Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Today is May 19th, and many people are probably familiar with the number 519. On May 19, 2021, the crypto market experienced a massive crash, with Bitcoin's price plummeting from around $44,000 to $29,000 (a drop of over 34%), Ethereum being halved, and other Altcoins also experiencing significant declines, leading to massive liquidations and market panic.
Yesterday (May 18th), Bitcoin briefly broke through the $107,000 mark, just shy of its all-time high, perhaps still haunted by the shadow of the 519 event a few years ago. Today, Bitcoin continued a slight pullback, with its price around $102,500 at the time of writing. As shown in the image below.
Just yesterday, a friend messaged me asking: Will Bitcoin rise to $150,000 this year?
I said: It's not impossible, but you should also consider your entry cost and goals. If the risk isn't too high and you need cash flow (USDT), you might want to start selling in batches around $100,000. Of course, if you're a long-term hodler, it doesn't matter - even if it doesn't reach $150,000 this bull run, it will likely be seen in the next one.
The friend then asked: My Bitcoin cost is around $60,000. I want to sell half when Bitcoin reaches $120,000 this year to recoup my initial investment, and then slowly dollar-cost average during the bear market. What do you think?
I then asked: Do you have a plan B? If Bitcoin doesn't reach $120,000 this year, do you have a backup plan, and will it affect your future investment strategy?
The friend continued: No plan B, I'm mainly worried about not having enough funds to buy the dips.
I said: Since your priority is to have enough funds to buy the dips, you might want to consider selling in batches now (around $100,000) rather than risking everything on a potentially higher return, unless you're willing to accept the risk of potentially not having enough funds during the bear market.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating into English.]Of course, by the time we see such messages, we are already among the last to know, but capital is often very keen, and typically dislikes macroeconomic uncertainty. Therefore, whether you like it or not, the current crypto market seems to heavily depend on changes in macroeconomic conditions.
If macroeconomic conditions improve and are coupled with positive fundamental changes in the project itself, the reasons for "pulling the market" might become more sufficient. For example, ETH's significant rise this month is not only due to improved macroeconomic conditions but also potentially benefiting from the Pectra upgrade (May 7th), further review expectations of spot ETF staking (with news in early May that BlackRock and SEC have discussed ETH staking), and ETH massively flowing out of exchanges (outflow usually indicates investors are more confident and increasing holdings, as shown in the image below).
Note: The image shows a heat map of Altcoins flowing out of Binance, with red indicating high outflow Altcoins. Currently, the top outflowing Altcoins include ETH, ENJ, SLP, FET, and others.
Although macroeconomic conditions are currently improving, we still face aspects that need improvement or unknown issues, including: the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems still in negotiation, small-scale India-Pakistan conflicts might recur, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut remains undecided, the possibility of a US economic recession remains relatively high, and so on.
Meanwhile, the overall sentiment of retail investors in the crypto market doesn't seem to have reached the same frenzy as in previous bull markets. Although during the period when Trump launched a token (TRUMP token) early this year, it seemed to have a familiar flavor, it still feels somewhat lacking.
In short, the current market has shown new signs of improvement, but it still appears more dependent on temporary macroeconomic condition improvements and large capital driving (or traditional capital spillover). While the crypto market now looks more promising compared to February and March this year, we still need to pay attention to potential new macroeconomic changes and cannot rule out potential black swan events.
What we need to continue considering is how long BTC's bullish trend can be maintained under existing conditions. Will this bull market really continue until the end of the year?
Of course, if your plan targets the next 5-10 years and you believe Bitcoin will rise to $200,000, $300,000, or even $500,000, then you only need to maintain patience. You can continue to buy Bitcoin in batches and stages, without being too concerned about current short-term price fluctuations. Although many people say the next bear market might see Bitcoin drop to $50,000 or even $30,000, what's most important is whether you will (or dare to) buy Bitcoin again and whether you'll have sufficient funds to buy Bitcoin.
