Article source: Between the Lines
Yesterday (Beijing time, June 22), as U.S. President Trump announced the completion of an airstrike on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, the Middle East situation further escalated, and some leaders playing with "fire" caused the crypto market to drop accordingly, with Bitcoin dropping to around $98,000 and Ethereum dropping to around $2,100.
While leaders were playing with "fire", they also burned many people's positions. According to on-chain data, in just 24 hours, the total liquidation funds exceeded $640 million, with long positions liquidation reaching $512 million, as shown in the following image.
Geopolitics once again became a catalyst for deleveraging. Although we have known since childhood that playing with "fire" is wrong, we cannot control what those above want to do or obtain insider information. Therefore, the only thing we can do is to hope for world peace in our hearts and manage our positions well in this complex "game" of geopolitical negotiations, market structure changes, and macroeconomic expectations while finding suitable trading opportunities.
Regarding market structure changes, I remember discussing the differences between this cycle's Bitcoin and Altcoin season in a previous article (March 13). Simply put, we have been following existing historical cycle patterns while continuously witnessing some new differences or new history.
For some time, due to the overlay of macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin's structure seems to have decoupled from the Altcoin structure. Therefore, our investment strategies should be executed as two separate plans: investment plans for Bitcoin and Altcoins can no longer be mixed.
1) For Bitcoin
Unless you enjoy scalping trades, our recommendation has always been to make long-term plans. Here's a simple strategy:
For example, using EMA21 and EMA55 indicators, when EMA21 crosses above EMA55, it can be considered a bullish signal (bull market confirmation). When Bitcoin's price touches above EMA21, it's a good entry point. As shown in the following image.
From the current trend, if Bitcoin has the opportunity to callback to around $94,000-$96,000, it remains a good stage for accumulation. At the same time, as long as Bitcoin's price can maintain above $84,000 (above EMA55), the Bitcoin bull market structure can still be considered valid.
2) For Altcoins
In the previous article (March 13), we redefined the Altcoin season as a mini Altcoin season, suggesting that we can hardly see a traditional Altcoin season. From this cycle, our so-called Altcoin season seems to have been replaced by rapid rises and falls of sector-specific seasons like MemeCoin Season, Trump Season, AI Season, unless fundamental liquidity changes, i.e., massive new liquidity enters the crypto market to support all Altcoins surging together.
Therefore, we need to further subdivide the strategy for Altcoins, such as:
For top large-cap Altcoins, although these coins may no longer satisfy people's tenfold or even hundredfold fantasies, such Altcoins will still have opportunities to improve with the development of the crypto field. In the short to medium term, if Bitcoin's dominance can be reversed, the probability of these tokens rebounding will be relatively high.
As for how to find top Altcoins, it's actually simple. Besides well-known coins like ETH, SOL, and BNB, you can directly use platforms like CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko, exploring through the Categories column to find top large-cap coins in each subdivision (track), while also paying attention to the project's tokenomics, such as distribution and unlocking issues. For example, TAO in the AI category, HYPE in the DeFi category, DOGE in the Meme category, etc. As shown in the following image.
Regarding opportunities for small-cap Altcoins or on-chain meme projects (high multiple returns or quick zero), we have listed many methods and tools in last year's (2024) e-book "Blockchain Methodology". Interested friends can review the historical article, so we won't discuss it further here.
In summary, besides investing in Bitcoin, if you want stability in Altcoins, focus on discovering projects with strong fundamentals, such as projects that can continuously generate revenue, have good tokenomics, can continuously build and have development vision... The simplest method is to select directly from the top 100 market cap (if your risk appetite is low, you can focus only on the top 30 projects).
Additionally, with the U.S. stablecoin bill's advancement, Circle's impressive performance after listing on the NYSE (with multiple crypto companies now announcing IPO plans)... some friends have fallen into new doubts: Has the long-awaited Altcoin season simply moved to the stock market? Have they been playing Web3 only to find the real Web3 is actually in the stock market next door? Since many crypto people missed this opportunity, I've noticed some friends have started turning to the stock market. As for whether to play the stock market simultaneously, it still depends on individual circumstances.
After clarifying investment directions for Bitcoin and Altcoins, the next step is to develop specific trading strategies, with the core being position management.
What is position management?
Position management refers to reasonably allocating the proportion of funds invested in trading or investing to control risk, protect principal, and improve returns. In simple terms, you need to clearly plan your funds, including how many parts your investment will be divided into, how much money you'll invest in each trade, and the maximum loss you can bear... to avoid blowout or significant losses from one or several mistakes.
Specifically for fund allocation, this might also vary by situation, such as:
If your investment areas are broad, covering cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, gold, etc., you might need to allocate different fund percentages to different areas, then further subdivide within each area. However, our recommendation has always been not to spread too thin, best to maintain focus and depth in 1-2 areas, unless your personal fund size and time and energy are sufficient to cover more areas.
If you focus solely on the crypto market, you just need to segment based on personal goals and risk appetite. Here, we'll discuss the crypto market with a simple example (relatively low-risk), such as spot trading. You can divide funds into 10 equal parts, with a 6:2:2 ratio: 6 parts for long-term BTC dollar-cost averaging, 2 parts for short to medium-term Altcoin trading plans, and 2 parts in USDC or USDT (maintaining necessary liquidity). Apart from BTC as a long-term plan, avoid going too deep into any Altcoin (unless you're extremely bullish on its future, otherwise just trade, not hold permanently), and try to limit simultaneous holdings to 10 coins or fewer. In essence, this means maintaining stable and simple positions, ready to defend or attack.
After allocating funds, the next step is to execute specific trading (buy and sell) operations based on your goals.
For BTC trading, if you can maintain sufficient patience, the probability of losing money is relatively low. As we mentioned in our article a few days ago (June 18th): If you haven't made money during the past 600+ days of the bull market, or you made money but then lost it, you should carefully think about and optimize your trading strategy. Don't try to predict the exact top during a bull market; the most important thing is to seize appropriate opportunities for staged profit-taking, not always aiming for a perfect top. If you firmly believe in BTC's long-term narrative, by extending your investment cycle and avoiding unnecessary actions, the probability of losing money seems relatively low.
As for Altcoins, large-cap coins are relatively better, while many small-cap coins seem almost indistinguishable from gambling. I've noticed a phenomenon where many people experience: Altcoins keep rising when they don't buy, but immediately get trapped when they do. How can one avoid this situation?
First, from an emotional perspective, buying "late" can lead to being trapped.
For most people (mainly retail investors), they rarely invest time in deep learning or research beyond browsing news or updates. They only pay attention to coins when prices rise, often through push notifications, which already indicates higher risk. High prices mean early investors might be selling, and chasing hot trends due to FOMO increases the chance of being trapped.
Second, from a cycle perspective, buying "too early" can also lead to being trapped.
If you're new to this field or currently in a cash position, would you immediately buy Altcoins? Buying now, especially small-cap Altcoins, could likely result in portfolio losses in the coming months, as most Altcoins are still in a downtrend relative to BTC and don't seem to meet the conditions for a new Altcoin season.
Therefore, we need to combine cycle perspectives to avoid premature buying, which can be approached from several angles:
For instance, from a macro (bull-bear cycle) perspective, the best strategy is to buy fundamentally strong projects during bear markets that continue ecosystem development, then patiently wait to sell during bull markets. Given the current market trend, we haven't reached the theoretical bear market stage. If you want to operate based on macro cycles, you can patiently wait until the next bear market arrives (assuming existing cycle patterns hold, possibly late 2026 or 2027).
Considering small cycles (stage-based cycles), we've actually experienced 3 mini Altcoin seasons in the past year. The first was in Q1 2024, the second in November 2024, and the third around May 2025. The fourth opportunity's timing is unpredictable (perhaps August or September), but you can consider indicators like BTC.D and Altseason index. Currently, BTC.D is near 66% relative peak range, and a clear downward signal could indicate an Altcoin buying opportunity.
Of course, this is just theoretical discussion. We won't provide specific trading guidance or definitively state which Altcoin will rise. Our concrete advice remains: Only buy projects you understand, control position sizing, approach Altcoin trading unemotionally, ensure timely profit-taking during bull markets, avoid excessive risk, stay active without chasing. If you're still uncertain, BTC remains your safest investment path.
Many people's happiness is built on others' pain, and similarly, many profits are built on others' losses. When successful, avoid pride and complacency; when failing, seriously summarize experiences and lessons.
In any field, some will be optimistic while others are pessimistic. If you continue to believe in the crypto domain, keep observing and discovering opportunities. Whether stocks or cryptocurrencies, any financial domain has volatility opportunities. Where volatility exists, markets form; markets create trading opportunities; trading requires strategy, but strategies vary by individual. Some might advocate extreme approaches, but theories should be customized and optimized from personal perspectives. Maintain an open attitude to learn from others, build your trading system, plan your trades, and trade your plan.
