Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,592, still oscillating between $101,000 and $105,000. If capital inflow does not show significant growth, it is expected to remain within this range in the short term.
ETH is performing!
ETH has just taken off, and the true bull market has yet to unfold. The current rally is not only a price realization but also a signal of trend reversal. Starting from $2,275, breaking through $2,500, and challenging $2,600+, Ethereum is changing its market makers, with new main players being long-term investors rather than short-term traders.
From a technical perspective, ETH is firmly standing on the daily EMA200 and 4-hour MA100, with a bullish moving average arrangement, MACD golden cross with volume, and Bollinger Bands continuously opening. The chip center has clearly moved upward. The key short-term range is $2,580–$2,620; as long as it doesn't break $2,430, the oscillation is accumulation, and pullbacks are buying opportunities. If it breaks through the previous high of $2,730 with volume, the main upward wave is expected to start, with a target range of $2,950–$3,200.
Fundamentally:
- ETH rose over 5.6%, returning above $2,500, with positive market sentiment;
- ETH reserves on exchanges dropped to 19.1 million, reducing selling pressure and driving price through demand;
- Although spot ETH ETF saw a 24-hour net outflow of $10.83 million, institutions are taking over;
- If ETF net flow turns positive, it will significantly enhance upward momentum;
- The Pectra upgrade on May 7th will improve scalability and security; if ecosystem applications are quickly implemented, it will be a catalyst for growth.
In summary, ETH is expected to enter a "consolidation → step-by-step rise → catalytic breakout" rhythm, targeting $3,000, moving more steadily, deeply, and further than most coins. Altcoins are also seeing a long-awaited golden cross, last seen in 2021. However, the current market faces two major challenges: first, project dispersion, no longer concentrated in hot tracks like DeFi and GameFi; second, high leverage prevalence, making it difficult to easily find 10x or 20x breakout coins. Therefore, this market trend is more about capital rotation rather than being driven by a few phenomenal projects.
Believe ecosystem tokens' total market cap broke $450 million, with over 11,000 tokens created. Although new "large MC memecoins" keep emerging, most crashed over 50% yesterday. According to Believe Screener data, only 4 tokens with market caps over $10 million remain, down from 6 yesterday, with some major coins significantly retracing:
- LAUNCHCOIN: Up 35%, market cap $300 million
- GOONC: Down 45%, market cap $36 million
- DUPE: Down 58%, market cap $25 million
- UNICORN: Up 56,803%, market cap $19 million
The current ecosystem shows a characteristic of "new tokens repeatedly surging and plummeting", similar to the early Virtuals ecosystem performance.
Although new projects are increasing, with LAUNCHCOIN just reaching a $300 million market cap, $DUPE and $GOONC have significantly retraced. Most projects focus on token issuance without considering sustainability, making long-term prospects difficult. The platform's 24-hour drainage of nearly $10 million suggests that market manipulation is still "profitable".
Regarding Binance new coins and Alpha:
Haven't written Alpha for a few days; recently, points are required, still only calculating 15 days, requiring more daily trades. I'm casually aiming for 8-10 points and haven't earned much lately.
As for today's hot topic $NXPC:
Many ask whether to invest. Honestly, I haven't researched much. GameFi hasn't produced anything new recently, and previous projects performed averagely. Although $NXPC has a strong background, whether to take over depends on its opening performance, so I'm not planning to participate for now.
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