Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, which is $2.06 trillion.Stablecoin market capitalization is $251.5 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.63%, of which USDT accounts for 62.14%.
This week, BTC's price has been range-bound, currently at $105,300; ETH is also range-bound, currently at $2,551.
CoinMarketCap Among the top 200 projects, a small portion rose while most declined, including: KAIA with a 7-day increase of 45.16%, AERO with a 7-day increase of 45.15%, AB with a 7-day increase of 43.15%, RVN with a 7-day increase of 43.63%.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow: $1.3703 billion; US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $527.6 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on June 14th was 52 (higher than last week), with market sentiment being: 4 days neutral, 3 days greedy.
Market Forecast:
This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with significant net inflows into US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. BTC and ETH remain range-bound. The RSI index is 39.65, showing weakness, with the Altcoin season index at 24. The US May CPI and PPI indices were in line with market expectations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet been apparent. The Fear & Greed Index remains between neutral and greedy.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.2%, with rate cuts expected to begin in Q3 this year. The market has absorbed the expectation of no rate cut in June, so next week's rate announcement will not have a significant impact. BTC's price is expected to be in the range of $102,000-$107,000. The current Israel-Iran conflict is quite sharp, and in the short term, the market may decline due to its impact. However, in the long term, the bull market is brewing for its final sprint. If the US stablecoin bill is officially passed in August and the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, a significant rally is expected. Currently, it is recommended to buy on dips.
Understanding Now
Weekly Major Events Review
1. On June 9th, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, an alternative amendment to the clear digital asset market bill 'CLARITY Act' has been released. This alternative amendment is an updated version of the submitted bill, including recent amendments and new content;
2. On June 9th, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, BlackRock's IBIT holdings broke through $70 billion, becoming the fastest ETF to reach this milestone in just 341 days, 5 times faster than GLD's old record of 1,691 days;
3. On June 10th, the Ethereum Foundation announced the first 1TS report, outlining existing security challenges in the Ethereum ecosystem, following last month's announcement of the "Trillion-Scale Security" (1TS) plan;
4. On June 11th, the meme project Slerf posted product screenshots on its official Twitter, hinting at a potential token issuance platform called Slerrrfpad;
5. On June 12th, the US Senate passed the procedural vote for the GENIUS Stablecoin Act with a 68-30 vote, initiating full Senate debate and final voting;
6. On June 11th, according to Bloomberg, payment company Stripe agreed to acquire crypto wallet provider Privy, building on its recent acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge;
7. On June 11th, Sonic Labs announced the second season S token airdrop will start on June 18th;
8. On June 13th, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilians are expected in the near future after Israel's attack on Iran;
9. On June 13th, Coinbase announced the launch of perpetual contracts in the US;
10. On June 12th, according to The Information, an undisclosed company at the core of the US financial system is exploring issuing a stablecoin;
11. On June 13th, according to Bitcoin Magazine, Japanese mobile game studio Gumi purchased 1 billion yen (approximately $6.96 million) worth of Bitcoin.
Macroeconomic
1. On June 12th, Canadian listed company Matador acquired 5.38 Bitcoins;
2. On June 13th, according to an official announcement, Japanese listed company Remixpoint recently added 56.87 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $5.915 million;
3. On June 11th, Trump stated on Truth Social that an agreement with China is near, with China supplying rare earth and the US providing terms including student enrollment;
4. On June 11th, US May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, core CPI year-on-year rate was 2.8%;
5. On June 12th, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7th were 248,000;
6. As of May 31st, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June was 2.2%.
ETF
According to statistics, from June 9th to June 13th, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $1.3703 billion. As of June 13th, GBTC (Grayscale) has outflowed $23.193 billion, currently holding $19.468 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.132 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $129.738 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $527.6 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Announcements
1. NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23rd to 25th, 2025, in New York, USA;
2. Permissionless IV will be held from June 24th to 26th, 2025, in New York, USA;
3. EthCC 8 will be held from June 30th to July 3rd, 2025, in Cannes, France;
4. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held from July 2nd to 4th, 2025, in Kyoto, Japan.
Project Progress
1. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ARKB will conduct a 3:1 stock split on June 16th to make the fund more accessible to investors. The company stated that this stock split will not affect ARKB's net asset value, stock code, or investment strategy, and its stocks will continue to trade under the same CUSIP;
2. Decentralized social protocol Farcaster is expected to launch 3 professional subscription benefits in the week of June 16th, including: 10K character content posting, 4 embedded functions (including images, videos, URLs, CA, and mini-apps), and a new profile banner image feature;
3. Lido has gradually shut down its staking service on Polygon, with a transition period from December 16, 2024, to June 16, 2025. On June 16, 2025, front-end support will end, and withdrawals can only be made through browser tools;
4. Nansen Points Season 1 will launch on June 17th, with users' current staking, subscription, invitation, and other operations on Nansen being counted towards their points balance on that day.
Important Events
1. To commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army, the United States will hold a large-scale military parade and celebration in the capital Washington on June 14th. This parade coincides with the birthday of US President Donald Trump and Flag Day;
2. On June 17th, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
3. On June 18th, the US will release the weekly initial jobless claims;
4. The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on June 18th;
5. The UK will announce its central bank interest rate decision by June 19th;
6. On June 19th, Japan will release the May core CPI year-on-year rate.
Token Unlocks
1. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 1,538 tokens on June 17th, valued at approximately $10.53 million, representing 1.54% of circulating supply;
2. Cronos (CRO) will unlock 1.17 billion tokens on June 17th, valued at approximately $107 million, representing 1.17% of circulating supply;
3. Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock 89.37 million tokens on June 19th, valued at approximately $3.43 million, representing 1.79% of circulating supply;
4. Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock 15.5 million tokens on June 19th, valued at approximately $30.89 million, representing 1.55% of circulating supply;
5. Zksync (ZK) will unlock 759 million tokens on June 19th, valued at approximately $39.13 million, representing 3.62% of circulating supply;
6. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on June 21st, valued at approximately $81.05 million, representing 1.03% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and all-day market fluctuation monitoring, combined with the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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