Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total crypto market capitalization is $3.23 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.51%, valued at $2.05 trillion.Stablecoin market cap is $242.7 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.04%, of which USDT represents 61.96%.
This week, BTC price shows a volatile upward trend, currently at $103,158; ETH also shows a volatile upward trend, currently at $2,335.
CoinMarketCap Among the top 200 projects, most are rising with some declining, including: PNUT with a 7-day increase of 93.83%, MOG with a 7-day increase of 71.4%, PEPE with a 7-day increase of 45.43%, WIF with a 7-day increase of 32.29%.
This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow: $919.3 million; U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $38.2 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on May 10th was 70 (higher than last week), with market sentiment: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.
Market Forecast:
This week saw continued stablecoin issuance, significant inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF, small net outflows from Ethereum ETF. Due to Trump's tariff relaxation policy declaration, even with the Federal Reserve firmly stating that rate cuts are currently inappropriate, BTC broke through from $97,000 to $104,000. However, on-chain data shows that profit-taking addresses began selling after breaking $100,000. For BTC to surpass previous highs, it still needs the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy and significant capital inflow. Notably, altcoins with strong fundamentals saw high gains this week.
The market remains in a greedy sentiment. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is only 17.1%, lower than last week, making a June rate cut unlikely, with July's potential cut to be observed. With most countries implementing quantitative easing policies, multiple U.S. states passing Bitcoin strategic reserve legislation, and some global listed companies actively "seizing Bitcoin", the 2025 market outlook remains optimistic. However, summer may experience liquidity constraints, so partial profit-taking is recommended.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
On May 6th, according to CNBC, Trump scheduled two crypto-themed dinners this month - one for wealthy political donors and another for "meme coin" millionaires;
On May 6th, according to Nansen data, the top five blockchain networks by active addresses in the past 7 days were: Solana (24.215 million), TRON (5.851 million), Base (5.42 million), BNB Chain (5.243 million), and Aptos (4.889 million);
On May 8th, according to official announcement, payment service provider Stripe launched stablecoin financial accounts, supporting fund transfers through fiat and crypto channels, now covering 101 countries/regions;
On May 7th, Vaulta (formerly EOS) announced that EOS token will be exchanged for $A on May 14th, supporting 1:1 lossless conversion with no token economic changes;
On May 7th, market data showed Bitcoin market dominance (BTC.D) has been continuously rising since March 26th, currently at 65.4%, creating a new high in this bull market;
On May 7th, according to Coindesk, Visa's venture capital arm strategically invested in BVNK, a startup building stablecoin-based payment infrastructure, reflecting traditional financial companies' trend towards blockchain-driven monetary flow;
On May 7th, Japanese listed company Metaplanet officially announced additional investment of $53.4 million to acquire 555 BTC;
On May 9th, crypto exchange Gemini received regulatory approval to expand crypto derivatives trading in Europe. Gemini obtained a MiFID II license from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), allowing the exchange to offer crypto derivatives in the EU and European Economic Area, including perpetual futures and other derivatives for advanced users;
On May 9th, according to Thursday's statement, Bitcoin miners MARA and CleanSpark saw revenue growth in the first quarter, increasing by 30% and 63% respectively.
Macroeconomic Landscape
On May 3rd, Buffett stated that investments in Japan completely align with their investment philosophy and will not sell Japanese stocks in the next decade;
On May 7th, U.S. President Trump stated, "We might renegotiate the USMCA. We will maintain a friendly relationship with Canada. I respect Canadians";
On May 7th, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve ratio cut, providing long-term liquidity of approximately 1 trillion yuan to the market, and lowering policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points;
On May 8th, U.S. President Trump: I believe the 10% tariff baseline is set, the 10% base rate for the UK is not a template for other countries, 10% is a low number, and other countries might be higher;
On May 8th, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that President Trump's request for rate cuts would not affect the Federal Reserve's work;
On May 8th, the Federal Reserve maintained the May benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, remaining unchanged for the third consecutive meeting;
On May 9th, according to CME "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June is 17.1%, with an 82.9% probability of remaining unchanged.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 5th to May 9th, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $919.3 million. As of May 9th, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen a total outflow of $22.872 billion, currently holding $19.542 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $64.108 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $123.258 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $38.2 million.
Anticipating the Future
Event Preview
Canada Crypto Week will be held in Toronto, Canada from May 11 to 17, 2025;
ETHWomen will be held in Toronto, Canada on May 13, 2025;
ULTILAND will host an offline event with the theme "A Star Is Born - AI x ARTFi x RWA" on Thursday, May 15 at Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong;
Bitcoin 2025 will be held in Las Vegas, USA from May 27 to 29;
NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025;
Permissionless IV will be held in New York, USA from June 24 to 26, 2025.
Project Progress
VanEck plans to launch a new crypto-related ETF called "NODE" on May 14. The ETF will invest in 30 to 60 stocks related to the digital asset economy, including crypto exchanges, Bitcoin mining companies, and data centers;
NEAR's Request for Proposal (RFP) for a chain-abstraction relayer will be open for applications until May 15. The RFP aims to build a chain-abstraction relayer infrastructure that will enable developers to seamlessly sponsor gas fees or allow users to pay transaction fees across multiple blockchains, accepting base tokens (such as ETH, SOL) and mainstream stablecoins (USDT/USDC) as gas deposits;
Distributed validation infrastructure Obol will have its Token Generation Event (TGE) on May 15.
Important Events
Galaxy plans to list on Nasdaq on May 16.
Token Unlocks
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 152 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $27.69 million, representing 1.63% of circulating supply;
Cyber (CYBER) will unlock 4.23 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $6.2 million, representing 4.23% of circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $56.01 million, representing 2.25% of circulating supply;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $16.2 million, representing 1.23% of circulating supply;
Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 46.39 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $58.54 million, representing 4.64% of circulating supply;
ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 13.34 million tokens on May 17, valued at approximately $9.9 million, representing 1.54% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors of different levels through comprehensive analysis of crypto industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring, combined with the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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