As market policy benefits continue to emerge, the crypto market is gradually recovering, and altcoins are experiencing their "second spring", with MEME coins particularly standing out: OKX market shows that MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW have 24-hour gains of 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64% respectively. This wave of increase alongside BTC, ETH, and SOL has many diamond hands exclaiming "they're back, they're all back"; on the other hand, some are bleeding internally looking at their significant drawdowns. Regarding future market trends, Odaily will sort out and summarize the recent market driving factors and industry representative perspectives in this article for readers' reference.
Macro Direct Benefits: US-China Handshake and Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut Expectations
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating into fluent English.]Altcoin Season or Altcoin G? Market Divergence Remains, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase
As BTC, ETH, and SOL experienced a slight downward oscillation after recent significant increases, the crypto market's enthusiasm for altcoin season has reignited. Regarding whether we are about to enter altcoin season, industry representatives' views show significant divergence. Some believe altcoins will attract liquidity overflow from mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, leading to an increase; however, some analysts argue that altcoins have already dropped 80-90% from their highs in January and earlier, with recent performance being merely a "dead cat bounce".
Bullish View: Trader Eugene Predicts Strong Altcoin Rebound
Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that although he correctly predicted the upward direction this time, he was stopped out early by volatility, resulting in poor actual returns. Looking forward, reaching $10,000 confirmed the previous $90,000 support reversal, and the market is likely to challenge the all-time high again. This was unexpected, but funds from MicroStrategy and ETF seem to be continuous.
In contrast, until yesterday, most crypto veterans were still waiting (even shorting). With the expectation of a historical high reigniting market enthusiasm, altcoins' total market value is expected to see a strong rebound.
Bullish View: Analyst Says Mainstream Market Participants Are Short-Term Traders, Altcoin Season Has Arrived
Analyst 2 Lambroz believes the altcoin season might have arrived, but market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy, but lack confidence in any strong narrative." He points out that unlike 2021, there are no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders' fund turnover is faster, with almost no motivation to hold long-term positions. Technical trader Moustache is more optimistic. He shared a chart showing altcoins repeatedly experiencing accumulation phases, followed by explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure is similar to 2016 and 2020. "The 2025 altcoin season has officially begun".
Neutral: CryptoQuant Founder Says Previous Judgment Was Wrong, Should Focus on Institutional Incremental Funds
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that his judgment about the end of the BTC bull market two months ago was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows BTC selling pressure is reducing, and institutional funds like ETFs are flowing in massively, driving market structure changes. He noted that the Bitcoin market was previously dominated by veteran whales, miners, and retail investors, making cycle tops easier to determine. Now, with ETF, MicroStrategy, institutional and government entities' participation, the traditional "whale selling triggers top" logic is becoming invalid. Ki emphasized that in this new environment, one should focus more on incoming institutional incremental funds rather than old selling pressure signals.
Bearish View: Altcoins Down 90%, Golden Age Is Premature
Skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that most altcoins have dropped 90% since last December. This week's 10% small rebound has triggered excessive optimism, prompting his mockery. "This is the altcoin golden age we've been waiting for."
Summary: MEME Coin Small Rebound Doesn't Mean Altcoin Season Has Arrived
According to Coingecko data, BTC's market dominance still remains around 60%. Overall, it's difficult to say we've entered altcoin season; "altcoin G" seems more apt. Coins currently performing well are mostly showing "local bull market" performance.
As Arthur Hayes stated in early May, "The question I'm most frequently asked is when altcoin season will come. The answer is sometimes it's right in front of you. HYPE."
