I. Protocol Implementation: Risk Appetite Shift and the "Seesaw Effect"
On May 12th Beijing time, the tariff truce agreement reached between China and the US in Geneva pressed the "pause button" on trade friction that has lasted for years. The agreement includes suspending 24% of mutually imposed tariffs for 90 days, maintaining a 10% base tax rate, and establishing a third-country consultation mechanism. This progress directly stimulated S&P 500 index futures to jump 3%, with Nasdaq rising 4.35%. However, Bitcoin unexpectedly fell back to a low of $100,700 after touching $105,720, forming a rare "stock-crypto divergence" pattern, with BTC recovering to $102,600 at the time of writing.
Data Perspective:
Bitcoin/USD (orange) compared to S&P 500 index futures (red) and gold (blue). Source: TradingView
- Short-term Capital Diversion: Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has cumulatively risen 24%, while the S&P 500 rose only 7%, and gold prices remained flat. As the trade agreement reduces market uncertainty, some funds have flowed back from crypto assets to traditional stock markets, causing Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with traditional markets to reach a historical high of 83%.
- Institutional Positioning "Double-Edged Sword": MicroStrategy and its affiliated institutions recently acquired 13,390 additional BTC, with total holdings reaching 1.19 million BTC (6% of circulating supply). Although this is seen as a long-term positive, the market is concerned about potential "price manipulation" risks from concentrated holdings, especially as the average cost rises above $100,000.
II. Technical Battleground: $106,000 as the "Bullish-Bearish Watershed"
On May 12th, Bitcoin briefly broke through $105,800 before quickly falling back to $101,400, with the 1-hour K-line chart showing a break below the lower edge of the upward channel.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson pointed out that there is an "Alpha price" resistance zone near $106,000, where long-term holders might trigger profit-taking.
- Liquidation Absorption Effect: CoinGlass data shows that if the price drops to $100,000, approximately $3.4 billion in long-leveraged positions will face forced liquidation risk, creating short-term downward pressure.
- Support Range Verification: The 4-hour chart shows the $99,700-$100,500 range as a recent "Fair Value Gap" (FVG), and breaking below this could lead to further exploration of the $97,363-$98,680 range, with a potential pullback of 8%.
III. Macro Variables: CPI Data and the Dollar Index "Butterfly Effect"
The US April CPI data to be released on May 13th is a market focus. Previously, March CPI was 2.4% (lower than the expected 2.5%), and if April data continues the downward trend, it might strengthen Fed rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets; conversely, if inflation rebounds, the dollar index (DXY) might break through its 30-day high, potentially suppressing Bitcoin.
- Gold and BTC "Safe Haven Substitution": On May 12th, gold fell 3.4%, and DXY climbed to a 30-day high, reflecting investors' shift from scarce assets to the dollar and stock markets. This round validates Bitcoin and gold's short-term positive correlation.
- Long-term Narrative of Weakening Dollar Hegemony: Despite short-term setbacks, the "local currency settlement pilot" clause in the agreement might weaken the dollar's trade settlement status. Historical data shows that during the 2018-2020 trade war, Bitcoin ultimately broke through $20,000 after an initial pullback, and its "decentralized settlement tool" attribute may regain attention in the medium to long term.
IV. Market Sentiment Divergence: Whale Retreat and ETF Capital Inflow "Divergence Signal"
On-chain data shows a decrease of 12 addresses holding over 10,000 BTC, with exchange reserves dropping 1.8%, suggesting some large holders are taking profits.
However, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $2 billion from May 1-9, with institutional funds still showing a "buy more as it rises" attitude.
- Retail Leverage Risk: Currently, Altcoin trading volume has surged 280%, but HTX Research indicates leverage remains in a safe range. In contrast, Bitcoin contract positions are concentrated between $98,000-$100,000, easily triggering "long and short double kills".
- Institutional "Bottom-up" Logic: Wall Street giants like BlackRock are forming a liquidity monopoly through ETFs, compressing Bitcoin's daily volatility from 18% to 9%, gradually shifting pricing power towards traditional capital.
V. Future Projection: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Paradigm Shift
Scenario 1 (Optimistic):
If CPI data is below expectations, coupled with increased Fed rate cut expectations, Bitcoin might quickly recover above $105,000 and challenge the $120,000 mark. Institutional acquisitions and ETF inflows will construct a "moat", making the probability of breaking below $100,000 less than 20%.
Scenario 2 (Cautious):
If CPI rebounds, causing dollar strength, BTC might explore support levels at $97,000-$99,000. However, MicroStrategy's $21 billion additional investment provides "ammunition", and long-term holder selling pressure is limited, potentially leading to a 90,000-110,000 range consolidation after the pullback.
Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
Bitcoin's short-term volatility is essentially a tug-of-war for pricing rights between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem. Investors should be wary of leverage risks and policy variables, but more importantly, focus on the evolution of its underlying logic: as tariff barriers collide with blockchain technology, Bitcoin is evolving from "digital gold" to a "transnational value transfer protocol".
Bitcoin's true victory is not about defeating fiat currency, but about proving humanity's need for diverse value anchors.
