded after the risk aversion last night due to fears of an escalating war. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 and then rebounded to break through the $106,000 mark, with many Altcoin waiting for an opportunity to rebound. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, BTC has been falling back for nearly a week, hitting a low of $98,200 yesterday and quickly rebounding to $106,075 today, an increase of more than 8.02% during the period.

But the latest news is that Iran denied the impact of reaching a substantive ceasefire agreement. As of press time, Bitcoin is temporarily trading around US$105,000.

ETH is relatively weak after a wide decline and has not yet returned to the previous $2,500 platform. ETH rebounded to $2,440 after hitting a bottom of $2,111 yesterday, up more than 15.58%. SOL rebounded relatively strongly, rebounding to $147 after hitting a low of $121 yesterday, up 21.48%, but it may be sold by large investors due to the cold on-chain market. Sol still has a lot of room to go from the current high of $187.71.

The total market value of cryptocurrencies has rebounded by more than 6% from the low point, rising to $3.3 trillion. As risk aversion is released and Altcoin collectively rebound, Bitcoin's market share has slightly dropped from a high to 63.49%, but the Altcoin seasonal index is still at a low of 14, and the fear and greed index has fallen to 37, which represents fear. During the same period, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher overall. The S&P 500 closed up 0.96% at 6025.17 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.89% at 42581.78 points. The Nasdaq closed up 0.94% at 19630.98 points. Among U.S. cryptocurrency stocks, Circle has repeatedly set new highs, breaking through $298.41 during the session, which has risen more than 9.62 times from the issue price of $31, and the closing price fell back to $263.45. Coinbase fell slightly by 0.26% after a rise and then a fall, and its share price stabilized at the $300 mark, closing at $307.59. MicroStrategy continued to fall, falling slightly by 0.68%, closing at $367.18.

In terms of liquidation data, according to Coinglass, in the last 24 hours, more than 135,600 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation of US$495 million, US$380 million in short orders and US$115 million in long orders, mainly short orders. The largest single liquidation on CEX was ETH-USDT, which occurred on Binance and was worth US$12.1423 million.

Recently, the trend of risk assets such as Bitcoin is closely related to the conflict between Israel and Iran. The "much ado about nothing" drama between Iran and the United States in the first half of last night really affected the market's risk aversion sentiment. Later, the US military bases did not suffer substantial losses and Iran's retaliation was relatively "weak", which led to a slight rebound in risk assets. This morning, Israel, Iran, and the United States jointly confirmed that a comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached, which temporarily put an end to geopolitical uncertainties in the Gulf region and triggered a continued recovery in risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, Iran's latest statement has laid hidden dangers for the short-lived "peace".

A tense night in the bay

Iran: "Destructive and powerful" missiles launched at US military base in Qatar

On Monday evening, June 23rd, local time, and early morning on June 24th, Beijing time, Iranian media reported that Iran announced missile attacks against U.S. military bases in Iraq and Qatar. At the same time, explosions were heard in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and U.S. media reported that Iran launched multiple missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar.

Al Udeid Air Base is located about 35 kilometers southwest of Doha. It is the most modernized US military base in the Gulf region and one of the largest US military bases overseas, with more than 10,000 US soldiers deployed here.

The Iranian armed forces then issued a statement announcing a missile strike on the Udeid Air Base in Qatar where the US military is stationed. The statement said that the action was a response to the US military's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, approved by the Supreme National Security Council of Iran and carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The statement said that the Iranian armed forces launched a "destructive and powerful" missile at the Udeid Air Base in Qatar where the US military is stationed.

At the same time, the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran issued a statement saying that in response to the US aggression against Iran's nuclear facilities, the Iranian armed forces launched a fierce attack on the U.S. military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar that night. The number of missiles this time was the same as the number of bombs used by the US in the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The U.S. military base that was hit was far away from Qatar's residential areas and urban infrastructure. The statement emphasized that this action would not pose any threat to Qatar, a friendly country of Iran, and Iran is still committed to maintaining long-term friendly relations with Qatar.

Qatar: Successfully intercepted 19 missile attacks on Al Udeid Air Base, and the attack caused no casualties

After Iran confirmed that it had launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on the 23rd, the Qatari Ministry of Defense issued a statement confirming that Qatar's air defense system successfully intercepted 19 missile attacks on the Al Udeid Air Base that day, and the attack caused no casualties.

Qatar also said that the Al Udeid Air Base had been evacuated before Iran launched the attack.

US: Trump enters the White House Situation Room and says he does not want more US military involvement in the Middle East

During the midday trading of U.S. stocks on Monday, Eastern Time, U.S. government officials said that Trump met with the Secretary of Defense and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the White House Situation Room. Two officials familiar with the matter revealed that the United States is tracking multiple missiles launched by Iran at U.S. military facilities in Qatar and Iraq.

The US said that there were no casualties in Iran's attack on the US military base in Qatar, and that apart from Qatar, "there is no record of Iran launching attacks on US military bases in other countries."

Senior White House officials subsequently reported that Trump did not want the United States to engage in more military involvement in the Middle East.

A peace that had already been agreed upon?

Trump: No one on the US side was injured in the Iranian attack, maybe Iran can start to achieve peace

Before the U.S. stock market closed on Monday, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that Iran's response to the U.S. destruction of its nuclear facilities was "very weak" and that "we should thank Iran for notifying the United States in advance."

According to CCTV News, Trump said on his social platform, "Iran's official response to the United States' destruction of its nuclear facilities was very weak, which was expected by the United States." Trump said, "Iran launched 14 missiles, 13 of which were shot down and 1 flew in a non-threatening direction. No Americans were injured and almost no damage was caused."

Meanwhile, Trump's post said that because of Iran's advance notice, no one on the US side was injured. Now that Iran has responded to the attack on its nuclear facilities, "hopefully there will be no more hatred in the future." He also said: "Perhaps Iran can now begin to achieve peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same."

Trump: Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire

US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement aimed at ending a 12-day military conflict that has severely impacted the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and caused turmoil in global markets. According to reports, senior Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran has agreed to the US-proposed ceasefire agreement with Israel, which was brokered by Qatar.

However, it is reported that at the end of the cabinet meeting on the 24th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu asked cabinet members not to comment on the recent development, namely "Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire" until further notice. The latest news is that the Iranian Foreign Minister said that there is no "agreement" between Israel and Iran on a ceasefire or cessation of military operations, but they are willing to stop there.

The Fed's dovish tone reappears

Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman spoke out, supporting a rate cut as early as July. Bowman pointed out that data shows that tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be more delayed and less than initially expected, especially because many companies have already stockpiled inventory in advance. Continued progress in trade and tariff negotiations has significantly reduced the risks in the economic environment. Changes in trade policy may have only a minimal impact on the inflation indicators preferred by the Federal Reserve. In contrast, risks in the labor market may increase.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the lack of clear inflationary pressure since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2 could allow the Fed to resume cutting interest rates. He recalled that the Fed expected to lower interest rates at the beginning of the year and paused its rate cuts, mainly because of policy uncertainty.

At present, Bitcoin has rebounded sharply after a brief bottoming out, leaving the dangerous platform area of ​​97,000 US dollars. Trader Eugene wrote that BTC successfully defended the 100,000 US dollar mark, and he expected this to be the high point of panic caused by the entire Middle East situation. At present, the price of BTC remains in the range of 100,000 to 110,000 US dollars. If the market gradually fades the impact of geopolitical conflicts, it is expected to hit the upper edge of this range.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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