Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year, Ethereum will reverse Solana and return to glory

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, shared his sharp observations on the current market at the Token2049 event. He believed that the unexploded debt bomb of the US government will fuel the price of Bitcoin, predicting that it is expected to reach $250,000 by the end of this year. He is more optimistic that Ethereum will outperform Solana in the next two years. He also revealed that he still has 20% of his assets allocated in gold, and predicted that the price of gold will double.

The US debt crisis is brewing a new wave of Bitcoin bull market. Hayes: Buying bonds is not as good as buying coins

In a recent interview with Fortune , Hayes pointed out that the U.S. Treasury recently used the Treasury General Account (TGA) to circumvent the debt ceiling, reducing the TGA balance from $750 billion to $450 billion in one quarter, which is like secretly increasing debt without recording it in the accounts:

From January to March of this year, the US government's actual spending was 22% higher than the same period last year. This means higher deficits and more liquidity.

( Will the United States impose a remittance tax on funds remitted out of the country to prevent the full flight of US dollars? )

He further analyzed that when the Ministry of Finance needs to raise funds at a lower interest rate, it will push up market leverage and liquidity, which will be beneficial to risky assets such as Bitcoin:

This is the funding logic behind the so-called "buyback". I believe that Bitcoin has bottomed out on April 9 and will continue to rise.

Bitcoin's target is $250,000. Is the alt season coming?

Hayes expressed optimism about the short-term trend of Bitcoin. He predicts that Bitcoin will break through the $110,000 mark this summer or early third quarter, and as trading volume climbs to $150,000 to $200,000, funds will gradually rotate to other Altcoin. He believes that the alt season will begin after the surge in Bitcoin, but it will not be like 2021 when " hundreds of coins will soar ":

This time the market will not be a super bull market with a 100-fold increase, but rather individual hype based on new narratives and new demands. Those old coins with too high FDV, too low circulation, lack of users and revenue will remain stagnant and have no hope.

He emphasized that the core principle of deploying funds is to " outperform Bitcoin ", otherwise there is no investment value.

( Bitcoin price will exceed 1 million in 2028! Arthur Hayes warns: Europeans should flee and transfer their money out )

Ethereum will "return to glory": fundamentals are still the focus of capital rotation

In the competition between Ethereum and Solana, Hayes chose to stand on the side of " undervalued Ethereum ". He admitted that Ethereum currently has very negative market and community sentiment , but it still has the most developers, the highest TVL, and is the most secure PoS blockchain: " These fundamentals have not changed, it's just that everyone hates it. "

( Has Solana already surpassed Ethereum? The true value of the public chain can be seen from the debate on the new on-chain indicator REV )

Although Solana has soared from $9 to $170 today since the 2022 bear market, he believes that Ethereum will perform better in the bull market in the next 18 to 24 months:

If I were to invest a new sum of money now, I would choose Ethereum.

Gold allocation is as high as 20%, predicting the US strategy of "devaluing the dollar to save the economy"

Despite being best known for cryptocurrencies, Hayes still holds a significant portion of his assets in gold. He revealed that currently about 20% of his portfolio is in gold , including physical gold and gold mining stocks:

Central banks are buying gold aggressively, and I believe the US will eventually raise its treasury gold valuation to devalue the dollar against gold, which will push gold prices to $10,000-20,000.

( UBS: Asian wealthy people turn their assets to gold, cryptocurrency and the Chinese market, reducing their holdings of US dollars )

He pointed out that like Bitcoin, gold will benefit from monetary easing and debt problems, and is an important safe-haven tool against inflation and fiat currency risks.

Optimistic about Trump's crypto policy but not expecting much: "He's not here just for the crypto"

Hayes was once in trouble with the law for money laundering prevention issues and was eventually pardoned by Trump. He believes that Trump's policy tone will be more friendly after his return, but he does not recommend excessive expectations:

Everyone thought that Trump would go all out to promote encryption as soon as he took office, but he is a politician and has many priorities to deal with, and cryptocurrency is not the first priority.

Regarding the overall market forecast, he concluded: " Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise , and it is expected to reach a high of $250,000 this year ; by then, Altcoin will set off a small wave , and the market will be surprised again."

Zhu Jiaying, the founder of DayDayCook (DDC), a Hong Kong-based American company that focuses on online cooking tutorials, announced in a shareholder letter on May 15 that she has purchased 100 Bitcoins as the first step in promoting her Bitcoin reserve strategy, and plans to gradually hold 5,000 Bitcoins within three years.

Revenue hits new high in 2024, and Bitcoin reserves are deployed in advance

According to the annual report submitted by DDC to the SEC, DDC's total revenue for the full year 2024 was approximately RMB 273 million (approximately US$37.4 million), a year-on-year growth rate of 33%.

DDC founder Zhu Jiaying stated in a shareholder letter on March 18 that she intends to adopt a Bitcoin reserve strategy to strengthen her financial structure and keep up with the trend of digital assets. Then Zhu Jiaying tweeted on 5/14:

"DDC has purchased 100 bitcoins."

DDC has purchased 100 BTC and aims to hold 5,000 BTC within three years

DDC founder Zhu Jiaying revealed the Bitcoin reserve plan in the latest shareholder letter:

• Currently 100 BTC have been purchased.
• The goal is to reach 500 by 2025.
• The number will gradually accumulate to 5,000 within three years.

The SEC document does not mention the purchase of Bitcoin, but it leaves a hint

Although DDC has made its reserve plan public, the annual report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not directly mention holding Bitcoin or initiating Bitcoin reserves. However, DDC also mentioned in its annual report that it is currently facing great financial pressure and is looking for ways to raise money, including:

• Fundraising

• Issuing bonds

• Negotiate to postpone the repayment of old debts

• Diversified income

• Find ways to cut costs

At the same time, it also warned shareholders: "DDC is not sure whether the financing will be successful. If it fails to raise money, it may affect operations."

The document also references the new accounting standard ASU 2023-08 issued by the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) at the end of 2023. ASU 2023-08 clarifies the accounting and disclosure methods for crypto assets. In other words, DDC is likely ready for crypto assets to be accounted for.

Has China’s stance on encryption changed? DDC strategy cannot represent China

Although China has issued a ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining since 2021, as Hong Kong actively embraces the blockchain industry and the Trump administration expresses support for crypto assets. There is speculation as to whether China will relax its own cryptocurrency-related policies in the future.

However, some experts have reminded that DDC’s introduction of a Bitcoin reserve strategy is its own operating strategy and does not represent China’s position. Currently, companies in China are still not allowed to legally hold or trade cryptocurrencies, but this has also caused the outside world to begin to pay attention to whether Chinese companies will further enter the encryption industry. all in all:

• DDC has currently purchased 100 bitcoins and plans to reach 5,000 within three years.

• Revenue growth of 33% in 2024, more confident in Bitcoin reserve layout

• DDC did not mention Bitcoin in its SEC annual report, but it seems to have started sweeping the currency

• China's encryption ban has not been relaxed, but Hong Kong and mainland companies have begun to test the waters