Last night and early this morning, a 180-degree turn occurred in the Middle East geopolitical situation.
After Iran conducted a "limited retaliation" against the U.S. military base in Qatar, U.S. President Trump posted on social media, confirming that he had received advance notice from Iran and stated that the attack "caused no U.S. casualties". More critically, Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement.
On June 24th at dawn Beijing time, Trump posted on his social media platform: "Congratulations to everyone! Israel and Iran have fully agreed to implement a complete and comprehensive ceasefire (approximately 6 hours from now, at which time Israel and Iran will end and complete their ongoing final tasks!), lasting 12 hours, after which this war will be considered over! Officially, Iran will begin the ceasefire, and at the 12th hour, Israel will begin the ceasefire, and at the 24th hour, the world will pay tribute to the officially ended 12-day war. During each ceasefire period, the opposing side will maintain peace and respect."
Previously, Iran's missile attack on the U.S. military base in Qatar caused market downturn, and Trump's statement was interpreted by the market as an important signal of easing tensions in the Middle East.
Market data shows that Bitcoin rebounded on the news, reaching over $106,000 at 6:30 AM Beijing time on the 24th, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%. Ethereum rose above $2,400 per coin, with a daily increase of 7.76%. Other mainstream cryptocurrencies also saw gains of 5%-8%. Solana led the Altcoins with approximately a 10% increase. At the time of writing, BTC slightly retreated to around $105,000.
If the weekend's sharp decline was due to the market overpricing geopolitical risks, Trump's latest statement clearly released a signal of easing, prompting funds to quickly flow back into risk assets.
It is worth noting that during Bitcoin's significant price fluctuations, a large-scale short selling liquidation occurred in the crypto market. According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours reached $482 million, with short positions accounting for over 70%.
Crypto analyst Crypto Caesar stated: "Bitcoin is currently maintaining its strength. This week's trend will be very interesting, BTC/USD is forming a clear head and shoulders reversal pattern - a bullish chart. Bitcoin is repeating the classic cycle of 'breakthrough new high → pullback → main upward wave', and the next vertical movement may be closer than you think. History is repeating itself, don't get trapped in chasing highs."
Meanwhile, derivatives market data shows optimistic sentiment is warming up. Trading institution QCP Capital points out that although the put option skew for September expiration remains high, short-term volatility is being compressed - a typical signal indicating traders are digesting broader spreading risks. "U.S. stock index futures, oil, and gold initially reacted to the news headlines but have now fallen back to last Friday's levels," QCP added, suggesting investors view the current situation as a regional conflict escalation rather than a full-blown global crisis.
Bitfinex Alpha's report on June 23rd noted that ETF fund inflows are "unusually stable", with spot ETFs becoming a programmatic bottom support. The report identified the $94,000-$95,000 range as a key support level, with $105,000-$110,000 as the recent resistance band. Analysts expect the price to oscillate within this channel until weekly fund inflows re-breakthrough $1.5 billion or a new macro catalyst emerges.
However, behind the market's optimistic sentiment, an unavoidable fact is that the Trump administration's policy statements remain the most unpredictable variable. From tariff policies to cryptocurrency regulation, this capricious president always brings "surprises". In such an environment, investors might just need to maintain cautious optimism and sincerely pray for more peace and love in the world, and less geopolitical maneuvering.
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