In the comments of yesterday's article, many readers questioned my statement that Bitcoin enters a bear market when it drops 20% from its peak.
When writing that passage, I remembered having previously organized historical data on this matter, leaving an impression of 20%, so I wrote it that way.
Later, I thought that 20% is the index decline standard used to measure a bear market in the stock market.
So does Bitcoin have a similar decline standard?
I checked the data on Coingecko (
https://www.coingecko.com/), which only has data since April 2013. Therefore, I summarized the data starting from this date:
I went through all the declines where the maximum drop after reaching a new high exceeded 20% during each Bitcoin bull market cycle after surpassing the previous bull market peak (equivalent to entering a new bull market) before reaching the new bull market peak.
Here, I chose 20% as the decline because I view it as a significant fluctuation that could potentially change the trend, while declines less than 20% are considered normal fluctuations.
When sorting through this historical data on Coingecko, I used daily price trends for statistical convenience.
In the data starting from 2013, the first bull market peak was on November 29, 2013, when Bitcoin reached a bull market peak of $1,101.
I used this as the starting point.
On February 21, 2017, Bitcoin exceeded $1,101 and entered a new bull market.
From March 3, 2017, to March 24, 2017, Bitcoin dropped from $1,289 to a low of $940, a decline of 27%.
From June 11, 2017, to July 16, 2017, Bitcoin dropped from $3,013 to a low of $1,927, a decline of 36%.
From September 1, 2017, to September 14, 2017, Bitcoin dropped from $4,863 to a low of $3,100, a decline of 36%.
From November 8, 2017, to November 12, 2017, Bitcoin dropped from $7,461 to a low of $5,866, a decline of 21%.
On December 16, 2017, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $19,665.
On December 17, 2020, Bitcoin exceeded $19,665 and entered a new bull market.
From January 9, 2021, to January 28, 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $40,815 to a low of $30,445, a decline of 25%.
From February 22, 2021, to March 1, 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $57,669 to a low of $44,970, a decline of 22%.
From April 14, 2021, to July 21, 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $64,576 to a low of $29,971, a decline of 53%.
It's worth noting that the famous 5/19 crash occurred during the period from April 14 to July 21. If the 5/19 crash is not counted, Bitcoin dropped from $64,576 to $48,981 from April 14 to April 26, a decline of only 24%.
On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $67,617.
Looking at the data from these two cycles:
In the 2017 bull market:
- After entering the bull market, there were 4 instances of declines exceeding 20% after reaching new highs. In each of these significant drops, the time span was within one month for 3 times, with only 1 time just slightly over a month.
- From Bitcoin entering the bull market (breaking the previous high in February 2017) to the bull market peak, the time span was 10 months.
- The first such decline's lowest point was in March 2017, and from that low point to the peak of that bull market was December 16 of the same year, with a time interval of 9 months.
In the 2021 bull market:
- After entering the bull market, there were 3 instances of declines exceeding 20% (including 5/19). If the 5/19 crash is excluded, each time span was within 1 month, with the 5/19 crash lasting over a month.
- From Bitcoin entering the bull market (breaking the previous high in December 2020) to the bull market peak, the time span was 11 months.
- The first such decline's lowest point was in January 2021, and from that lowest point to the peak of that bull market was November 9 of the same year, with a time interval of 10 months.
Summarizing the characteristics of these two bull markets:
- The number of such declines decreased in the second bull market.
- In terms of decline magnitude, if the second 5/19 crash is excluded, the decline magnitude in the second bull market was smaller than the first.
- In both bull markets, the majority of significant drops lasted no more than 1 month.
- In both bull markets, the time span from entering the bull market to reaching the bull market peak was 1 year.
- In both bull markets, the time span from the first decline's lowest point to the bull market peak was also 1 year.
Now, let's look at the current market situation:
Bitcoin entered its bull market on March 9, 2024, by exceeding $67,617.
From March 14, 2024, to September 7, 2024, Bitcoin dropped from $73,097 to a low of $53,923, a decline of 26%.
From December 17, 2024, to April 9, 2025, Bitcoin dropped from $106,074 to a low of $76,329, a decline of 28%.
Although these two declines are not large, the time span is significantly extended, spanning nearly half a year. From the perspective of time span, this is already showing different characteristics compared to the previous two bull markets.
So how does this Bitcoin trend correlate with the US stock market?
Let's look at the S&P 500 index trend.
The S&P 500 index was rising from March 14, 2024, to September 7, 2024; from December 17, 2024, to April 9, 2025, it dropped from around 6,050 to 5,456, a decline of 10%.
This trend doesn't seem very similar to Bitcoin either.
If we calculate from when Bitcoin entered the bull market (March 2024), theoretically the bull market should end in March 2025. Clearly, this pattern doesn't apply this time either.
However, if calculated from the first occurrence of the above decline, from the lowest point of the first decline, theoretically the bull market would end in September 2025.
Let time be the witness of what will actually happen.
