US May inflation data shows better-than-expected mild signs, bringing positive signals to risk assets. Specifically, the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year was 2.4%, lower than the market's general expectation of 2.5%; the month-on-month rate was also only 0.1%, also lower than the expected 0.2%.
Core inflation data (excluding volatile food and energy prices) also showed a similar slowdown trend: the year-on-year rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; while the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate was only 0.1%, significantly lower than the market's expectation of 0.3%.
After the report was released, the crypto market showed a rising and then falling trend, BTC momentarily approached $110,000, ETH rose 3% to $2,834, XRP rose 1.8% to $2.32. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap remained around $3.4 trillion. CoinGlass data shows that as of the time of writing, the network-wide 24h liquidation amount reached $300 million, of which ETH liquidation was about $100 million, and BTC clearing was about $37 million.
Whale Movement
While BTC rose and then fell, on-chain data also observed increased whale activity.
On-chain tracking platform Whale Alert discovered on June 11 that a large amount of Bitcoin was flowing into the US crypto exchange Coinbase. According to data from the tracking platform, in just about two hours, multiple anonymous whales transferred over 3,165 BTC (worth over $347 million) to Coinbase through several transactions.
The largest transaction involved 738 BTC, with other transactions also being large anonymous wallet transfers (such as 466 BTC, 464 BTC, 463 BTC, etc.).
Notably, 510 BTC (worth about $56.1 million) was transferred from the well-known crypto trading company Cumberland to Coinbase Institutional, which typically indicates that whales may be trying to sell their tokens, although the specific reasons for these transfers have not been confirmed, but could also be an attempt by whales to rebalance their portfolios. However, considering the large volume, high repetition, and involvement of companies like Cumberland, this is likely the action of large participants, especially institutions.
Possibly influenced by this whale activity, Bitcoin broke below the $110,000 mark from the day's opening and stabilized around $108,677 at the time of writing.
Trend and Technical Analysis
Data shows that the current Bitcoin contract market's funding rate is very stable or low.
The author believes that this typically indicates that the current rebound is driven by investors actually buying spot, rather than being pushed by high-leverage contract trading. With high-leverage positions not being mainstream in the market, the risk of triggering large-scale selling and sharp declines is low, so the possibility of continued price increases is greater.
From the technical chart, Bitcoin opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, trading around 110,375 points. After opening, BTC oscillated around this price for about 180 minutes, then began to slowly decline, touching the day's low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 PM, BTC quickly surged, ultimately closing around 110,455 points. That day, a yang cross K-line with a long lower shadow was formed, with a gain of about 1.02%.
Through the daily trading channel model, Bitcoin is currently running above the red and green protection channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. Sentiment indicators have also slowly recovered with the price increase, showing that market confidence is recovering.
From the 1-hour K-line chart, the trading model shows that the short-term price is running above the white multi-short line, with sentiment indicators at a high level, about to form a top divergence pattern. This means that the probability of short-term market volatility is higher, and there might be a pullback to the 108,720 point (intraday low), which needs close observation to see if it will be broken.
The author believes that through 1-hour K-line data analysis, multiple indicators are at high levels, increasing the probability of intraday volatility, and the key is to observe whether the 108,720 point low will be broken. Through daily K-line data analysis, BTC is running above the red and green protection channel, and medium-term long positions can be continued to hold.
Authors: Mary Liu, Cody Feng
Warm Reminder: All analyses and views contained in this article belong to the author's understanding of the market and do not constitute any form of buying or selling advice. The market is risky, and investment requires caution. All readers must make independent investment decisions based on their own circumstances and bear the corresponding risks.
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