From 6,000 mg to 6.5 million mg! Learn how successful traders avoid becoming dopamine monsters in one article

Some people regard trading as an art, while others regard it as an important tool for changing their class. However, according to statistics, only 5% of traders in the world can truly become stable and profitable. Moreover, most people have long been unable to figure out whether they are operating the market or satisfying the dopamine pleasure in their brains.

Kyle Williams, a US stock day trader who is one of the 5% trading elites, doubled his 6,000 Mg to 6.5 million Mg, and made a profit of 2 million Mg in a single year by shorting junk stocks. He also set a record of never having a margin call in 10 years of trading. The following is his trading experience, personally revealing how to maintain trading discipline during the ups and downs and avoid becoming an out-of-control dopamine monster.

Don’t treat trading as entertainment, first figure out what you are doing

Williams first recalled that he became a millionaire before his 25th birthday. At that time, he lived with a roommate who watched Williams become rich through trading during the epidemic, but never asked Williams "how he did it."

Williams lamented:

"Many people are like my roommate. It's not that he doesn't want to make money, but the excitement brought by the ups and downs of the market attracts him more."

Recalling the first money-making strategy, from OTC panic rebound to short red K

Williams recalled that the first money-making advantage came from the over-the-counter (OTC) market. He found that some low-priced stocks would experience a sharp pullback within 30 minutes to an hour after the sharp rise, causing panic selling.

At this time, as long as the decline stops and the first green candle appears, he will enter the market to catch the rebound, usually getting more than 10% increase. He called this strategy "OTC Panic Dip Buy". Later, he found that these stocks usually ushered in the "first red candle day" after a few days of skyrocketing, which was a good time to short. Then he would short on the red candle day, wait for the bottom to fall, and then cover, or even go long, making a profit before and after.

From OTC to Nasdaq, only the most familiar tricks are used

As the OTC market cooled, Williams began to apply this logic to Nasdaq-listed stocks in 2019 and found that it was equally effective.

At the beginning of the COVID outbreak, he made a fortune by shorting stocks that were hyped up due to the concept of vaccines. Now he has about 7-10 trading strategies, but he doesn't use all of them. Williams said he would focus on a few strategies that he is "very familiar with and has a high winning rate" and bet heavily on them. In this regard, he emphasized:

"Don't place orders recklessly if you don't have an advantage. You need a strategy to rely on before you can steadily expand your positions and improve performance."

This kind of thinking enables him to execute strategies calmly like a robot and not be led by market sentiment.

It is a taboo not to value money. Small and big accounts should be treated equally.

Williams mentioned that although he had never actually had a margin call, he once made an emotional trade that reduced his $100,000 account to only $15,000. The reason was that he didn't care about the account and just messed around with it, not caring about risk control at all.

However, this also taught him that every account should be treated "equally".

Increase risk tolerance by 10% every month and train emotional acceptance

As for the difference between traders making 5 or 6 figures and those who can consistently make 7 figures, Williams points out that it depends on:

"Can you stably enlarge the area and accept the loss after the enlargement?"

But he stressed that this cannot be done overnight. His own approach is to increase risk tolerance by 10% every month to slowly cultivate "emotional acceptance."

Overtrading makes you lose money without knowing it

Speaking of the worst loss, it was when he traded FFIE in May 2024, with a total loss of nearly $400,000 in two positions. Williams explained that this stock was inherently bad, and in addition to financial instability, it relied on additional issuance to survive, but he did not expect the market sentiment to surge, and the stock price rose from a few cents to $4, causing him to be pulled back.

"I was so confident that the company would fail that I ignored the rise in the stock price, and it eventually collapsed."

He got up at 1 a.m. that day and then spent 15 hours trading without eating or resting. Finally, he stopped the loss of his position after the market closed to avoid another gap-up and liquidation the next day. He emphasized:

“Emotional fatigue can lead to impaired judgment, and even the best trading plans can be sabotaged by emotions.”

After the huge loss, he calmly executed the trading plan and made back 150,000 magnesium in one week.

Surprisingly, Williams did not take a break, but returned to the market the next day. He switched trading accounts, reduced his positions, and resumed trading FFIE.

"The stock later reversed, and I did both long and short, and ended up making back $150,000 in one week."

He said that during this period he relied on executing trading plans with complete calmness to avoid making the same mistakes again.

It is better to seek stability first than to seek speed. Imitation and then optimization are the key

Williams advises novices not to rush to make quick money, and to put establishing discipline and standardized processes first, such as making a watch list the night before and setting entry and exit rules.

He also emphasized that optimizing after imitation is a more practical approach than innovating from the beginning.

Figure out whether you want to trade or just enjoy the dopamine rush

Finally, Williams said the most thought-provoking sentence:

"The market doesn't really care whether you made money or lost money yesterday, nor does it care about your emotions. You say you want to make money, but your behavior tells me you're actually looking for excitement."

The key to successful trading is to be honest with yourself, continuously optimize strategies that have proven effective in the past, and maintain discipline under high pressure.

The author thought of a book I read before called " Dopamine Nation ", which described that the nature of gambling and trading is similar. Because when the results of gambling and trading are "unpredictable", dopamine in the brain will be strongly released, especially the disappointment of "almost winning", which is more likely to trigger desire and repetitive behavior.

Over time, the brain will develop tolerance and require higher frequency and intensity to be satisfied, which makes it impossible for gamblers to escape from this vicious cycle of "full of pleasure". So before entering the market, you should not ask yourself "how much do I want to earn", but whether you are clear about whether you are operating the market or being led by the market.

(Famous trader: Trading is an addiction worse than drugs. Two steps to help you get rid of 80% of bad trades )

In the crypto, capital efficiency and opportunity cost are more important than anything else, which has led more and more people to re-examine the traditional concept of "buying a house equals investment". For some senior crypto players, buying a house is no longer the financial end of life, but may become the biggest trap in asset allocation. When the Chinese housing market faces structural risks, starting from the perspective of encryption may help us see the truth.

Financial efficiency is king: Has buying a house become a "fake demand"?

Crypto OG @yuyue_chris shared that after entering the crypto field, his concept of asset management completely changed, and he began to pursue opportunity costs and optimal capital allocation. He believes that buying a house is simply a "false demand" before assets are fully accumulated.

Take a property worth RMB 10 million as an example. If calculated based on the annual interest rate of US Treasury bonds at 4%, it means a potential loss of RMB 400,000 in interest each year, which is as high as RMB 4 million in ten years. Renting a house of the same value only costs about RMB 10,000 per month, and the total cost in ten years is about RMB 1.2 million. In terms of capital efficiency, renting a house is far better than buying a house, and it does not sacrifice liquidity and future options.

If there were no rigid demands such as having children, modern people's income would be enough to live a comfortable life based on renting a house, and they should not be bound by the traditional concept that "buying a house is the goal of life."

Are you buying a house or a bond? The illusion of leverage in China’s housing market

Crypto KOL Crypto Wei Tuo took a more macro-system approach, criticizing that China's real estate is essentially a financial illusion woven by the government, banks and real estate developers. He pointed out that the profits of real estate companies are swallowed up by the 45% land value-added tax, plus the cost of bank loans, the actual profit margin is often as low as single digits.

However, real estate developers continue to rush in because they can rely on financing and leverage:

The entire system relies on the stability of commodity and second-hand housing prices, which is actually a split of "a small horse pulling a big cart". When the end-price can no longer hold up, even the first-tier hot areas such as Linglong Bay in Suzhou or Zhangjiang in Shanghai have been halved or dropped sharply, the entire housing market is already in danger.

Unlimited liability loans: China’s unique financial hell

In his eyes, homebuyers actually buy 90% of local debt plus 10% of construction costs. China's housing mortgage loans also have a rare " unlimited liability " clause in the world. Even if house prices plummet and properties are auctioned off, the remaining debt still needs to be repaid by the individual, otherwise he will be listed as a " dishonest person ", which will seriously affect his future employment and life.

In contrast, many countries such as the United States, Australia, and Canada use "limited liability loans". Once the value of the property cannot cover the loan, the borrower can choose to hand over the house to stop the loss, and the maximum loss is the property itself. This also makes Chinese home buyers more vulnerable financial hostages when the economy is down.

MSCI data reveals: China's housing market has entered a long-term bear market

According to the latest MSCI China A Real Estate Index report, Chinese real estate stocks have performed poorly since 2016, with an annualized return of -8.8% by May 2025, and a maximum decline of 73% in five years. The index includes six large real estate companies, including Vanke, China Resources and Poly.

The report pointed out that between 2020 and 2024, the sector experienced negative growth for five consecutive years, with a 31.75% drop in 2023. In addition, although the dividend yield is close to 3%, the overall price-earnings ratio (P/E) is negative, and the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is only 0.62, reflecting the market's pessimistic outlook for real estate companies.

The real estate sector has extremely high volatility and a negative Sharpe Ratio, which means that its returns are not enough to compensate for the risks, and it has lost its "investment" attribute from a quantitative data perspective. This is not just a short-term pressure, but a sign of structural recession.

( BlackRock is done with it? It is selling its last commercial office in Shanghai at a 30% discount, preparing to completely withdraw from the Chinese real estate market )

Current situation in Taiwan: Low rents and high housing prices

If we turn our attention back to Taiwan, we are also facing the problem of misallocation of funds in the housing market. According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, the average housing price to income ratio in Taiwan has reached 10.7 times (more than 15 times in Taipei), which is much higher than the reasonable international level (2 to 3 times), indicating that the threshold for young people to buy houses is extremely high.

In addition, the rental yield is only about 1.5% to 2%. In other words, renters only need to pay less than 2% of the house price to enjoy the same space and living conditions.

Furthermore, the government's anti-housing policies are becoming increasingly unfavorable to buyers. With the gradual implementation of measures such as the real estate tax , the housing hoarding tax and the vacant house tax, the disadvantages of high resale costs and almost no cash flow returns for owner-occupied housing will also emerge:

For young people who are sensitive to capital efficiency, renting a house not only reduces financial pressure, but also allows funds to be flexibly invested in other higher-return markets such as the stock market or the encryption field.

Under the current situation of high housing prices and low returns, buying a house is no longer a financial goal for many people, but a high-cost consumption behavior.

Looking at the housing market from the perspective of the crypto, does buying a house mean being in debt?

For crypto investors, asset liquidity, yield and risk control are far more important than "sense of security" or traditional values. Based on this logic, real estate is indeed gradually losing its essential attribute of "investment" and becoming a high-cost and low-return debt configuration.

The author believes that whether to buy a house should never be determined solely by the stage of life, but one should first ask oneself about the purpose, definition and life pursuit of buying a house.

Trump announced a few days ago that he would decide in two weeks whether the United States would join the war, and the day before yesterday, he attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. In a televised speech, Trump called the attack a brilliant victory. The United States raided Iran's key nuclear facilities, and countries around the world are seriously awaiting Iran's possible retaliation. This attack is the largest military action taken by Western countries and Israel against Iran since the Iranian Islamic Republic Revolution in 1979. Iran has announced that it will soon retaliate. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a statement saying that Iran's possible actions are "hacker network attacks." The following is a comprehensive report.

Previous article: Iran's nuclear facilities were bombed

The United States used a 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb on Saturday to bomb the mountainous area where Iran's Fordow nuclear facility is located. Iran then launched missiles at Israel, resulting in casualties on both sides. Iranian media reported that the explosion had killed six military personnel.

Trump supports regime change in Iran?

US President Trump hinted at his support for regime change in Iran on Truth Social, writing: If the current regime cannot make Iran great again, then why not replace it? This statement has aroused outside attention as to whether the United States has clearly expressed its support for the replacement of Iran's sovereignty. After Trump's speech, many officials emphasized that the military action "is not aimed at overthrowing the regime", which softened Trump's shocking words.

US Department of Homeland Security issues hacker threat warning

In the face of Iran's possible retaliation at any time, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that the domestic threat level has increased, and police in many places have stepped up patrols and deployed more personnel to religious and diplomatic sites. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a warning calling for an increase in threats, publicly stating that Iran may retaliate with cyber attacks, and pro-Iranian hackers may launch low-level cyber attacks on U.S. networks.

Airlines suspend flights to Dubai, Riyadh and other Middle East routes

Air France and KLM have cancelled flights between Dubai and Riyadh, showing the knock-on effect the conflict is having on the global aviation industry and that the crisis is no longer confined to the military sphere.

Iran takes a tough stance and refuses to restart negotiations

Trump claimed in his speech that the US had achieved a "brilliant military victory". Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran would not restart any diplomatic dialogue until the US stopped its attacks. The adviser to Iran's supreme leader even hinted at a surprise action.

Worried about the recurrence of 9/11 terrorist attacks! Defense Secretary helps Trump ease the situation

Trump is ambitious. Some US officials have said that the US will not overthrow Iran's current government. When the Republicans were in power, President Bush supported Israel's attack on Lebanon and intervened in the Iran-Iraq War. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden launched a "jihad revenge" against the US, causing the 9/11 attacks. Several terrorists hijacked civilian airliners and crashed them into the World Trade Center, causing heavy casualties in the US and severely damaging people's livelihood and economy.

Defense Secretary Hegseth told reporters at the Pentagon that the U.S. counterattack had nothing to do with regime change, and that President Trump authorized precision strikes aimed at eliminating the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program to the U.S. Anti-war activists organized demonstrations in New York, Washington and other U.S. cities on Sunday, with protesters holding signs that read "Don't interfere in Iran."

The United States recently launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned in an interview this morning on June 23 that this wave of US military action will not only cause oil prices to soar, but will also further disrupt the global economy.

US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities raises global economic uncertainty

In an interview, Georgieva said that the US air strikes on Iran have made the already unstable global situation even more chaotic.

She pointed out that the biggest shock at the moment comes from energy prices, and there may be "secondary and tertiary" effects. For example, if this wave of turmoil drags down growth expectations of large economies, the IMF will have to revise its global growth forecast again.

Crude oil market fluctuates wildly, war turmoil threatens to disrupt energy supply

According to Bloomberg , after the Asian market opened on Monday, the price of Brent crude oil, the global crude oil benchmark, soared 5.7% to $81.40 per barrel before falling back slightly, and trading volume also surged.

Georgieva pointed out that the IMF is paying close attention to changes in risk premiums in the oil and gas market. Currently, options trading has surged, and the futures price curve also clearly reflects market concerns about short-term supply tightness. She is more worried about whether the conflict will cause disruptions in energy supply routes or spread to other countries, further disrupting economic activities.

The IMF's April report revealed that the global economy is not optimistic, and Trump's tariffs are the main reason

Georgieva said that the IMF had already lowered its global economic growth forecast in April because Trump's tariff policy had caused a "reshuffle" in the global trade situation, dragging down overall economic growth. She added that judging from the data in the first two quarters of this year, this trend is indeed present.

She then noted that the global economy was not headed for a recession, but:

"Once market volatility increases, companies will stop injecting capital and consumers will tighten their spending, and growth momentum will naturally be much lower."

U.S. inflation pressure eases, Fed may consider rate cut before year end

Regarding the economic situation in the United States, George Eva said that the United States is currently in a stage of "easing inflation pressure", but it will take some time before the Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates.

She expects the Fed to decide whether to adjust interest rates based on the overall economic conditions at the time and will consider cutting interest rates before the end of this year. However, the U.S. labor market is still strong and wage growth is also supporting household consumption levels.

It is possible that the Fed will start considering interest rate cuts before the end of the year, depending on the overall economic situation at that time. She also mentioned that the current US labor market is still strong, and wage growth provides support for US household consumption.

(Iran’s trump card: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, will the global energy supply be disrupted? )