The United States and the United Kingdom have rarely synchronized their Middle East deployment within 12 hours, highlighting the dangerous atmosphere after the stalled Iran nuclear negotiations. Reuters, citing three US officials, reported that Washington has authorized non-essential diplomatic and defense personnel to leave Iraq and neighboring countries; the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) simultaneously issued a "high alert" notification to ships crossing the Arabian Gulf.
Background of Withdrawal and Warning
Pentagon officials revealed that the evacuation order currently covers Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, with about 1,200 civilian personnel and their families able to choose to return home by military aircraft. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized in a statement that "protecting personnel safety is the top priority".
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned on state television:
"If negotiations fail, our missile range is sufficient to cover all US military facilities in the region."
The US and Iran are negotiating a new nuclear agreement, with the core goal of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting economic sanctions on Iran. US President Trump reiterated that the US will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, regardless of whether a nuclear agreement is reached.
The specific requirements include Iran stopping uranium enrichment activities, while the US considers corresponding lifting of economic sanctions. Since April this year, the two sides have held five rounds of indirect talks under the mediation of the Sultanate of Oman, but the negotiations have not progressed smoothly. Trump candidly admitted in a recent interview that his confidence in reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran is declining...
Possible Impact: Oil Prices, Shipping, and Geopolitics
Energy traders reacted the fastest. Bloomberg terminal data shows that Brent crude jumped over 4% on the 11th, reaching its highest level in over two months, with hedging buying also pushing ICE European diesel contracts up 3%. If shipping is disrupted, the International Energy Agency estimates that each day of interruption could reduce current supply by 1.7 million barrels per day.
The market is also paying attention to the region's potential military chain reaction. The Israeli Defense Forces raised the northern alert level to "orange" on the 6th, and Saudi Arabia again emphasized "defensive preparedness". Pierre Duval, a retired foreign legion officer from Paris and current consultant, pointed out: "Any accidental friction could pull multiple proxy battlefields into the same regional war."
Washington still maintains a diplomatic channel. A US State Department official said in a telephone briefing that they are willing to "return to the negotiating table at any time" but refused to specify a timeline. Iran insists that it will only sign an agreement after sanctions are lifted.
The evacuation order and maritime warning indicate that the US and UK judge that the situation has reached a "potentially militarily escalating" critical point; each subsequent official statement could cause the market to fluctuate dramatically again, so investors should be cautious of risks.
Middle East Risk Heats Up, US Stocks Rise and Fall
Encouraged by moderate inflation performance, US stocks initially rose slightly after opening last night, but later turned negative, possibly due to increased security risks in the Middle East:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1 points, closing at 42,865.77 points.
- S&P 500 Index fell 16.57 points (0.27%), closing at 6,022.24 points.
- Nasdaq Index fell 99.11 points (0.5%), closing at 19,615.88 points.
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 9.97 points (0.19%), closing at 5,232.53 points.
